The TCU Horned Frogs were playing their best football of the year to end the regular season. We'll see if it translates to the New Mexico Bowl, where it will take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.
Louisiana is coming off a blowout loss at the hands of Marshall in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. They're pegged as 11.5-point underdogs in the college football odds.
Our Louisiana vs. TCU prediction and college football picks think the Horned Frogs' work in a power conference should be a difference-maker when these teams meet at University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, December 28.
Louisiana vs TCU prediction and best bet
My best bet
TCU -11.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Can the team with the lesser conference pedigree keep up with one of the schools playing among the elite conferences in the nation?
That will be the question, as the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns put together a pretty solid season defensively, inside the Top 50 in yards allowed per game at 347, and a Top 30 team against the pass, allowing just 189.4 yards per contest.
The TCU Horned Frogs passing game ranks seventh in the nation in yards, piling up 317.6 yards per contest, powered by sophomore QB Josh Hoover.
He enters this one just 205 yards short of becoming the school's all-time single-season passing leader. His 67.2% completion rate is 11th in the NCAA.
On the other end, ULL is 35th in passing at 260.5 yards per game and will be pitted against a Horned Frogs' pass D that held its opponents to 192.7 yards through the air.
But Louisiana has yet to announce who will take the snaps in the season finale. Ben Woodbridge (shoulder) has missed the last three games, but replacement Chandler Fields has been more than serviceable, completing 72.4% of his passes with five TDs against one interception.
The Ragin' Cajuns should have an advantage at running the ball, but they'll need a monster bounce back from Bill Davis, who ran for -2 yards on four carries against Marshall. TCU allows more than 160 yards per game on the ground.
Louisiana's offense against bowl-eligible teams has not been good enough in those three losses.
The Ragin' Cajuns mustered an average of just 19.3 points per game, far down their regular season number of 33.1 per contest.
TCU has averaged 31.5 points over the final six games of the season, limiting teams to 22 points.
I see them continuing to roll in this bowl victory.
Louisiana vs TCU same-game parlay (SGP)
TCU -12.5
Under 58.5
TCU hasn't been consistent on defense, ranking outside the Top 10 in scoring defense in the Big 12 at 26.4 points per game.
As mentioned, though, this is a different team than the one that started the year and has held opponents to under 20 points per game in the final half of the regular season.
There should also be enough tape from the last game that should allow the Horned Frogs to limit Louisiana.
Marshall, who also has a strong passing defense, made it a point to completely shut down ULL's run game, allowing just 56 yards on 28 carries.
I like TCU's chances of turning Louisiana into a one-dimensional unit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best Louisiana vs TCU bonus
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More bowl game picks and odds from Covers
- Free college football picks
- Bowl game odds and schedule
- College football National Championship odds
- Heisman Trophy odds
- College football odds
Louisiana vs TCU odds
Louisiana vs TCU live odds
Louisiana vs TCU opening odds
- Louisiana vs. TCU spread: TCU -11.5 (-115)
- Louisiana vs. TCU moneyline: Louisiana (+350), TCU (-450)
- Louisiana vs. TCU Over/Under: 58.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Louisiana vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis
- TCU opened as low as -8.5 (-110). The public drove that number to -11.5 (-115).
- Louisiana went 7-6-0 ATS this season, while TCU was 5-7-0 ATS.
- The total opened as high as 60.5 (-110) and has dipped to as low as 58.5 (-110).
Louisiana vs TCU betting trend to know
The favorite has covered the spread in each of TCU's last four games. Find more college football betting trends for Louisiana vs TCU.
Louisiana vs TCU game info
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Louisiana vs TCU latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Louisiana vs TCU weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
