Two teams with surprising seasons meet in the Birmingham Bowl on Friday as the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets take on the Vanderbilt Commodores at Protective Stadium on ESPN at 3:30 p.m. ET.
The Yellow Jackets were picked to finish ninth in the ACC preseason poll, but finished sixth and ended their season by falling to Georgia in eight overtimes. The opposing Commodores nearly upset Texas on the road in a season where they went 6-6 and shocked everyone with an upset win over Alabama.
Our Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt picks and predictions for Friday, December 27 explain why these teams with similar offenses could lead to a very physical and low-scoring affair
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 51.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
If you’re a fan of teams running the ball, then the Birmingham Bowl is for you. That’s not to say that you’ll see success on the ground, mind you — but you’ll see a real commitment to pounding the rock.
I say that because while the Vanderbilt Commodores rank 25th in rush rate, they're 101st in rushing success and 93rd in EPA/rush. They do much better when they take to the air, ranking 27th in EPA per dropback thanks to Diego Pavia having thrown just four picks on the season.
As for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, they rank 51st in run rate and 45th in EPA/rush despite a rushing success rate that ranks 81st. They also post higher metrics in the passing game, ranking 17th in passing success and 16th in EPA/pass.
But while both teams have the bulk of their rosters available for this game, the Yellow Jackets are missing two key options on offense. Leading receiver Eric Singleton Jr. has opted out ahead of a transfer to Auburn while starting left tackle Corey Robinson has also left the team.
That means the Yellow Jackets are likely to lean more on the legs of Haynes King and Jamal Haynes, especially against a Vandy defense that will be missing some key players from the line. While the Commodores secondary can be hurt, the loss of King’s best target and primary pass protector will make it much more difficult to find offense through the air.
While both offenses rank in the Top 40 in time of possession, you’d never know it based on the plays they run per game. Vanderbilt is 38th in time of possession but runs the 11th-fewest plays on average. And Georgia Tech ranks 49th in plays per 60 minutes, despite ranking 27th in TOP.
The Commodores have only 128 plays of 10+ yards, the fewest of any team in the SEC. Their offense isn’t built to score points with quick drives, but they thrive on turning games into rock fights. They beat Auburn 17-7, kept the ball away from Kentucky in a 20-13 win, and even ran the ball 31 times against Texas in a narrow defeat despite gaining just 3.7 yards per carry.
Vanderbilt will want to keep this thing at a snail’s pace and Georgia Tech won’t have any problem with that. Both teams are exceptional at taking care of the football, so expect lots of running, long fields, and a total that goes Under the number.
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 51.5
Georgia Tech -2.5
Eli Stowers anytime touchdown
Not only do I like Georgia Tech to win, but I’m backing the Yellow Jackets to cover the spread. Vanderbilt is simply not built to score quickly or in bunches, and you can’t beat a team like Georgia Tech when you rank 132nd in opponent third-down conversion rate and 91st in early down EPA/play. The Yellow Jackets will eventually wear Vanderbilt down and win by at least a touchdown.
One player who could hurt Georgia Tech is tight end Eli Stowers. The Yellow Jackets have been torn apart by athletic tight ends, such as Miami’s Elijah Arroyo (three catches, 82 yards, one touchdown) and Syracuse’s Oronde Gadsen II (six catches, 93 yards, and two touchdowns). Stowers led the team with 45 catches for 583 yards and four touchdowns and is priced far too high to score in this one.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt odds
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt live odds
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt opening odds
- Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt spread: Vanderbilt +2.5
- Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt moneyline: Georgia Tech -135, Vanderbilt +110
- Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yellow Jackets are just 2-3 ATS in their last five, while the Commodores have covered in six of their last eight as underdogs.
- The total of 51.5 points has come down one point since opening on December 8. Six of Vanderbilt’s last seven games have gone Under 52 points.
- The Under is 5-2 in Vanderbilt’s last seven games, and 9-4 in Georgia Tech’s last 13 games.
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt betting trend to know
Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt.
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt game info
| Location: | Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL |
| Date: | Friday, 12-27-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt latest injuries
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Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt weather
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