The Orlando Magic and New York Knicks are both 3-0 in NBA Cup play, and the winner of tonight’s showdown at Madison Square Garden will be crowned champion of East Group A.
My Magic vs. Knicks predictions expect Franz Wagner to lead his team to a low-scoring victory on the road.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should target the Over on Wagner’s combo prop and how to bet the moneyline and point total.
Magic vs Knicks prediction
My best bet
Franz Wagner Over 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
I’m all in on the Orlando Magic pulling off the upset on the road, and that means a big game from Franz Wagner.
The Magic are 9-1 straight up when Wagner scores at least 25 points this season, and the team is 7-1 when he goes for at least 39 PRAs. The odds on him scoring at least 25 are -160, but we can get this combo prop for -115, which is a more profitable wager.
Wagner is enjoying a career-best season, averaging 23.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists (35 PRAs) in 2024-25. He’s taken the next step forward in Year 4, thanks in part to the extended absence of Paolo Banchero. Banchero has missed 16 games, and Wagner’s production has bumped to 25.6 points, 6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, good for 38.2 PRAs. He’s hit the Over in seven of those contests, with three more games of at least 37 PRAs.
Wagner has been even better over Orlando’s last 11, averaging 40.4 PRAs and hitting the Over six times. That includes two games with at least 37 PRAs. Wagner has been more productive at home than on the road, but he’s been excellent over his last seven away from Kia Center. In those games, Wagner has averaged 36.8 PRAs and hit the Over four times.
Tonight’s matchup with the New York Knicks is a great one for Wagner. The Knicks have allowed the second-most points and second-most rebounds to opposing small forwards while surrendering 38.4 PRAs to the position this season. The Magic go as he goes, and I fully expect him to take charge in this crucial NBA Cup showdown
Magic vs Knicks same-game parlay
Franz Wagner Over 38.5 pts+reb+ast
Magic moneyline
Under 215
Orlando has won and covered in 12 of its last 13, and the team has sandwiched a loss to the Clippers between two six-game win streaks. Picking the Magic to cover feels like a smart bet tonight, but I like the plus money on Orlando winning outright.
New York sports one of the best offenses in the Association, but Orlando has allowed the fewest points per game this season. Over the last six games, the Magic’s offense has picked up, and the team ranks ninth in offensive rating and third in defensive rating in that span.
New York ranks third in offensive rating but just 16th in defensive rating over the last six, giving the surging Magic an edge. Orlando is a perfect 9-0 straight up at home this season but just 6-7 on the road. Five of those wins have come over the last six road games for the Magic, and I expect Orlando’s strong defense and ascending offense to be too much for New York.
The Magic have hit the Over in four of their last six but just 10 of 22 on the season. The Knicks have hit the Under in three of six and two straight.
Both teams have been stingy in points allowed per game. Orlando has allowed the fewest at 102.3 and the second-fewest on the road at 105.2. The Knicks have allowed the 11th-fewest at 111.5 and the seventh-fewest at home at 105.4.
Over the last three, both teams rank in the Top 5 in the fewest points allowed. The Magic have done an excellent job slowing the pace and forcing turnovers to win low-scoring games this season. The Knicks have also played at a below-average pace. I’m expecting this to be a defensive slugfest with each team trading blows on the way to a low-scoring Magic victory.
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Magic vs Knicks odds
Magic vs Knicks live odds
Magic vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Orlando +5.5 (-110) | New York -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Orlando +185 | New York -225
- Over/Under: Over 215 (-110) | Under 215 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Magic vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Orlando has won and covered in 12 of 13 bringing the team’s record to 15-7 straight up and 14-8 ATS.
- New York has won seven of nine but covered in only four, bringing the team’s straight-up record to 12-8 and 9-10-1 ATS.
- The Magic are 10-12 to the Under this season, but the team has hit the Over in four of the last six.
- The Knicks have hit the Under in two straight and four of their last nine, and the team is 11-9 to the Over this season.
Magic vs Knicks trend
The Magic went 3-1 straight up and ATS in four meetings with the Knicks last season, and the Under hit three times. Orlando is 3-2 straight up and ATS across its last five at Madison Square Garden, and the Under hit in four of those contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Knicks.
How to watch Magic vs Knicks
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Magic vs Knicks latest injuries
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