The NFL’s version of Thanksgiving leftovers is a standalone Friday matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Las Vegas is expected to have Aidan O’Connell back under center, which has my Raiders vs. Chiefs predictions eyeing up rookie tight end Brock Bowers.
I dissect the spread, total, and props for this AFC West war and give my best NFL picks for this afternoon's showdown.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 pm EST from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with the game airing on Prime Video.
Raiders vs Chiefs predictions
Who will win Raiders vs Chiefs?
Whelp, with a spread this big, this section writes itself. Kansas City is laying almost two touchdowns at home in a game Raiders coach Antonio Pierce dubbed a meeting between “the best team in football against the worst team in football”.
Going back to 1985, favorites of -13 or higher are 424-62-1 SU — an 87% win rate for those beefy faves.
The Chiefs have found themselves in closer games this season and nearly got knocked off as an 11-point chalk against Carolina last week. On the year, the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS when laying 6.5 points or more, but they should win this one outright.
My best bet
Brock Bowers Over 6.5 receptions (-106 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Brock Bowers is having a fantastic rookie season in Sin City and has been at his best when Aidan O’Connell is taking snaps.
O’Connell, who was out with a broken thumb, is expected to be under center for the first time since October 20 when the Las Vegas Raiders head to Arrowhead Stadium on Friday. He’s played in only four games for the Raiders in 2024, and Bowers has been at his busiest with AOC making throws.
In O’Connell’s last three starts — spanning Weeks 5 through 7 — Bowers drew 12, 10, and 14 targets, panning out to eight, nine, and 10 receptions. That’s a significant spike in involvement compared to his targets/receptions before and after O’Connell was at QB.
Bowers is on the field for almost every offensive snap (second most on the team) and has also benefitted from the change at offensive coordinator, with the Raiders firing OC Luke Getsy and handing the keys to Scott Turner the past two weeks.
Las Vegas has been much more aggressive under Turner, and Bowers has seen 16 and 10 balls his way for 13 and four receptions in losses to the Dolphins and Broncos (with Gardner Minshew at QB). Given the big spread for Week 13, the Silver and Black will be playing from behind which means plenty of passing from AOC and this offense.
The matchup also sets up for a busy day from Bowers, taking on a Kansas City Chiefs defense that’s been beaten up by tight ends.
Kansas City has allowed the most yardage and the second-most receptions to TEs this season. Bowers caught five of five targets his way against KC in Week 8 — the game immediately following O’Connell’s thumb injury.
Not all Week 13 player projections are as giddy about Bowers’ receptions as I am, with some models short of five catches. However, most forecasts come in at 6+ catches, with one projection at 6.6 receptions.
Raiders vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Brock Bowers 7+ receptions
Jakobi Meyers 6+ receptions
Chiefs moneyline
Bowers is happy to have AOC back and faces a Chiefs defense giving it up to rival tight ends.
Under new playcaller Scott Turner, the Raiders are chucking it, and player projections are very positive for Meyers, who had 10 receptions last week.
We’ll pour a little sugar on this parlay with the Chiefs to win outright. Kansas City has had trouble covering bigger spreads, so we'll avoid the points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raiders vs Chiefs odds
Raiders vs Chiefs live odds
Raiders vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +13.5 | Kansas City -13.5
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +550 | Kansas City -800
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Raiders vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas City opened as a 13.5-point home chalk for this Friday game and has come down to -12.5 with some interest in the Raiders. Covers Consensus shows 55% of spread picks taking the points with Las Vegas.
- The Over/Under hit the board at 42.5 points and has remained there for the most part. Covers Consensus shows 68% of picks taking the Over.
- This short week puts Kansas City in a schedule squeeze, with the Chiefs playing five games in a 25-day window, thanks to their Monday night matchup with Tampa Bay back in Week 9.
Raiders vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Chiefs are 18-2 SU but just 8-11-1 ATS (42.5%) when giving more than a touchdown in a divisional game since 2018 (when Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Raiders vs Chiefs
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Raiders vs Chiefs latest injuries
Raiders vs Chiefs weather
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