Lamar Jackson has the Baltimore Ravens on a roll, after a slow start to the season, and will be the best quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced all year.
Tonight's Ravens vs. Buccaneers predictions lean on Jackson as the Ravens take care of business at Raymond James Stadium tonight, highlighting my final NFL picks for Week 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, with the game airing on ABC and ESPN.
Ravens vs Buccaneers prediction for MNF
My best bet
Ravens -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a mixed level of competition when it comes to rival quarterbacks. Tampa Bay has played three first-year passers in its six games so far, beating up on Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and most recently, Spencer Rattler.
Todd Bowles’ aggressive defensive schemes were able to get the better of those rookie QBs, but Lamar Jackson is on another level — and playing like it the past two games.
Jackson has steered the Baltimore Ravens out of a 0-2 skid to start the schedule, with them now on a four-game winning run. He’s been especially explosive the past two games, passing for a combined 671 yards and five touchdowns while accruing a collective 95 rushing yards in wins over Cincinnati and Washington.
The Bucs rank in the top half of the league in many advanced defensive metrics and have gotten the better of some veteran QBs as well. Detroit’s Jared Goff threw for 307 yards but two interceptions in Week 2 and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts struggled through the air, but he was missing his top two receivers in Week 4.
The last time we saw Tampa take on a capable quarterback, Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins launched up 509 yards and four touchdowns in a wild Thursday Night Football showcase in Week 5.
Jackson is the perfect foil for Bowles’ schemes. The Bucs blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL, sitting Top 10 in QB knockdowns and sacks.
Baltimore’s QB1 is among the most dangerous players against the blitz, rating out as a top-tier passer when foes bring extra rushers, as well as a threat to break off big gains with his legs. Tampa Bay has been burned by the fifth-most rushing yards by quarterbacks, including four rushing TDs to the position.
In fact, last week’s Beltway Bowl against Washington was a good example, as the Commanders ran a similar approach on defense as the Bucs. Washington also blitzes at a high rate and threw a lot of zone coverage at Baltimore in Week 6, leaving Lamar to slice them up for 323 yards on 20 completions — 12.4 yards per catch — along with 40 yards rushing (most coming from a 33-yard sprint).
These teams didn’t meet expectations early in the season, with the Ravens stumbling out of the blocks and the Bucs making the most of a soft sked. However, Baltimore is back on course, and Tampa Bay is rating out too high after hanging 51 points on a broken New Orleans team last Sunday.
The look-ahead line for this game was Baltimore -5 in the summer, and while I believe that spread is too high for where we’re at in Week 7, I do think the Ravens aren’t too far off.
The half-point hook on the field goal may scare some bettors but don’t forget the importance of -4 (fifth-most frequent margin). I'll grab the better team below that key number on Monday Night Football.
Ravens vs Buccaneers MNF same-game parlay
Ravens -3.5
Lamar Jackson 50+ rushing yards
Derrick Henry anytime touchdown
Tampa Bay has surpassed expectations to start the season, helped along by a soft sked in QB competition. Baltimore is back in form and Jackson is a nightmare for this Bucs defense.
The Bucs’ aggressive pass rush has put QBs on the run. Some projections have Jackson rushing for 60+ yards on MNF.
Goal line carries and big runs keep the TD train rolling for King Henry. Projections point to at least one more score in Week 7.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Want more Monday Night Football props? We've got picks for five more Ravens vs. Buccaneers player props markets, including Ravens vs. Buccaneers touchdown props!
Ravens vs Buccaneers odds
Ravens vs Buccaneers live odds
Ravens vs Buccaneers opening odds
- Spread: Baltimore -3.5 | Tampa Bay +3.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore -190 | Tampa Bay +160
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Ravens vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore opened as a 3.5-point road favorite, and that spread has stayed with the half-point hook on the field goal all week. According to Covers Consensus, 53% of picks are on Tampa Bay and the points.
- FanDuel is reporting that 64% of tickets and 69% of handle is on the Ravens spread.
- The Over/Under total hit the board at 50.5 and dipped as low as 48.5 before coming up to 49.5 O/U. Covers Consensus shows 72% of picks backing the Over on MNF.
- According to FanDuel, 83% of tickets and 81% of handle are on the Over.
- The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is clear and cool, with sustained winds of 11 mph getting up to gusts of 23 mph at times, blowing NNE from corner to corner.
Ravens vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
Since 2019 (Lamar Jackson’s first full year as a starter), Baltimore is 22-3 SU and 14-9-2 ATS (60%) against NFC opposition. That includes a 7-0 and 4-2-1 ATS mark in non-conference games going back to last season. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Ravens vs Buccaneers
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 10-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, ABC |
Learn how to live stream Ravens vs. Buccaneers for free.
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