Ravens vs Buccaneers Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for MNF Week 7

The first of two Monday Night Football matchups is a fun one, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Baltimore Ravens for an 8:15 p.m. kickoff. 

My Ravens vs. Buccaneers predictions are high on a Baltimore squad that's making us all forget about its 0-2 start to the season. 

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football, giving my early NFL picks for October 21.

Ravens vs Buccaneers predictions

Early spread lean
Ravens -3.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 4-2 start is a bit of a surprise, and truly, this team could be 5-1 if not for an overtime loss at Atlanta in Week 5. The Buccaneers have scored solid wins against quality teams yet continue to be discounted by the NFL odds.

This is one of the better two-way teams in the league through six weeks, ranked 10th in offensive DVOA and 13th in defensive DVOA while boasting the eighth-best scoring margin (+6.2 points).

Last week’s 51-27 stomping of the Saints and rookie QB Spencer Rattler puffs that number up a bit. That was a strange game that didn’t seem locked down until the fourth quarter.

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens attack is a much more dangerous group and enter Week 7 sitting second in EPA per play and success rate per snap. The Bucs' aggressive defense has been able to get the better of three rookie QBs in six of its games but will get burned if it takes the same approach with Jackson.

Lamar is among the best quarterbacks in the NFL when under pressure and torches blitz-heavy attacks, not only dicing them up with his arm but breaking off big gains with his legs. He comes into Week 7 in MVP form, having passed for 323 and 348 yards with five TDs and one INT in the past two games.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 48.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
As mentioned, Baltimore’s offense is among the league's elite, and we’re just starting to see this group hit full speed after a slow start. 

The Bucs’ defensive prowess is a bit skewed due to the level of QB competition so far. The last time it took on a veteran passer, Kirk Cousins cooked Todd Bowles’ stop unit for 477 yards through the air. Compounding those issues is the health of starting corner Jamel Dean, who left Week 6 with a hamstring injury.

As for the Tampa Bay offense, it's flourished in its first games under new coordinator Liam Coen. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and the receiving corps rank No. 7 in EPA per dropback and top in success rate per dropback (53.2%), spreading the ball around to weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and budding tight end Cade Otton.

The Ravens’ defense is missing Mike Macdonald, who took the head coaching job in Seattle and left this once mighty stop unit scrambling. Baltimore isn’t generating the disruptive pass pressure it once did, which in turn isn’t creating game-changing takeaways (only five).

Baltimore has played Over the total in all but one game so far in 2024, thanks in large part to a defensive ranked 23rd in EPA allowed per play and getting exposed by rival passers. The Ravens are allowing 7.5 yards per attempt and a completion rate of 67%.

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