The USC Trojans and Texas A&M Aggies will meet in Sin City for the Las Vegas Bowl as the end of the year approaches.
My Texas A&M vs. USC prop picks are mostly interested in the passing game in this matchup. Find out why in my college football picks for Friday, December 27 below.
Texas A&M vs USC props for the Las Vegas Bowl
Lemon Over 63.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Reed anytime touchdown (+105 at BetMGM)- Walker Under 37.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-27.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Texas A&M vs USC Las Vegas Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Makai Lemon Over 63.5 receiving yards
The Texas A&M Aggies defensive numbers were respectable this season, and the most impressive of those was how much havoc the team created.
That's all been significantly reduced with the departure of edge tackles Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart. With that in mind, I suspect USC Trojans QB Jayden Maiava will have more time to find his receivers downfield — and that's where Makai Lemon comes in.
Makai Lemon is probably the best candidate left to fill Zachariah Branch's void. He displayed his big-play ability a few times this season in a limited role, with long catches of 64 yards against UCLA and 70 yards against Rutgers. That's been consistent for Lemon, as he has a catch of 30+ yards in nearly half of the games he's played in. Keep in mind that it came in a limited role, which won't be the case tonight.
While he doesn't have quite the speed that Branch does (I'm not sure many do), Lemon can still certainly put the burners on. He's now the fastest player on the team without Branch, and I'd like him to be used similarly.
This bet is twofold: One part is volume because you can expect him to see around 10 targets. The other part is his big-play ability, and it may take one or two catches for him to break one of those WR screens like Branch.
A&M's secondary has looked vulnerable when attacked (and being rated 119 in tackling by PFF feels pertinent), and it should be attacked more tonight, given its diminished pass rush.
Prop bet #2: Marcel Reed anytime touchdown
I like the Texas A&M signal-caller to find the end zone. His running ability could be used well against a vulnerable USC defensive line.
The Trojans come into this game missing two critical pieces on the defensive line, Alexander and Elijah Hughes, to a lesser extent. It was already a group that ranked in the bottom of college football in line yards and the 70s in EPA per rush.
Looking at the game on paper, you'd give the offensive line of the Aggies a reasonably strong advantage. Reed has run more since taking over the starting job and finished with 35 carries over the last two games. I expect that high volume to continue tonight.
Perhaps just as crucial to this handicap is A&M looking to avoid playing into the strength of the USC defense when in red zone situations. The USC secondary will be as healthy as it's been all season and without significant transfer departures. It was also the defense's strength this season, ranking just outside the Top 50 in EPA per dropback.
Why risk it with a quarterback who threw an interception in four straight games to end the season when he can beat you with his legs?
Prop bet #3: Jahdae Walker Under 37.5 receiving yards
Even with an increase in volume, this number feels too high for a senior with limited production this year.
Walker went Over this number twice this season against Power Four opponents and, in both cases, did it in two or fewer passes. This came against a Missouri and Auburn secondary with explosive play issues throughout the year.
Besides what I mentioned earlier about the USC defense being at full strength and the game script lending the Aggies to running the ball, the Trojans defense we saw this season didn't give up a ton of pass explosiveness.
USC finished the year tied for 10th in the fewest passing plays that went 30+ yards. They also finished similarly in passing plays that went 20+ yards. One of the teams they finished near in both of these metrics was Texas, against whom Walker was ineffective. He performed similarly against South Carolina when he had just two catches for 13 receiving yards.
Walker has more or less performed well against bad defenses this season and struggled against ones closer to elite. The USC defense overall isn't an elite unit, but the secondary has been close, and they should have no issue keeping a big-play-reliant receiver in check.
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