Getting Dan Snyder out of D.C. is a joy that only the munchkins of Oz, or the residents of Amity Island, would know after ridding themselves of their respective unholy terror.
The Washington Commanders automatically get a shot in the arm for 2023 after the much-maligned Snyder flipped the franchise for more than $6 billion this offseason.
Now the real work begins.
The Commanders flirted with the postseason and finished 8-8-1 straight up and against the spread in 2022, which was exactly where the preseason NFL odds had them pegged (season win total of eight and favored in six games with four PKs). That came against a schedule ranked as the weakest in the land.
This year, NFL futures and Super Bowl odds aren’t high on Washington, with its NFL win totals juiced heavily to Under 6.5 and the look-ahead lines making D.C. an underdog in 13 games. The schedule tightens up with the 10th-toughest slate ahead in 2023.
Is there any betting value hiding in the nation’s capital this season? I find out in my 2023 Washington Commanders NFL betting preview.
Washington Commanders futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +6,500 | +6,500 | +8,000 |
| Win conference | +4,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| Win division | +1,600 | +1,300 | +1,300 |
| Make playoffs | +300 | +310 | +280 |
| O6.5 wins | +100 | +104 | +100 |
| U6.5 wins | -120 | -128 | -120 |
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 wins (-120 at FanDuel)
If the early point spreads have anything to say about Washington’s win column, victories could be few and far between in 2023.
The Commanders get their best chance at a W in Week 1, giving six points to visiting Arizona. The next time Washington finds itself as a favorite is all the way in Week 11, laying -2 to the Giants at home. Toss in pick’em lines hosting the Bears and visiting the Rams... and that’s about it.
Many of its close contests come against foes who are improving in 2023, as the likes of Chicago, Atlanta, and Denver won’t take it easy on Washington either. The cherry on top of this shit sundae is a schedule that sends the Commanders on the road six times in nine games between September 17 and November 12.
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Washington Commanders betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
The Washington Commanders’ stop unit is the crowning jewel of this franchise, heading into the 2023 campaign ranked out among the Top 5 in many preseason polls.
Washington wrapped 2022 ranked ninth in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and No. 5 in EPA allowed per play. The defensive line is the beating heart of that group, snuffing out the run, ranking No. 1 on third down, and helping generate 43 sacks behind a pressure rate of 23.1% that will only improve with pass rush stud Chase Young returning to form.
The secondary made leaps and bounds in the second half of the sked, ranking out No. 3 in EPA allowed per dropback from Week 10 onward, and limiting opposing passers to a QB rating of 83.3 compared to 99.2 in the first eight games. That group improved this offseason by drafting cornerback Emmanuel Forbes out of Mississippi State.
What will lose bets: Offense
The return on investment just hasn’t been there for Commanders' quarterbacks over the past two years, so Washington is giving second-year pro Sam Howell a shot. Howell got the Week 18 start in a win over Dallas, throwing for a touchdown while also running for a score in a meaningless finale.
Howell has former Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy calling plays, which is like handing Picaso a mug of broken crayons from a dentist's office waiting room.
The Commanders shook up their offensive line, which was a sieve in 2022, but preseason polls still see protection as a problem. That’s not great when the schedule sends defenses like Dallas (twice), Philadelphia (twice), Denver, Buffalo, New England, Miami, San Francisco, and the N.Y. Jets their way.
The rushing game had its moments last season, but foes will stack the box and beg Bieniemy to put the offense on the shoulders of an unproven passer. Receiver Terry McLaurin is legit no matter who’s throwing the ball, but he’s not enough.
Washington Commanders 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Arizona Cardinals |
-6 |
| 2 | @  Denver Broncos |
+3.5 |
| 3 | vs  Buffalo Bills |
+4.5 |
| 4 | @  Philadelphia Eagles |
+7 |
| 5 | vs  Chicago Bears |
-1.5 |
| 6 | @  Atlanta Falcons |
+2.5 |
| 7 | @  New York Giants |
+2.5 |
| 8 | vs Philadelphia Eagles |
+4 |
| 9 | @  New England Patriots |
+3.5 |
| 10 | @  Seattle Seahawks |
+4 |
| 11 | vs New York Giants |
+1.5 |
| 12 | @  Dallas Cowboys |
+6 |
| 13 | vs  Miami Dolphins |
+3.5 |
| 14 | BYE | |
| 15 | @  Los Angeles Rams |
+1 |
| 16 | @  New York Jets |
+5.5 |
| 17 | vs  San Francisco 49ers |
+3.5 |
| 18 | vs Dallas Cowboys |
+3 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
With a season win total tipping toward six or fewer victories and the look-ahead lines penciling in D.C. as the chalk in only two games, my NFL ratings weren’t kind to Washington. When you factor in one of the nastiest schedules in the land, it’s clear to see why the Commanders sit 30th in my pecking order (27.94/100).
Washington is getting more than a field goal in nine of its 17 outings but opens the campaign as 6-point home chalk to Arizona — the only other franchise in shittier shape. My ratings produce a spread of Commanders -5.5, which is where some shorter markets sit.
