The Denver Broncos head to Paycor Stadium to face the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday.
Denver can clinch a playoff spot with a win, and my Broncos vs Bengals predictions are betting on them to at least keep things close. Here are my best NFL picks for this clash on December 28, with kickoff at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Broncos vs Bengals prediction
My best bet
Broncos +3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Denver Broncos are coming off a tough road loss to the Chargers, where they had an 11-point lead in the second half but collapsed down the stretch. However, they had gone 4-0 straight up and against the spread in their previous four games, and I expect them to bounce back here.
The Cincinnati Bengals have an explosive offense spearheaded by Joe Burrow, but Denver has the defense to hold them in check. The Broncos lead the league in defensive EPA and have been great against the pass (first in dropback EPA) and the run (second in rush success rate).
They also lead the NFL in sacks (51) and rank second in pressure rate, so expect them to get Joe Burrow out of his comfort zone. In addition, All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain is one of the few guys that can shadow Ja'Marr Chase, and the secondary gets a boost with Riley Moss returning to the other corner spot after missing the last month.
On the other side of the ball, Denver's offense has made strides under rookie quarterback Bo Nix and has averaged 33.2 ppg over the last five games.
Nix is a respectable 13th in the league in EPA+CPOE since Week 8. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been unable to stop anybody and are 27th in the league in defensive EPA and 30th in defensive success rate.
We're inching closer to the playoffs, and it's that time of the year when teams that control the line of scrimmage impose their will. Denver is far better in the trenches, and I'll gladly take the points with the superior defensive team.
Get more analysis from Jason by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Broncos vs. Bengals picks and Week 17 best bets from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
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Broncos vs Bengals same-game parlay
Broncos +3.5
Audric Estime Over 24.5 rushing yards
Chase Brown Over 27.5 receiving yards
Denver needs to start feeding rookie running back Audric Estime.
He's more explosive than Javonte Williams, who averages just 3.6 yards per carry and more powerful than the 187-pound Jaleel McLaughlin. He had nine carries for 48 yards last week, and he faces a soft Bengals interior that's 29th in defensive rush success rate.
Chase Brown has racked up 30+ receiving yards in five of his last seven games. The Broncos allow 40.1 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs — the seventh-highest mark in the league. With Denver bringing the heat against Burrow, expect the Bengals QB to throw quicker passes to his outlet options like Brown.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Broncos vs Bengals odds
Broncos vs Bengals live odds
Broncos vs Bengals opening odds
- Spread: Denver +3 | Cincinnati -3
- Moneyline: Denver +145 | Cincinnati -170
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Broncos vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
- Earlier this week, there was a 70% chance of showers for this game, but that has dropped to just 20% as of Friday afternoon.
- Early money came in on the Over, moving the total from 47.5 to 49.5.
- Despite losing last week, the Broncos are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games.
- The Bengals lost four of their first five games this year but have gone 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS since.
Broncos vs Bengals betting trend to know
The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Bengals.
Broncos vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
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