The Big Ten Championship Game is the fifth and final conference title game on a loaded Saturday of college football action, and it’s a great matchup as the No. 1-ranked Oregon Ducks face off against the No. 3-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions.
It’s a game loaded with stars, which means we’ve got to have some college football player prop picks. I’ve found my favorite three for this massive Big Ten battle.
Penn State vs Oregon props for the Big Ten Championship
Gabriel Over 235.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Singleton Over 25.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Warren Under 68.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-7.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Penn State vs Oregon college football player props
Prop bet #1: Dillon Gabriel Over 235.5 passing yards
Dillion Gabriel had another fantastic season, this time leading the Oregon Ducks to a perfect 12-0 record and the No. 1 overall ranking heading into the Big Ten title game. He finished the regular season passing for 3,275 yards with 24 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions, and his passing yard prop feels disrespectfully low at 235.5.
Now, the Penn State Nittany Lions have a strong pass defense, which starts with getting pressure, but teams can counter that by spreading out the defense and running the ball up the middle. We saw Ohio State do that with Quinshon Judkins, and Oregon can do something similar with Jordan James.
However, Penn State won’t be able to sell out to stop the run like they did against the Buckeyes. It’s not Will Howard back there for the Ducks; Gabriel is a big-time college quarterback, and he's done some of his best work against the best defenses in the country.
Gabriel threw for a whopping 341 yards against Ohio State and threw for another 294 against Michigan. James will make the Nittany Lions respect the run just enough to let Gabriel pick them apart.
Prop bet #2: Nicholas Singleton Over 25.5 receiving yards
I’m on the Ducks in this game and one of the reasons why is that I don’t believe Drew Allar is ready to step up and make big throws when needed. This means keeping up with Oregon in this game will be tough.
We saw what happened in the Ohio State game. The Buckeyes pressured Allar relentlessly and limited him to 146 yards on 12-for-20 passing with no touchdowns and one interception.
Oregon is more than capable of generating that same pressure. The Ducks enter this game ranked 11th in the country in sack rate. So, what did Allar do to alleviate some of that pressure? Dump the ball off to his pass-catching running back.
Nicholas Singelton caught six passes for 54 yards in the loss to Ohio State, and I think he could do something similar tonight. Singleton is the more powerful of the two Penn State running backs but he also has soft hands and moves well out of the backfield.
He enters this game with 33 catches for 292 yards, with 243 yards coming in Big Ten play. That’s 30.4 yards per game. His receiving yards prop is sitting at 25.5 for a matchup where he could be relied on in the passing game a little more.
Prop bet #3: Tyler Warren Under 68.5 receiving yards
Continuing with the thought that Drew Allar struggles to deal with pressure, I'm also looking at the Under for Tyler Warren’s receiving yards, currently sitting at 68.5.
Warren has been awesome this season and is an integral part of this Penn State offense. The senior tight end has 978 yards on 81 receptions this season, but the bulk of those yards came in just a handful of games.
In fact, 599 of those yards came in four games against Bowling Green, USC, Purdue, and Minnesota. That means he had just 379 yards across the other eight. That's an average of just 47.4 per game and includes being held to 47 against Ohio State.
As noted, the Ducks have a solid pass rush and an underrated pass defense. Oregon enters the Big Ten title game ranked fifth in EPA/dropback and seventh in defensive success rate on dropbacks. Warren has played below this number in seven of 12 games this season.
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