A wild NFL Week 10 comes to a close in L.A. when the Miami Dolphins visit the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.
This non-conference primetime contest has a taller total, just shy of 50 points, and with both offenses finding their form in recent weeks, there are plenty of potent options in the anytime touchdown odds. This popular prop currently has six players priced below 2/1 to score a touchdown tonight.
I size up those odds and dig through the matchups, giving my best NFL picks and anytime touchdown bets in our Dolphins vs. Rams predictions on November 11.
Dolphins anytime touchdown pick
Jonnu Smith anytime touchdown
+310 at FanDuel
Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has watched his role in this offense grow over the past month. Smith drew 11 total targets in his first five games but has totaled 27 in the last four and has seen his snap percentage peak compared to the Fins’ other TEs.
During that stretch, Smith has hauled in 21 of those passes, including a touchdown catch against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 with backup Tyler Huntley under center. Now, with Tua Tagovailoa back at QB, this Dolphins passing game is pumping out the points.
Given the tall total, we’ll likely see both teams tossing it tonight and Smith gets a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Rams defense. The Rams have allowed just 40 receptions to tight ends this season (13th fewest) but have surrendered the 12th-most yards and four touchdowns to the position (tied for sixth most).
Los Angeles almost exclusively runs zone coverage, which Smith has excelled against in 2024. While the bulk of Miami’s receiving options have struggled versus zone, Smith ranks as its top target against zone schemes and ninth among all NFL tight ends.
The Rams have gaps in terms of tight end coverage entering Monday Night Football. Top coverage linebacker Troy Reader is on IR and fellow LB Christian Rozeboom is questionable with a neck injury. On top of that, starting safety Kamren Curl is questionable with a bum knee.
Touchdown projections for Smith call for between 0.2 and 0.31, with my number at 0.26 TDs. That forecast could have a higher ceiling should Miami wideout Tyreek Hill sit out (he’s a GTD). As it stands, Smith is as short as +220 at some books but you can grab him +320 at FanDuel.
Rams anytime touchdown pick
Puka Nacua anytime touchdown
+150 at FanDuel
Puka Nacua is champing at the bit to get back on the field after an abbreviated appearance in Week 9. The Rams receiver was ejected after getting into a fight with a Seattle defender in the second quarter, finishing that game with one catch on four targets.
Nacua was coming off a triumphant return in Week 8, in which he caught seven of nine passes his way for 106 yards against Minnesota on Thursday Night Football. The 6-foot-2 second-year star missed the bulk of the season after suffering a knee injury in Week 1.
Tonight, he and the Rams take on a dreadful Miami pass defense. The Dolphins sit near the bottom of most defensive metrics, including 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback. Things have gotten even worse the past two outings, with the Fins getting roasted for 538 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air.
Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay will force the Dolphins to pick their poison between Nacua and veteran WR Cooper Kupp. The Rams have ramped up the passing game since getting those top two targets back, with QB Matthew Stafford attempting 78 passes over the past two games.
Nacua’s lengthy absence has tempered his anytime touchdown odds, even though he’s involved in this offense just as much as anyone when on the field. Player forecasts range from 0.4 to 0.45 touchdowns, with my projection at 0.42 TDs. His anytime touchdown odds for tonight sit as low as +138, which is just above where they closed for Week 9, but is as high as +150 for MNF.
Not intended for use in MA.
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