Beyond the Cardinals, the next 11 weeks are loaded with more situational boobytraps than all five Indiana Jones movies combined (yes, even Crystal Skull). The late-season bye in Week 14 can’t come soon enough.
The Commanders visit the altitude in Denver in Week 2 — a notoriously tough early-season trip that tests a team’s conditioning. They have two — count ’em two — back-to-back road sets and play five road stops in seven weeks between Week 2 and Week 10, concluding in ear-splitting Seattle. They also travel to Dallas for a short week on Thanksgiving Thursday in Week 12.
Even after the bye, Washington has another back-to-back road set involving a cross-country trip to L.A. before traveling to East Rutherford to visit the Jets. They finally get a break… hosting San Francisco and Dallas in the final two outings.
Jesus.
Washington Commanders schedule spot bet
Week 5: VS Chicago
It’s not all bad situational spots for the Commanders’ calendar in 2023. While I highlighted the perils of the schedule above, Washington does get an advantageous spot against Chicago in Week 5.
The Bears will travel to D.C. on the short turnaround, playing their third road game in four weeks in a Thursday Night Football showcase that only bettors could love.
Bookies have the early odds installed at a pick’em line, while my ratings spit out a spread of Washington +3 before adjusting for any schedule advantage. This Week 5 spread could look very different by the time October 5 rolls around, as Chicago could be 3-1 and Washington may easily be 1-3 — if the look-ahead lines hold any water. This will also be the toughest defensive test yet for Justin Fields at that point in the season.
Star power: Terry McLaurin props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | OTB | OTB | +50,000 |
| OPOY | +7,500 | +12,000 | +6,000 |
| Rec yards leader | +5,000 | +4,500 | +3,500 |
| Rec TD leader | +5,000 | +6,000 | +5,000 |
| O4.5 rec TD | -110 | -108 | -150* |
| U4.5 rec TD | -110 | -118 | +120* |
| Rec yards total | 900.5 | 950.5 | 975.5 |
*Rec TD Over/Under is 3.5 at Caesars
Best prop: Over 69.5 receptions (-112)
You almost feel bad for McLaurin, given the revolving door of quarterbacks that have come his way during this tenure in the nation’s capital.
Despite that inconsistency, he’s flourished: McLaurin has hauled in reception totals of 87, 77, and 77 the past three seasons, and his Over/Under for 2023 is as low as 69.5 receptions (Over -112).
Washington only threw the ball on 53% of snaps last season but with Bieniemy behind the play-calling, his West Coast style will scheme up more play-action and short hits. That could hurt if you’re betting on Over McLaurin’s yardage totals — given Scott Turner’s long bombs are gonzo — but it gives life to his receptions prop.
And, since the Commanders are likely trailing in most games — given those big spreads — Howell will have no choice but to chuck it. There’s no one better to send those passes to than “Scary Terry” and I’ve only seen one player projection call for less than 69.5 catches from McLaurin for 2023, with the consensus north of 75 grabs.
Washington Commanders betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
I don’t know how this Washington team doesn’t finish last in the division (currently paying -120 at bet365). There are already issues at the top of the coaching chain with Ron Rivera and Eric Bieniemy and we have yet to see what the new OC can do without Andy Reid — and plenty of failed coaching interviews on his resume.
So far, it hasn’t sounded great.
Washington is favored by 2+ points just once this year (Week 1 vs. Arizona). Second-year QB Sam Howell could have a long (or short) season with the pass protection issues this O-line has and being as good defensively year-to-year isn’t always a guarantee. Dallas and Philadelphia will battle for the top spot, the Giants will be lucky to flirt with .500 and the Commanders will finish in the NFC East basement for a second straight year and could be just a five-win team in 2023.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
Aside from new ownership, there’s not a lot to like about the Commanders coming into the season — except for maybe the Under on their win total.
Their quarterback situation can be described as "sketchy at best," and Ron Rivera will likely be on the hot seat for the entirety of the season. They do, however, enter the season with an incredible trend that’s seen them go 18-4-1 to the Under in their last 23 home games.
With a bottom-tier offense, paired with a defense that excelled on both third down and in the red zone last season, I’ll be looking to back the Under in their games often, starting in Week 1 vs. a Cardinals offense that could be the worst in the NFL.
Washington Commanders trend to know
If you’re heading to FedExField for some NFL action this season, don’t hold your breath for fireworks. However, you may want to bet the Under to take the sting out of watching lifeless football.
Under head coach Ron Rivera, Washington is 6-18-1 Over/Under at home (since 2020) — a blind 74% cash cow for Under backers. That includes a 2-7 O/U count in 2022 in which those nine home games produced an average of just 36.8 combined points against an average closing total of 42.3 O/U.
The Commanders have an average total just north of 42 points for their eight home outings in 2023, but face some potent scoring attacks with Buffalo, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, San Francisco, and Dallas all coming to the DMV.
Commanders home games vs 2022 Top-10 offenses
- Week 3 vs. Buffalo
- Week 8 vs. Philadelphia
- Week 17 vs. San Francisco
- Week 18 vs. Dallas
