The Cleveland Browns’ 2022 campaign was a mess, but they kind of knew it would be the moment they inked QB Deshaun Watson to a monster contract.
Cleveland was well aware Watson would miss a chunk of the season due to suspension following his sexual assault saga, putting focus on 2023 and what this team could be the coming year. Well, we’re here now.
The Browns look great on paper, with an offense loaded in talent on the line and at the skill positions, as well as a new defensive coordinator injecting the stop unit with chaos-causing schemes. All the preseason chatter around Watson’s return to form is positive and the betting markets concur, with Over action on his NFL odds props.
But there’s one glaring issue when it comes to the Browns: they’re the Browns.
This is a franchise that seemingly shoots itself in the foot, regardless of talent or expectations. It played in eight games decided by one possession in 2022 (8 points or less) and won just two of those outings (needing overtime for one), including a 1-4 SU mark in games decided by a field goal or less.
What’s worse, the Browns posted a 3-5 ATS count in those tight tilts which is more of the same shit from the “Factory of Sadness”, which went 3-6 ATS in one-possession games in 2021.
Oddsmakers are on the fence when it comes to Cleveland curbing that curse, with a season win total at a juicy nine victories, lookahead lines calling for at least eight wins, and the NFL futures odds giving the Browns a 50/50 shot at making the playoffs.
I make a hard ruling on this team with my 2023 Cleveland Browns NFL betting preview.
Cleveland Browns futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +4,000 | +2,800 | +3,500 |
| Win conference | +2,200 | +1,700 | +2,000 |
| Win division | +425 | +390 | +380 |
| Make playoffs | +115 | +104 | +100 |
| O9.5 wins | +115 | +108 | +125 |
| U9.5 wins | -135 | -134 | -145 |
Best futures bet: Miss playoffs -120
If you’ve taken in my NFL betting previews for Cincinnati and Baltimore, you’ll know I’m higher on those AFC North members and have both making the postseason cut.
The Browns do have an early bye in Week 5 to iron out any wrinkles before the schedule eventually throws five road games in seven weeks at them. The back third of the calendar has Cleveland running into some contending teams or at least clubs that will be pushing for the postseason, with Jacksonville, Chicago, the Jets, and Cincinnati in the final five weeks.
Ten wins from Cleveland may be a battle if Watson doesn’t make good on his money and the defense struggles to adapt to new coordinator Jim Schwartz. And truth be told, 10 wins ain’t going to cut it in a jammed-up AFC.
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Cleveland Browns betting overview
What will win bets: Offense
Deshaun Watson’s potential as a passer gives Cleveland’s offense as high a ceiling as any team in the NFL. Before being exposed as a greaseball, Watson was a Top-3 quarterback in the league. Given the talent in his receiving corps, even if Watson plays up to 60% of that potential, that’s a pretty good air attack. But it’s not all on Watson.
Running back Nick Chubb is the offseason darling for many NFL wiseguys, getting big love to lead the NFL in rushing, rushing touchdowns and earn Offensive Player of the Year honors. His preseason player props are on the rise with action on the Over, and with no Kareem Hunt stealing carries and red-zone touches, Chubb is a dying breed as a feature back that can carry a team.
Both the passing and rushing playbooks play behind one of the best offensive lines in football, with the Browns’ protectors ranked out Top 3 in most preseason polls. Given all this, Cleveland is worth a wager to go Over 384.5 total points on the season (-115) and a flyer to lead the NFL in scoring at +5,000 odds.
What will lose bets: Kicking
For a team that can’t seem to get over the hump in close games, the Browns are leaving a lot to chance with the wonky leg of second-year kicker Cade York.
As a rookie, York made good on just 24 of 32 field goal attempts (and 35 of 37 on PATs) but is back to straighten himself out in 2023, under the tutelage of new special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone.
York made an instant impact on Browns bettors with a game-winning kick against Carolina in Week 1 but then sputtered with multiple misses costing Cleveland, as he not only acclimated to the pressure of the pros but also the nasty weather in the AFC North.
The final nine games of the 2023 campaign (November to January) see seven of those contests played in cold outdoor venues, and all of those games have spreads of 3.5 or tighter — essentially coming down to a field goal.
Should York continue to botch those boots, he may not be around to see November anyways.
