The Boston Bruins slowly appear to be turning a corner. They’ve picked up at least a point in four of the past five games and recorded a pair of shutout victories along the way.
A resurgence from Brad Marchand has factored heavily into Boston’s recent successes, and my Bruins vs. Blues predictions see the B's captain continuing to build on his recent in a juicy matchup against St. Louis team looking vulnerable defensively.
Let’s take a closer look at my NHL picks on Tuesday, November 12.
Bruins vs Blues prediction
My best bet
Brad Marchand Over 2.5 shots (-118 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Brad Marchand has hit another level of late. He’s recorded at least three shots in seven of his past eight appearances, over which time he’s piled up eight points. Marchand’s shot volume has also been very consistent, attempting at least six shots in nine of his last 10 games.
Since the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign, Marchand has cleared 2.5 shots in 31 of 39 games he attempted six shots or more. That number is somewhat of a sweet spot for him.
Marchand’s uptick in volume not so coincidentally coincides with an increase in ice time alongside Elias Lindholm. Marchy has averaged 18.82 shot attempts while skating at 5-on-5 with Lindholm and generated shots on goal at a higher rate than when paired with any other Boston Bruins forward.
Whether David Pastrnak is with them or not, the Marchand-Lindholm duo has performed very well. Even with Justin Brazeau on the line, Boston has dominated the expected goal share while piling up the shots.
We’re still dealing with small samples but that trio has generated 24 attempts in 17 minutes and managed an 85.63 xGF%. They certainly look capable of exposing a weak group of middle-6 forwards.
Individually, Marchand has a very nice matchup to keep his shooting success going. The Blues rank 25th in 5on-5 shot suppression over the last 10 games. They're also a subpar penalty-killing team. Oh, and only seven teams have allowed more shots per game to wingers this season.
There are a lot of avenues for Marchand to get there in this spot.
Bruins vs Blues same-game parlay (SGP)
Brad Marchand Over 2.5 shots
Brad Marchand Over 0.5 points
Elias Lindholm Over 0.5 points
Marchand has eight points over his last eight games and has hit the scoresheet at least once in six of them. Of the two exceptions, one was against a Toronto Maple Leafs side that ranks fifth in goals against per game.
The Blues are not a good defensive team, giving up shots in bulk while sitting 27th in goals against per game. Playing on the top power play and on a dangerous even-strength line, Marchand will have ample opportunity to take advantage.
I like Elias Lindholm’s chances of coming along for the ride with Marchand. He’s hit the scoresheet in four of his last six games and heavily correlates with Marchand, playing with him at 5-on-5, on the power play, and even in overtime situations.
No matter the game state, there’s a good chance one of the two forwards hitting the scoresheet comes along with the other.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bruins vs Blues odds
Bruins vs Blues live odds
Bruins vs Blues opening odds
- Puck line: Boston -1.5 (+166) | St. Louis +1.5 (-190)
- Moneyline: Boston -158 | St. Louis +139
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-113) | Under 5.5 (-101)
Bruins vs Blues trend
Brad Marchand has recorded three shots or more in eight of his last 10 games, including four straight on the road. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Blues.
How to watch Bruins vs Blues
| Location: | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-12-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, FanDuel Sports Network - Midwest |
Bruins vs Blues latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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