Two teams that have already clinched their spots in the AFC playoffs will look to improve their seeding on Wednesday as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Houston Texans for a Christmas NFL matchup.
There’s plenty of star power on the field in this game, and I’ll be looking at bets on the likes of Derrick Henry and CJ Stroud in my Ravens vs. Texans player props.
Let’s dive into this game and take a look at which players we should back in my free NFL picks for Wednesday, December 25.
Ravens vs Texans props
- Henry Over 91.5 rush yds (-115 at BetMGM)
- Stroud Over 1.5 pass TDs (+130 at BetMGM)
- Andrews anytime TD (+150 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Ravens vs Texans props
Prop bet #1: Derrick Henry Over 91.5 rushing yards
If there were concerns that Derrick Henry had lost a step in his final two years with the Tennessee Titans, he put those doubts in the past in 2024. The Baltimore Ravens back has tallied 1,636 yards and 13 touchdowns, good for an average of 109.1 yards per game.
Henry has integrated himself into an already explosive Ravens offense, making it arguably the most dangerous unit in the NFL. But while Baltimore is equally adept at moving the ball through the air or on the ground, there are reasons to expect a rushing-based attack on Christmas Day.
This comes down to the outstanding Houston Texans defense, which has been particularly effective against the pass. Opposing teams are completing just 58.5% of their passes against Houston, the lowest number in the league. Houston also ranks among the leaders in yards allowed per attempt (5.9) and opposing QB rating (78.1).
The Texans won’t take Lamar Jackson out of the game, but they will push Baltimore to make the running game the focal point. That means plenty of opportunities for Henry.
Prop bet #2: C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
In many ways, C.J. Stroud’s sophomore campaign has been a disappointment, as he hasn’t replicated the mind-blowing numbers he put up as a rookie. But Stroud hasn’t been awful, and he’s still putting up the kinds of numbers that make him an interesting target for prop bets.
For this week, I’m curious about his touchdowns prop. Stroud is getting plus money to come in at Over 1.5 passing scores, a number that would suggest he’s having trouble getting the ball into the end zone.
But he has 19 touchdowns this year and has thrown at least two touchdowns in three of his past four games.
Baltimore isn’t a shutdown defense, as the Ravens are allowing 23.3 points per game. And while they’ve been great against the rush, they’re allowing teams to pick up 6.8 yards per attempt in the passing game.
Opponents have noticed, as the Ravens get passed against 37.3 times per game for an average of 254.9 yards a week, both among the highest totals in the league.
Whether we look at Stroud and the Houston offense or focus on the Baltimore defense, there’s little here to suggest the Texans quarterback won’t be able to have at least moderate success on Christmas. With a generous plus number, I’m taking the Over on his touchdown pass prop.
Prop bet #3: Mark Andrews anytime touchdown
I’m not the only person who realizes that Henry is likely to have a big game against the Texans. That has made the odds on the Baltimore running back reaching the end zone entirely unappealing, as we can do way better on another player who is likely to score on Christmas.
Tight end Mark Andrews remains the chief security blanket for Jackson, who has found his veteran target 49 times for 551 yards this year, including nine touchdowns.
Andrews has seen his role increase as the season has gone on. While he started by not scoring for the first six weeks of the year, he has now picked up a touchdown in each of his last four games as well as eight of the last 10 contests.
That suggests that Andrews might deserve minus odds as well this week. While we do have to account for Houston’s ability to stifle the passing game, that’s not enough to make me think Andrews should be a significant underdog to score — especially when he’s likely the one target the Texans won’t take away entirely. At +150, I can’t pass up this touchdown prop.
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