No that’s not Santa Claus coming to town, that’s Andy Reid leading the 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs into Acrisure Stadium on Christmas Day to take on the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers.
In a game that will have comparable weather to the North Pole and features two of the best defenses in the NFL, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh will likely have different approaches for how to come away with a win.
My Chiefs vs. Steelers player props and NFL picks for Wednesday, December 25 focus on who is set to play the role of Rudolph in an attempt to save Christmas.
Chiefs vs Steelers props
- Mahomes Over 36.5 pass attempts (-120 at BetMGM)
- Pacheco Under 42.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Harris Over 41.5 rushing yards (-111 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Chiefs vs Steelers props
Prop bet #1: Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 pass attempts
While Derrick Henry ran all over the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense last week, the Kansas City Chiefs game plan will likely feature Patrick Mahomes dropping back early and often. The Chiefs' run game has been iffy this season and Isiah Pacheco has struggled to make a major impact in his return to the field.
Kansas City’s passing attack on the other hand sits ninth in EPA per dropback and while Mahomes ranks just 13th in EPA + CPOE composite this season, he’s cut back on turnovers in recent weeks as Andy Reid leans even further into the passing game.
Over the first seven games of the season, the Chiefs’ star threw nine interceptions and attempted 37-plus passes just three times. Since then, he’s thrown just two interceptions and gone Over 37.5 passes in seven of eight games.
On the season, Mahomes is averaging 36.2 pass attempts per game, but that number jumps up to a whopping 39.7 attempts per game since November 4. There’s no reason to think anything will change against Pittsburgh.
Mahomes hasn’t thrown fewer than 37 pass attempts in over a month and the Steelers have been more prone to giving up passing yards than rushing yards this season. Pittsburgh’s in the middle of the pack, allowing the 13th-most passing yards per game (220.7).
Between the Steelers’ secondary being shaky — especially with Joey Porter Jr.’s status up in the air — and Kansas City being so pass-happy, Mahomes should hit the Over on this number for the 11th time this season.
Prop bet #2: Isiah Pacheco Under 42.5 rushing yards
As a result of Mahomes dropping back more frequently than Santa goes down chimneys on Christmas night, Isiah Pacheco is in for a difficult afternoon. Since returning from injury on December 8 against the Los Angeles Chargers he’s been fairly ineffective.
In his three games back, Pacheco is averaging just 37.6 rushing yards per game on 12 carries (3.1 AVG). That’s being pulled up by his 55 yards against the Chargers too.
Over the last two games against the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns, he’s averaging just 29 rushing yards and those two defenses both allow more rushing yards per game this season than Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are holding opponents to the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (102.7) and it doesn’t help Pacheco that he’s fighting for carries with Kareem Hunt. In the three games since Pacheco returned, Hunt is averaging more rushing yards per game (38.6) and has only had fewer carries than Pacheco once.
It’s truly a shared backfield between the two right now and Hunt has been the better back. In the last two games, Hunt has 91 rushing yards after contact and three runs of 10-plus yards, per PFF. Pacheco has just 55 rushing yards after contact and has accounted for zero runs of 10-plus yards.
Hunt’s the more consistent runner and had more carries than Pacheco last week against Houston. I think we could see Hunt out-pace him again, and with Pittsburgh’s ability to slow the run, there are just too many factors working against Pacheco.
Prop bet #3: Najee Harris Over 41.5 rushing yards
On the surface, Najee Harris may look like he’s in a similar situation in Pittsburgh to Pacheco. He’s the starting running back, but shares carries with Jaylen Warren and hasn’t been as impactful as many expected.
However, Harris’ rushing yards prop being lower than Pacheco’s is mind-boggling. The former first-round pick is 14th in the NFL in rushing yards (933) and averaging over 20 more rushing yards per game than this line (62.2).
While his production has dropped off in the second half of the season, he’s still cleared 41.5 rushing yards in nine of his last 11 games and in 12 of 15 games this season.
Even with the Chiefs holding opponents to just 91.4 rushing yards per game, Harris should see enough work to cross such a low rushing line. It’s not as if he’s been terribly ineffective this season.
The Alabama product is fourth in the league in missed tackles forced (62) and 10th in 10-plus-yard runs (25). He’s capable of creating on his own and ripping off chunk runs.
As long as Harris gets double-digit carries, he should go Over 41.5 rushing yards against the Chiefs.
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