Only one unbeaten team will remain in SEC competition following tonight's matchup between the LSU Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies.
My LSU vs. Texas A&M predictions believe that team will be the Tigers after they win in a high-scoring affair.
Read all about it in my college football picks for Saturday, October 26, and make sure to also check out our favorite LSU vs. Texas A&M props! Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Kyle Field in College Station, with the game airing on ABC.
LSU vs Texas A&M prediction and best bet
My best bet
LSU moneyline and Over 48.5 (+195 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
While BetMGM doesn't offer straight bets on team totals, a combination bet like this can effectively serve as such a bet, albeit far from as certain.
The want is to trust the offense of LSU and its propensity to throw the ball. The Tigers put the ball in the air 9.9% more often than an average team would in a given game state, ninth-highest in the country, per cfb-graphs.
That emphasis is in part because LSU doesn't thoroughly trust its offensive line, better protecting the pass than the rush.
It is also in part because Tigers senior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has quickly become the potent passer expected of him as a former four-star recruit who held scholarship offers from nine SEC schools.
Most notably and dramatically, after struggling all night against Mississippi two weeks ago, Nussmeier led a last-minute, 75-yard TD drive. He completed just four of 11 passes on that 13-play drive, but those completions gained 66 yards, and Nussmeier forced overtime in a moment when a single mistake would have lost the game.
LSU likely will turn to him again to dictate terms in College Station. Putting Texas A&M behind early could skew the Aggies’ offense away from the rushing attack it tends to lean on, though statistically, that has been a fraught choice.
The catch to that is the Tigers’ pass defense has been a relatively weak point this season, first exploited by USC in the opener and never entirely shored up.
Which is to say, this game should become a modest shootout, one wanted by LSU and Nussmeier. If that is indeed the Tigers’ intended game script, then any combination of an alternate Over and the LSU moneyline is a correlated bet, creating unusual value in the approach.
The ideal might be a team total, something akin to Over 27, but taking this combination bet provides the same thought.
In order for this alternative to lose while the team total would win, the Tigers need to either lose a shootout — simply unlikely given which one of these teams and which head coach would feel more comfortable in a shootout — or win so dominantly that the Aggies do not even mount a late score to make the game 31-21 or so.
LSU vs Texas A&M same-game parlay (SGP)
LSU team total Over 26.5
LSU moneyline
Garrett Nussmeier 3+ passing touchdowns
Let the first two legs of this same-game parlay and their payout underscore the value in the best bet: LSU scoring at least 27 points and winning offered a payout of +125.
Adding Nussmeier to throw at least three TDs jumped this up to +260, even though he has done it in two FBS games this season.
Last week he didn't throw a single TD in an easy win against Arkansas, but that said more about the cruise control getting past the Razorbacks than it did anything else.
In every game before that, Nussmeier had thrown at least two TD passes. If LSU focuses on its passing game like it should against A&M, Nussmeier should reach three scores and escalate our correlated parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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LSU vs Texas A&M odds
LSU vs Texas A&M live odds
LSU vs Texas A&M opening odds
- LSU vs. Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M +3
- LSU vs. Texas A&M moneyline: LSU +130, Texas A&M -155
- LSU vs. Texas A&M Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
LSU vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis
- Summertime lookahead lines set this number with Texas A&M favored by 2.5 points, dropping down to -1.5 before being pulled off the board when the season started.
- Sunday’s first genuine lines set the Aggies as field-goal favorites, a number that stuck around until Monday afternoon when it began to tick down bit by bit. -2.5 on Tuesday, -1.5 on Thursday, -1 on Friday.
- This total opened at 53.5 and did not move until Thursday afternoon, then reaching and holding at 54.5.
LSU vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Brian Kelly has been a one-possession underdog only five times in his two-plus seasons at LSU, going 3-2 outright in those moments, also 3-2 against the spread. Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Texas A&M.
How to watch LSU vs Texas A&M
| Location: | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-26, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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LSU vs Texas A&M weather
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