With their spots in the knockout stage of the NBA Cup secured, the San Antonio Spurs will visit the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday as the two battle it out for the top position in the group.
The Oklahoma City Thunder stand at 2-1 in group play to match what the Spurs and Suns have done, but a big win by either team here could mean avoiding the wild card altogether and drawing a better matchup in the quarterfinals.
Let's dig in with my Spurs vs. Suns predictions for Tuesday, December 3.
Spurs vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Over 229 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Phoenix Suns have endured some unfortunate injuries this year, missing Kevin Durant for a chunk of time and getting Bradley Beal for just two of the last eight games. Durant has healed, and Beal will be available to play, but now Jusuf Nurkic is out with a thigh contusion, which throws yet another wrench into their plans.
In a game featuring two teams who have been similarly weak on the glass and have posted nearly identical numbers in defending the rim, this could have major implications. With that said, the Suns are currently scoring around six more points per 100 possessions with Nurkic off the floor, and while their defense and rebounding have taken a hit, the differences have been almost negligible.
This team’s been all about shooting, sitting in the Top 7 of the league in frequency from the mid-range and three, and the reintroduction of Beal coupled with the loss of Nurkic should only buoy this offense, given there will be an even stronger emphasis on letting the wings score the ball.
Beal carries with him a bit of liability on defense, however, and the San Antonio Spurs are beginning to pick things up on offense with 118.1 points per 100 possessions in the last five games to rank eighth in the split.
Now that Devin Vassell has made his way back to the court, and Phoenix is essentially fully loaded with Durant, Beal, and Devin Booker in the lineup, I expect plenty of scoring despite both teams sitting around the middle of the league in pace.
San Antonio has been one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending mid-range jumpers, while Phoenix goes from average to below average at the rim without Nurkic there to guard the paint.
We know the Spurs will look to attack the rim with their collection of length in the backcourt and on the wings, but they’re also a team that has shot the three with the sixth-highest frequency in the NBA, which should make for a great matchup against a Phoenix team that's Bottom 5 in defending the arc.
The matchup is great for both sides, and both teams would promise to put forth a great showing regardless with Phoenix getting Beal back and San Antonio coming in on a good run of form.
Spurs vs Suns same-game parlay
Over 229
Julian Champagnie Over 10.5 points
Kevin Durant 25+ points
I’m going to attack the most glaring weakness for each team, starting by taking Julian Champagnie to go Over 10.5 points for a seventh time in eight games.
The young wing has seen his playing time increase in the last five games, playing 33 minutes on average, and even with the return of Vassell, he’s remained a cornerstone of this offense. He’ll draw the defense of Beal, whose estimated plus-minus on that end has dipped this season, and who’s seen the Suns allow three more points per 100 possessions when he’s been on the floor.
On top of that, he’s proven to be a great scorer at the rim even without a high volume down low, and he sits in the Top 11% of all wings in 3-point frequency, which should help him take aim at a very weak perimeter defense.
I’m also going to go after the weakest defender on the court for San Antonio, which is Harrison Barnes, and take his primary assignment in Durant. The star wing has reached the 25-point mark in all but four of his 12 games and draws an excellent matchup against a team that's been dreadful in defending the mid-range.
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Spurs vs Suns odds
Spurs vs Suns live odds
Spurs vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: San Antonio +6 | Phoenix -6
- Moneyline: San Antonio +190 | Phoenix -250
- Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Spurs vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line has continued to drift towards Phoenix with no resistance, though it’s stayed put since moving to 7.5 points on Tuesday morning.
- A slight 54% of the spread bets are on the Spurs to cover, but 83% of the money is headed that way.
- The total climbed rather quickly all the way to 230 early Tuesday but has since been bet back down a whole point during the day.
- The Over has accounted for 65% of the tickets and 72% of the handle.
Spurs vs Suns trend
The Suns have cashed the fourth-quarter moneyline in 11 of their last 14 home games for +7.05 units and a 39% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Suns.
How to watch Spurs vs Suns
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNSW, KTVK |
Spurs vs Suns latest injuries
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