The Buffalo Bills welcome the New York Jets to Highmark Stadium in NFL action on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is coming off a poor offensive performance but my Jets vs Bills predictions are betting on that offense to bounce back in Week 17.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this AFC East showdown on December 29.
Jets vs Bills prediction
My best bet
Bills team total Over 27.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a 24-21 win against the Patriots. It was a rare poor performance from a usually efficient Bills offense and freezing cold temperatures played a part. Although there's an 80% chance of rain for this game, wind isn't expected to be a factor and it will be 50 degrees which is practically balmy for this time of the year in Buffalo.
Before last week, Buffalo had scored 30 or more points in eight straight contests, averaging 35 points per game. This is an explosive Bills attack that leads the league in EPA/play while ranking second in both dropback and rush EPA.
The New York Jets entered this season expected to be one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. However, they've really struggled over the last couple of months and are 30th in the league in defensive EPA since Week 7.
They are also extremely banged up on that side of the ball with linebacker C.J. Mosley on the IR and five other starters listed as questionable, including All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner.
It will also be tough for the Jets to drum up motivation for this game since they were eliminated from the playoffs weeks ago despite coming into the year with Super Bowl aspirations. Meanwhile, Buffalo has plenty of incentive to play hard since a win would clinch the No. 2 seed and a big performance from QB Josh Allen could secure his first MVP Award.
Jets vs Bills same-game parlay
Bills team total Over 27.5
James Cook Over 67.5 rushing yards
Aaron Rodgers Over 216.5 passing yards
James Cook has rushed for at least 100 yards in three of his last four games. The Bills RB was sidelined by a toe injury when these teams previously clashed in Week 6 and Buffalo still piled up 149 yards on the ground.
It's been an incredibly disappointing season for Aaron Rodgers but the future Hall-of-Famer has looked sharp lately. He has thrown for more than 250 yards in his last three games and he faces a Bills defense that is second-last in dropback EPA and dead-last in dropback success rate since Week 9.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Jets vs Bills odds
Jets vs Bills live odds
Jets vs Bills opening odds
- Spread: New York +10 | Buffalo -10
- Moneyline: New York +375 | Buffalo -500
- Over/Under: Over 46 | Under 46
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Jets vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on the Jets, bringing the spread off the key number of 10 and down to 8.5 by Thursday.
- The lookahead total for this game had the total at 48.5 but it reopened 2.5 points lower after both offenses struggled in Week 16.
- The Bills are 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.
- The Jets O-line is banged up with RT Morgan Moses and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker non-participants in practice while LG John Simpson has been limited.
Jets vs Bills betting trend to know
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 47% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Bills.
Jets vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Jets vs Bills latest injuries
Jets vs Bills weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
