In a battle for the top spot in the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens take the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With Pittsburgh’s improved play thanks to a QB change and Baltimore’s defensive issues, I expect a close game between the two rivals in my Ravens vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 17.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with the game airing on CBS.
Ravens vs Steelers prediction
Who will win?
This might be one of the toughest games of the season to predict because Baltimore’s defense is playing so poorly compared to its explosive offense. And at the same time, Pittsburgh just keeps doing what Mike Tomlin's teams do... which is win.
Still, I think the Ravens come away with the win because Lamar Jackson is playing out of his mind and poised to take home NFL MVP. With that said, I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout by any means.
I have the Steelers covering the 3-point spread in a loss — Baltimore takes the top spot in the AFC North with a 26-24 win.
My best bet
Steelers +3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Despite being 7-2 and on a four-game winning streak, nobody is surprised to see the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 3-point home underdog against the vaunted Ravens offense. But for as unstoppable as Jackson and Derrick Henry have been this season, and the Baltimore Ravens defense has been far from Super Bowl-worthy.
The Ravens are allowing the eight-most points per game in the NFL (25.3) and have given up at least 25 in seven of 10 games this season. That includes allowing 34 to the Cincinnati Bengals in a one-point win last week.
Obviously, Russell Wilson isn’t Joe Burrow, but he’s having a career renaissance in the black and gold. In three games with Wilson under center, Pittsburgh is averaging 30.3 points per game.
The Steelers’ offense went from ranking 18th in EPA per play over the first six weeks to 10th since Wilson entered the lineup in Week 7. He’s been playing legitimately well, too, sitting sixth in EPA per play among QBs since Week 7.
Clearly, Wilson has found a groove in Arthur Smith’s offense and should be able to move the ball against a Ravens defense that’s 27th in EPA per play and 30th in EPA per dropback this season.
And unlike Baltimore, Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the best in the NFL. While shutting down Jackson, Henry, and Co. is a borderline impossible task, the Steelers should be able to do enough to keep this game close.
Led by T.J. Watt and the ageless Cameron Heyward, the Steelers are allowing the second-fewest points per game in the NFL (16.2). Only two teams have scored more than 20 points against Pittsburgh this season, and the defense is top seven in EPA per play, EPA per dropback, and EPA per rush.
Given the Ravens’ defensive problems, the Steelers' defense should just need a handful of stops to keep this divisional blood bath close.
Ravens vs Steelers same-game parlay
Steelers +3
George Pickens Over 63.5 receiving yards
Lamar Jackson Over 43.5 rushing yards
George Pickens might just be the perfect receiver for Wilson. All he wants to do is lineup on the outside, run vertical routes, and make jaw-dropping catches on Russ's rainbow balls.
So far, it’s resulted in Pickens putting up 276 yards on 14 catches in three games with Wilson. He’s gone Over 68.5 receiving yards in all three games, and ranks seventh in the NFL in yards per route run (2.59) as a result.
He won’t be the only one making spectacular plays, though, with Jackson bound to show off his ability as a runner. Jackson is averaging 53.8 rushing yards per game, has topped 43.5 in 70% of his games this season, and ranks top 10 in the NFL in missed tackles forced (31).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ravens vs Steelers odds
Ravens vs Steelers live odds
Ravens vs Steelers opening odds
- Spread: Baltimore -3 (-110) | Pittsburgh (+140)
- Moneyline: Baltimore (-165) | Pittsburgh (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ravens vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Ravens opened as a 3-point road favorite, and the line has seen minimal movement, with a few books offering Baltimore at -3.5.
- The Ravens are 5-4-1 ATS this season, while the Steelers are tied for the best ATS record in the NFL at 7-2.
- The game total opened as low as 45 and has shot up drastically, with most books hovering around 48.5.
- Baltimore has the best Over record in the NFL this season at 9-1, and Pittsburgh is 5-4.
- 52% of Covers Consensus users are backing Baltimore on the spread, while 51% are taking the Over.
Ravens vs Steelers betting trend to know
The Baltimore Ravens have hit the game total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Steelers.
Ravens vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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