Holiday shopping is heating up with about two weeks until December 25. And with three kids and family in town, I might as well be putting out milk and cookies for the Amazon delivery guy.
As we check off the Christmas wish lists, we find ourselves in the classic Xmas gift debate: Quantity vs. Quality.
Do you want a bunch of smaller presents or a few big ones?
If you’ve been betting on NFL underdogs the past couple of weeks, you already know the value of quality over quantity.
After a rough run for point-spread pups between Week 5 and Week 12, in which underdogs covered at less than 43%, those teams getting points have posted a collective 17-11-1 ATS mark the past two weeks (60%).
But it’s been the quality underdogs covering at the highest rate, meaning stronger teams with shorter spreads as opposed to a mass quantity of points. Dogs of a field goal or less are 7-2-1 ATS since Week 12 (78%) and pups of +5.5 or shorter are a combined 12-5-1 ATS — a 70.5% stocking stuffer.
Quality comes to mind for my latest NFL picks, taking a smaller amount of points with far stronger teams tabbed as NFL underdogs in Week 15.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 21-18 ATS
NFL Week 15 predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Buffalo Bills (+2) at Detroit Lions
My pick: Buffalo Bills +2
(-111 at Pinnacle)
In terms of available underdogs in Week 15, the quality doesn’t get any higher than the Buffalo Bills. They're set to travel to Motown for a potential Super Bowl preview as short-road pups.
The Bills got caught in a classic situational squeeze during their upset loss against the Rams over the weekend, coming off high-intensity matchups with the 49ers and Chiefs and looking ahead to the Detroit Lions.
If anything, that loss to the Rams is a slap in the face for the Bills, priming them for a bounce-back spot in this big game. Buffalo may have wrapped up the AFC East but is chasing the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the AFC — a badge that could determine who goes to the Super Bowl come January.
Detroit was able to overcome a defense in disarray last Thursday, escaping with a win over the rival Packers despite mass casualties on the stop unit. That group looks a little healthier in Week 15, but there are still gaping holes up front.
Buffalo’s offense is a step up in competition compared to Green Bay, rating No. 1 in EPA per play on the season. The Bills have found an even higher gear in the second half of the schedule, scoring 30 or more points in seven straight contests.
As far as the Bills’ defense goes, it sure as hell didn’t look great giving up 457 yards in that shootout with Los Angeles. Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich admitted that he and his stop unit just didn’t do their job — a rare occurrence for a defense that had checked six of its prior seven foes to 21 points or less.
That’s a big ask against Detroit’s scoring attack, but Buffalo is more than capable of standing toe-to-toe and trading shots like a final round of a “Rocky” main event. Gimme the points and get the tables!
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (+3)
My pick: Seattle Seahawks +3
(-115 at BetMGM)
The Seattle Seahawks are quietly making their way up the NFC standings, pulling ahead in the NFC West and sliding into the conference’s No. 3 seed.
Seattle brings a four-game winning streak back to the Emerald City, where it hosts the Green Bay Packers in a key NFC matchup in Week 15. Despite that success, the Seahawks are catching a field goal from oddsmakers.
Green Bay does have the rest edge after playing last Thursday, but this is the team’s second straight-road game. The Packers are also ripe for a letdown after that wild loss to the Lions, facing a much stiffer test on defense than Detroit this Sunday.
Seattle took some time to settle into new head coach Mike Macdonald’s defensive schemes, but things are clicking at the perfect time.
The Seahawks rank No. 2 in EPA allowed per play and No. 6 in opponent success rate per snap since Week 11, doing especially well at defending the pass. They’ve also slammed the door in the red zone, holding foes to a 5-for-11 count on TDs inside the 20-yard line during this winning run.
Green Bay’s record is impressive at 7-2 SU since Week 5, with those two losses courtesy of Detroit. However, if you kick the tires on those recent wins, you see some Swiss-style holes in the Cheeseheads.
The Packers beat warm-weather Miami in the Wisconsin winter on Thanksgiving, roughed up an injury-riddled 49ers roster, narrowly avoided an upset to the bad news Bears, and escaped Jacksonville thanks to a last-second field goal.
The Seahawks are expecting to have running back Kenneth Walker back in action for what could be a grinder of a game. Sunday’s forecast calls for classic Seattle weather, with rain showers in the forecast and some models calling for wind gusts up to 38 mph.
Seattle is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog this season, but Lumen Field remains a tough place to visit. The Seahawks went 20-9 ATS as rare home underdogs under former head coach Pete Carroll (2010 to 2023).
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Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5
(-115 at FanDuel)
I thought we’d see a slimmer spread for this rare Keystone State showdown, but with the Pittsburgh Steelers most likely missing top WR George Pickens in Week 15, the line has flirted with six points at some books.
For me, however, this bet has everything to do with Pittsburgh’s defense.
The Steelers are by far the toughest defense the Philadelphia Eagles have run into this season, especially when measured up against the level of stop unit faced in the second half of the schedule.
Philadelphia has faced defenses rated 32nd, 31st, 30th, 29th, 27th, 24th, 23rd, and 19th in EPA allowed per play over the past eight games. Pittsburgh boasts the No. 5 spot in that advanced stat.
The Steelers show up at a bad time for Philly QB Jalen Hurts, who is going through a rough patch both on and off the field, according to locker room rumblings.
Hurts' down day in Week 14 nearly cost the Eagles a game against Carolina and star WR A.J. Brown didn’t hold back criticizing his quarterback and the passing playbook. Brown could be justified, as Hurts’ CPOE metric ranked No. 1 in the first 11 weeks but slid to 11th over the past three games.
Pittsburgh’s offense has headed in the opposite direction in a similar span, though those results came against many of the same downtrodden defenses the Eagles have faced recently.
I will say, the Steelers keep playing in close games. Before a 27-14 turnover-plagued win against Cleveland last weekend, Pittsburgh played in five straight one-possession games (decided by eight points or less).
And of course, oddsmakers are handing points to Mike Tomlin. Brace for trends...
Since taking the job as head coach in Steel Town in 2007, Tomlin is a remarkable 60-31-4 ATS as a regular season underdog (65%), including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark as a pup this year. He’s also covered at a 59% clip in non-conference games during this career, with a 3-1 ATS record versus the NFC this season.
Make Tomlin’s team an underdog in those non-conference contests and Pittsburgh is 17-9 ATS (65%).
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