There's more bowl action to look forward to as the Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) battle the USC Trojans (6-6) in the Las Vegas Bowl tonight at Allegiant Stadium.
Both teams have significant absences due to the transfer portal and opt-outs, but my Texas A&M vs. USC predictions believe the Aggies are in a better position to pick up the win when the game kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET, live on ESPN.
Read on for my college football picks for Friday, December 27
Texas A&M vs USC prediction and best bet
Who will win Texas A&M vs USC?
The Texas A&M Aggies (-200) are the rightful favorite and will win the Las Vegas Bowl. Their opponent, the USC Trojans, will be without its top two running backs, three rotational receivers, one tight end, a starting offensive lineman, and four defensive players who see meaningful playing time. Neither program has a ton of momentum right now, but the vibes are especially sour for Lincoln Riley whereas Mike Elko is still looking to build momentum heading into Year Two.
My best bet
Texas A&M -4 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Today’s era of bowl games is a unique handicapping experience in which you must factor in things like the transfer portal, opt-outs, and motivation. The USC Trojans will be without many impact contributors, so I’m fading the Trojans in the finale of what’s been a tough season.
The offense will miss the services of six meaningful players: RBs Woody Marks and Quinten Joyner, WRs Kyron Hudson, Duce Robinson, and Zachariach Branch, and RT Mason Murphy.
The defense wasn’t hit quite as hard but will miss CB Jaylin Smith and S Zion Branch in the secondary along with LB Sam Greene and DL Elijah Hughes.
Texas A&M, meanwhile, will have every starter available except for three impact players up front: Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart, and Shemar Turner. While those are three notable names, every position group other than the defensive line will be in good shape.
Will the Trojans take advantage of this weakness? They could — the ground game has been effective this season, ranking 10th in rushing success rate. Still, they’ll be without their top two running backs, and A&M is supposed to have good depth up front, so it’s still up in the air whether or not USC will take advantage.
Marcel Reed and the Aggies should move the ball against a lackluster Trojans defense (75th in EPA per play, 88th in success rate). Eric Gentry’s return to the lineup is huge after he was forced to take a medical redshirt season (bowl games don’t count toward eligibility), but USC will need to put extra bodies in the box to help a defensive line that ranks 87th in line yards, 117th in stuff rate, and 123rd in front-seven havoc.
USC played in a ton of close games this season as every loss came by one score other than Notre Dame, and that defeat featured two late-game pick-sixes. The Trojans didn’t prove capable of beating good teams other than the opener against LSU (27-20), a team A&M beat by 15 (38-23).
Motivation is tough to read in some bowl games, but I choose to believe A&M captain Taurean York when he says, “We need this win. Trust me … We Want to go out with a bang next Friday.”
Give me the Aggies minus the points.
Texas A&M vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas A&M -3.5
Over 51.5
Neither team stands out from a trends perspective when analyzing this total — A&M is 7-5 O/U while USC is 6-6 O/U. Still, the Aggies trended slightly toward the Over despite the defensive front being the best unit on the team, and now that position group has been hit hardest by opt-outs.
The Trojans play with a decent amount of tempo, ranking 49th in plays per minute (2.26). Despite the absences, this offense could potentially exploit an Aggies defense that showed signs of weakness in its last four games against conference opponents. The Aggies surrendered 471.5 total yards per game in their last four against LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, and Texas.
Lincoln Riley offenses typically find a way to produce, racking up at least 400 yards in all but three games. I’m not expecting things to totally fall apart even with significant attrition on the depth chart.
With this game being played at Allegiant Stadium there are no weather concerns, so sign me up for the Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas A&M vs USC odds
Texas A&M vs USC live odds
Texas A&M vs USC opening odds
- Texas A&M vs. USC spread: USC +4
- Texas A&M vs. USC moneyline: Texas A&M -200, USC +170
- Texas A&M vs. USC Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas A&M vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis
- I’m going against the ATS trends in this game as A&M has been a poor bet all year at 3-9 ATS while USC is 7-5 ATS.
- USC typically gets out to a slow start, cashing the First Quarter Under in five straight games away from home. That number currently sits at 10.5 with -120 odds to the Under at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- That slow start extends through the first two quarters; USC is 0-6 O/U in the First Half in its last six games away from home.
Texas A&M vs USC betting trend to know
USC is 1-3 in its last four bowl games while Texas A&M is 3-1 in its last four bowl games. Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs USC.
How to watch Texas A&M vs USC game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Friday, 12-27-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Texas A&M vs USC latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Texas A&M vs USC weather
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