My Penn State vs. Oregon predictions acknowledge that this is not the Big Ten title game we anticipated, but that is to the Penn State Nittany Lions’ gain.
To a significant degree, the Nittany Lions have nothing to lose tonight. If they win, they will catapult into a first-round bye in the 12-team College Football Playoff. If they lose, they will be right where long expected, hosting a first-round Playoff game.
The carefree approach that should induce will not bother the Oregon Ducks, not with a top-tier explosive offense that has been idling for weeks now. My free college football picks will relish these offenses going blow-for-blow, jumping on the Over despite a frustrating hook.
Kickoff comes at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 7 from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with the game airing on CBS.
Penn State vs Oregon predictions and best bet
- Spread pick: Oregon -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Oregon (-185 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Over 49.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Penn State vs Oregon spread prediction
To be quite blunt, this spread feels too short. And in the shootout that is about to be discussed here, any spread within four points will be considered too short. This will be a game dictated by touchdowns, not field goals.
Penn State vs Oregon moneyline prediction
Oregon will be the No. 1 overall seed in the Playoff with a win. And we have yet to see a Ducks weakness this season. Some boredom in the last few weeks does not qualify as a weakness, not when Oregon still found wins.
Penn State vs Oregon Over/Under prediction
While both these defenses are solid, both their offenses are even better. More importantly, both teams know they produce more with their passing games than their rushing attacks. If quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Drew Allar find any rhythm, this could quickly become a shootout.
Penn State vs Oregon best bet
Pick: Over 49.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
The Penn State Nittany Lions should play loose this weekend. They had assuredly given up hope of reaching the Big Ten title game. And then Ohio State laid that egg against Michigan.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki likely needed to get creative in practice this week to reignite focus after the weekend’s surprise. And Kotelnicki getting creative is a worst nightmare for any opponent. This is a man who earlier this season had his All-American tight end snap the ball and then catch a touchdown pass on the same play.
The Oregon Ducks always expected to play this weekend. Since they beat Ohio State in early October, this has always been the destination before the Playoff. Once Oregon cruised past Michigan to open November, the next three games offered nothing intriguing.
The Ducks expected they could crush Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington without any stress. And they were nearly correct, needing to stress for just a few minutes in a 16-13 win in Madison.
That has been overblown. Oregon had played eight straight weeks, traveled plenty, and these are 18- to 23-year-olds who can get caught overlooking a putrid Badgers’ offense. Even with that disappointment, the Ducks have enjoyed quality drives on 58.4% of their possessions, a bit ahead but not by much of the Nittany Lions’ 54.4%.
Before that lull, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel had not thrown for fewer than 250 yards in his last seven games. Re-establishing that potency will have a long-term benefit for Oregon’s title hopes.
Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar has thrown only five interceptions this season while averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, a combination that hints at a more dangerous passing game than has been fully unleashed.
Given Penn State’s likelihood of getting loose and Oregon’s presumed want to get back fully on track before the Playoff, these offenses should set to trying to outdo each other.
Penn State vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 49.5
Dillon Gabriel Over 249.5 passing yards
Drew Allar Over 199.5 passing yards
A proper handicap would counter those passing prop Overs by at least pondering the corresponding passing defenses. Oregon’s is the better of the two, though counterintuitively Ohio State quarterback Will Howard found far more success against the Ducks than he did against the Nittany Lions.
That was largely because of game state. The Buckeyes focused on their offensive line strength against the Nittany Lions while Oregon instead forced them to open up the game, part of how Howard threw for 326 yards on an 80% completion rate on the road.
Perhaps the most underdiscussed aspect of this game is that the Ducks really should dial things up after their stall of nearly a month. Opening things up again will obviously boost Gabriel’s numbers; it should also raise Allar’s, a la Howard’s.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penn State vs Oregon odds
Penn State vs Oregon live odds
Penn State vs Oregon opening odds
- Penn State vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -3.5
- Penn State vs. Oregon moneyline: Penn State +150, Oregon -175
- Penn State vs. Oregon Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Penn State vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some books opened on Sunday morning at an even field goal, but most set Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite, a number that has hung all week.
- This total opened at 49.5 and toggled up to 50.5 for some of Sunday before returning to 49.5 for much of the week.
- Obviously there is an argument this total is too low, given the above best bet is on the Over, but it should be emphasized again given that this game is indoors and, in a unique way, the comfort level of both Oregon’s and Penn State’s Playoff entries should make for a dynamic game.
- 71% of Covers Consensus users are backing Oregon on the spread, while 62% are taking the Over.
Penn State vs Oregon betting trend to know
Penn State has cashed the Over in each of its last three games. Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs Oregon.
How to watch Penn State vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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