The Denver Broncos are within touching distance of their first playoff appearance since 2015, and you can bet they’d love to take the heat off Week 18 by beating the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
But we’re still going to see the Bengals’ A-listers as long as there’s something to play for, and the Broncos vs. Bengals player prop markets provide plenty of value.
I’ve picked out my three favorite NFL picks for this high-stakes December 29 clash at Paycor Stadium.
Broncos vs Bengals props
- Burrow long completion o36.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
- Sutton o63.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
- Nix o20.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Broncos vs Bengals props
Prop bet #1: Joe Burrow longest pass completion Over 36.5 yards
It looks like Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals have left their desperate surge a few weeks too late, but the Cincy QB can hardly be faulted this year. He leads the league with 4,229 passing yards while consistently slinging the ball down the field.
Even against a talented Denver secondary, I’m trusting Burrow to find Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins for a monster gain on Sunday, and a long completion of Over 36.5 yards feels like good value.
Burrow has made that kind of deep shot seem effortless all season. In fact, he’s posted the longest completion of at least 40 yards in six of his last eight contests.
The Bengals’ defensive struggles have left the offense playing from behind repeatedly, and Burrow has attempted at least 37 passes in seven of his past eight outings, including 50 or more passes on two occasions.
Chase, the NFL leader in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns, has been especially destructive on big plays, and he’s the likeliest candidate to team up with Burrow to cash this prop.
Prop bet #2: Courtland Sutton Over 63.5 receiving yards
The Denver Broncos fell away in Week 16 against the Los Angeles Chargers, and it’s no coincidence that it was a slightly quieter game for Courtland Sutton.
Look for Denver to get Sutton involved early on Sunday. He’s gone past this 63.5 O/U line in six of his last eight outings, including three games with 100 or more receiving yards.
But his numbers have cooled off a little in his previous two contests, with a combined eight catches for 82 yards.
This a nice bounce-back spot given Cincinnati’s defensive flaws. Only four teams allow more yards per game than the Bengals (359.9), and that provides Sutton with a golden opportunity to show off his connection with Bo Nix.
He’s been unstoppable in his last two matchups against the AFC North – most recently, six grabs for 102 yards against the Cleveland Browns – and I see him getting enough volume to cruise to the Over here.
Prop bet #3: Bo Nix Over 20.5 rushing yards
Bo Nix’s rookie year has gone from strength to strength since a rough Week 1 debut in Seattle, and he’s on the brink of being rewarded with an unexpected trip to the postseason.
I’m predicting another composed performance from the Broncos QB here, but I’m more intrigued by his rushing yards prop than any of his passing odds for Sunday’s clash.
Nix has run for at least 23 yards in each of his last two contests, as well as clearing this O/U line in six other games this season, and there’s big potential for the Oregon product to use his legs against a Cincinnati defense that allowed 148 rushing yards last weekend, including 49 to Cleveland Browns quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
It’s not as if this Bengals pass rush is likely to flush Nix from the pocket too often, but Sean Payton has done a good job of mixing in opportunities for his QB to take off — and that unpredictability continues to help Denver to move the chains.
We could see a revolving door of running backs this weekend, with the Broncos leaning on a committee approach, but Nix may up as the visitors’ most dangerous rushing threat.
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