Patrick Mahomes Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Raiders vs. Chiefs

The Raiders have lost three straight games by double digits, so Neil Parker doesn’t anticipate the two-time MVP needing to pad his stats for the Chiefs to improve to 11-1.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker ? Betting Analyst
Nov 29, 2024 ? 10:32 ET ? 4 min read
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes drops back in the pocket.

The Las Vegas Raiders will take a seven-game losing streak to Arrowhead Stadium to face the 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs on Friday, November 29.

My top NFL picks for the Patrick Mahomes odds anticipate the Chiefs quarterback leading a conservative approach en route to an easy victory.

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes prop pick

My best bet
Under 269.5 passing + rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Kansas City Chiefs are a huge home favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13. After letting their foot off the gas and allowing the Carolina Panthers to climb back into last week’s game, I’m anticipating KC playing a full 60 minutes Friday.

While I expect Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to have an efficient afternoon through the air, the likely return of running back Isiah Pacheco gives Kansas City an extra rusher to complement Kareem Hunt out of the backfield.

Although the Raiders have been solid against the run with a middling 4.3 yards per carry allowed and an eighth-ranked PFF run defense grade, I’m skeptical of a 2-9 road underdog that’s lost seven straight.

If the Chiefs' game goes according to plan, the KC coaching staff would prefer that Mahomes not run the football and take unnecessary hits. Scampering for a season-high 60 yards last week, Mahomes’ total in this market is at its highest number since Week 9, and he closed at 252.5 last week against Carolina.

As a result, I believe we’re landing an inflated number. Mahomes has averaged 4.0 rushes per game this season compared to 4.7 in 2023, and he hasn’t had a single designed run all year. 

Additionally, Vegas’ pass rush PFF grade and defense-grade have dropped in consecutive weeks, which also affirms a team that’s packed it in. This could also be the perfect opportunity for Chiefs backup QB Carson Wentz to take some garbage-time snaps to close out the Raiders.


More Raiders vs Chiefs picks from Covers


Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay

Under 269.5 passing + rushing yards

Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

225+ passing yards

Pairing two Overs with an Under is a good multiplier for same-game parlays, and this is a big window to middle because I’m not expecting Mahomes to pile up rushing yards Friday against the Raiders.

The two-time MVP has thrown for two or more touchdowns in five of the past six games, and he’s recorded 225 passing yards in seven of 11 for the campaign. I also value that Mahomes is sporting a career-high 80.6 adjusted completion percentage and a career-low 6.4 aDOT.

It’s the perfect combination to clear the low benchmark without reaching the higher threshold of this SGP. The Chiefs will have their way on offense and turn to the running game to close out the reeling Raiders.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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