As far as Christmas gifts go, facing the Army Black Knights’ explosive triple-option offense on short notice may be the largest lump of coal imaginable for the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. They were called up to the Independence Bowl when Marshall pulled out due to overwhelming roster attrition.
Every day matters when preparing to face a triple-option offense, and the Bulldogs were shorted a full week of that studying. That will be a prevailing theme in tonight's Louisiana Tech vs. Army predictions on Saturday, December 28.
Kickoff is set for 9:15 p.m. ET from Independence Stadium in Shreveport, with the game airing on ESPN.
Louisiana Tech vs Army prediction and best bet
Who will win Louisiana Tech vs Army?
If there was any doubt about who would win Army’s bowl game, no matter the opponent, it should have been dashed the same day the Knights’ opponent shifted.
Right about when Navy was blowing out Army two weeks ago, Marshall pulled out of the Independence Bowl. Within 24 hours, Louisiana Tech was named as the replacement opponent.
The only thing worse than facing an explosive triple-option offense on short notice is facing an explosive triple-option offense when it's angry. And that 31-13 loss to the Midshipmen has left the Knights angry.
No one with rational thinking should want to get in front of that fury.
My best bet
Army team total Over 30.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The immediate inclination was to take the Army Black Knights at -14.5, and logically, there should be no issue reaching that mark, but most of that faith derives from what should be an offensive explosion, so let’s instead take the better payout of this team total at +100.
Army’s strength is its offense. Yes, Navy shut it down, but no one is better at defending the triple-option than other triple-option teams. Few teams will be worse at defending the triple-option than the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs give up explosive scores like they're candy canes next to Santa Claus at your local mall. If Louisiana Tech could avoid those explosive plays, it would be a stellar defense, but alas.
The Bulldogs rank No. 13 in defensive rushing success rate and No. 17 in defensive passing success rate, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Those are great numbers, but then realize they rank No. 104 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against and No. 89 in EPA per dropback against.
Let’s take that dichotomy and throw it into layman’s terms: Louisiana Tech stops opponents with such frequency as to make most of the country jealous, but when opponents succeed, they succeed in such dramatic ways as to counteract everything good the Bulldogs otherwise do.
And Army will exploit that with regularity. While the Knights slowed down as the season progressed — scoring more than 30 points just once in their last six games, a 35-14 win in the AAC title game — at least some of that tied to facing two triple-option teams as well as Notre Dame all while quarterback Bryson Daily wore out.
His carries fell off in three straight games to end the season. With two weeks off, those should rally, and with them, explosive scores at Louisiana Tech’s expense.
Some may worry about the absence of running back Kanye Udoh, who transferred to Arizona State, but Army has had a couple of weeks to prepare its next backs, and Daily can pick up plenty of slack.
A motivated Knights offense should hang a crooked number on anyone this bowl season, but particularly the Louisiana Tech defense so prone to giving up explosive plays.
Louisiana Tech vs Army same-game parlay (SGP)
Army -14.5
Over 43.5
Without the option of a team total within the SGP menu, the only choice is to combine the Over with backing Army by more than two touchdowns. Frankly, if the Knights score 31+ points, both legs of that thought should cash.
The only reason to worry is that Louisiana Tech’s offense is somehow worse than its defense. It produces scoring opportunities on only 35.7% of its drives, No. 113 in the country. It's quite possible the Bulldogs do not reach scoring territory enough to do their part in pushing this game Over its total.
In that scenario, though, Army would likely be getting the ball back after repeated three- or five-and-outs. Those quick Louisiana Tech drives would only serve to give Army more bites at the proverbial apple.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best Louisiana Tech vs Army bonus
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More bowl game picks and odds from Covers
- Free college football picks
- Bowl game odds and schedule
- College football National Championship odds
- Heisman Trophy odds
- College football odds
Louisiana Tech vs Army odds
Louisiana Tech vs Army live odds
Louisiana Tech vs Army opening odds
- Louisiana Tech vs. Army spread: Army -15.5
- Louisiana Tech vs. Army moneyline: Louisiana Tech +550, Army -800
- Louisiana Tech vs. Army Over/Under: 43.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Louisiana Tech vs Army spread and Over/Under analysis
- Look closely at line trackers, as many combined the Marshall vs. Army line movement with the Louisiana Tech vs. Army line movement.
- The Independence Bowl featuring the Bulldogs opened with Army as a 16.5-point favorite some 13 days ago, a number that peaked at -17.5 last weekend before ticking down all week to -14.5.
- The spread began ticking down when Udoh announced his transfer to Arizona State, at that point it became certain he would not play in the Independence Bowl.
- This rendition of the Independence Bowl opened with a total of 43.5, only moving to spend some of Friday at 44.5.
Louisiana Tech vs Army betting trend to know
Army has gone 3-2 ATS in bowl games under head coach Jeff Monken, not a resounding trend but one that allows mention of the 70-14 win against Houston in 2018. Find more college football betting trends for Marshall vs Army.
Louisiana Tech vs Army game info
| Location: | Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Louisiana Tech vs Army latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Louisiana Tech vs Army weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
