The Clemson Tigers will look to play their way into the College Football Playoff on Saturday night as they take on the SMU Mustangs in the ACC championship game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
My Clemson vs. SMU predictions will be honing in on the two running games, using my free college football picks to show how the Mustangs’ advantage in this area could be the difference.
Clemson vs SMU props for the ACC Championship
Phil Mafah u82.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Brashard Smith o83.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- LJ Johnson anytime TD (+180 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-6.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Clemson vs SMU college football player props
Prop bet #1: Phil Mafah Under 82.5 rushing yards
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has been the most visible star on the Tigers offense, but Phil Mafah has been just as critical to the team’s success. The senior running back has run for 1,078 yards and eight scores on the year, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and eclipsing 100 yards on six different occasions.
However, Mafah’s production has slid late in the season. Over his last three games, he’s run for a total of just 97 yards on 40 carries and hasn’t reached the endzone. That’s not a great sign for Clemson heading into its most important game of the year.
SMU has been one of the better defensive teams in the country this season, particularly when it comes to stuffing the run. The Mustangs have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry for the year and 95.8 yards per game on the ground, both of which rank among the top five defenses nationally.
Dabo Swinney also knows these numbers and will likely choose to put the game more in the hands of Klubnik, especially if the Tigers fall behind. That makes me even more confident in taking the Under here on Mafah’s rushing yardage.
Prop bet #2: Brashard Smith Over 83.5 rushing yards
SMU will likely have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Mustangs RB Brashard Smith has arguably been the best weapon on the field for the Mustangs, scoring 14 touchdowns on the ground while averaging six yards per carry for the season. Smith has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five games and has gone for over 100 yards in three of those contests.
Unlike Mafah, Smith also gets the advantage of a reasonable matchup on Saturday. Clemson hasn’t been great against the run, surrendering 4.6 yards per rush on the year. The Tigers have also been holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 54.8% completion rate, which could push SMU more toward the running game — especially if the Mustangs jump out to a lead in the second half.
Meanwhile, SMU QB Kevin Jennings has been a bit vulnerable to turnovers, throwing seven interceptions this season. Expect Smith to get plenty of carries this weekend and hit the Over on his rushing prop.
Prop bet #3: LJ Johnson Jr. anytime touchdown
If your only goal on Saturday is to win a bet, picking Smith to score a touchdown is a great choice. However, you’ll only get -250 on that wager, so I think it’s worth our time to look for a better value in the Mustangs offense.
Regardless of who we target, the running game is the way to go. Although second-string running back LJ Johnson Jr. hasn’t found the endzone since early November, he continues to get a fair number of carries in most games. SMU showed how versatile Johnson can be in Week 13 against Virginia when he had a total of 15 touches – including four receptions – and picked up 92 total yards of offense.
We can’t expect Johnson to get that much usage on Saturday, but he’ll definitely be in the rotation if SMU turns to a run-first offense against Clemson. With +180 odds to find paydirt, I’m taking a flyer on Johnson to reach the end zone for the Mustangs.
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