Cleveland Browns 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Cincinnati Bengals |
+2.5 |
| 2 | @  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+1 |
| 3 | vs  Tennessee Titans |
-4.5 |
| 4 | vs  Baltimore Ravens |
-1 |
| 5 | BYE | |
| 6 | vs  San Francisco 49ers |
+1 |
| 7 | @  Indianapolis Colts |
-3 |
| 8 | @  Seattle Seahawks |
+2 |
| 9 | vs  Arizona Cardinals |
-7 |
| 10 | @ Baltimore Ravens |
+3 |
| 11 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers |
-1.5 |
| 12 | @  Denver Broncos |
+1 |
| 13 | @  Los Angeles Rams |
-1.5 |
| 14 | vs  Jacksonville Jaguars |
-1 |
| 15 | vs  Chicago Bears |
-3.5 |
| 16 | @  Houston Texans |
-4 |
| 17 | vs  New York Jets |
+1 |
| 18 | @ Cincinnati Bengals |
+3.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
When measuring a team’s season win total against the number of games they’re favored to win, you get some notable discrepancies. When it comes to Cleveland, however, it would appear it’s destined for nine wins.
The early-bird lines have the Browns laying the points in eight games with two others pegged as pick’ems and their season win total is set at nine (Over -125).
Cleveland is working in a new offense, tailored to Watson, and a new defense with DC Jim Schwartz turning up the intensity in hopes of producing more than the measly 34 sacks and dull pressure rate of 18.2% in 2022.
They put those changes to the test early on with three divisional games in the first four weeks. Under head coach Kevin Stefanski, the franchise is 9-9 SU against AFC North rivals but a dismal 5-13 ATS. Last season, however, Cleveland went 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS against those rivals (more on this below).
The Browns host Cincinnati in Week 1 with books setting Cleveland as a 2.5-point home underdog. My power ratings pump out a spread closer to Bengals -4, but you have to put a little extra respect on divisional matchups, especially with Cleveland going 3-0 SU and ATS versus AFC North foes at home last season.
The middle of the slate will be the proving ground for the Browns. They come off the bye to face San Francisco as 1-point home dogs in Week 6, then play five of their next seven away from home. Cleveland is just 5-11 SU as a visitor the past two season, but 8-8 ATS in those roadies.
Cleveland Browns schedule spot bet
Week 13 @ L.A. Rams
As mentioned, the Browns will be living out of a suitcase from October 22 to December 3 with five road games in seven weeks. That busy sked concludes on the West Coast with a trip to SoFi Stadium to play the Rams.
This Week 13 meeting will be the second straight road game for Cleveland after playing in Denver the week before, and is the third road game in four weeks (at Baltimore in Week 10, versus Pittsburgh Week 11). Whether or not the Browns go from Denver to L.A. remains to be seen, but they could stay on that side of the country to avoid the back and forth.
Los Angeles sits near the bottom of most 2023 projections, and while the lookahead line says Cleveland -3, this spread could get pumped up before the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. My ratings have this line at Browns -5, showing how bookies are tempering expectations in the final stop of a rough road stretch.
Star power: Deshaun Watson props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +3,000 | +2,500 | +4,000 |
| OPOY | +10,000 | +25,000 | +4,500 |
| Pass yards leader | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| Pass TD leader | +4,000 | +3,000 | OTB |
| O25.5 pass TD | -110 | -116* | +100 |
| U25.5 pass TD | -110 | -110* | -130 |
| Pass yards total | 3,650.5 | 3,625.5 | 3,700.5 |
*Passing TD total is 24.5 at FanDuel
Best prop: Over 3,625.5 Yards Passing -112
Watson’s abbreviated work in 2022 wasn’t anything to write home about but there were flashes of the former MVP contender in those six showings, especially on his connections to WR1 Amari Cooper.
Cleveland added to Watson’s options by trading for WR Elijah Moore, signing Marquise Goodwin, and drafting Cedric Tillman out of Tennessee. The Browns still have the “Law Firm” of Donovan Peoples-Jones and TE David Njoku, who were No. 2 and No. 3 in receptions with seven combined touchdowns in 2022.
Stefanski and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt are gushing over Watson’s improvements and offseason work, utilizing a playbook that leverages their QBs strength. At his peak, Deshaun was passing for 4,823 yards back in 2020, and this year’s passing yards Over/Under is asking for a lot less.
Outside of the six-game AFC North slate and run-ins with San Francisco, Denver, and the Jets, the Browns play some pretty soft defenses with eight opponents ranked 20th or worse in preseason polling.
To put this prop into perspective, a half-assed Aaron Rodgers posted 3,695 yards through the air last season and Russell Wilson wasn’t too far off this mark with 3,524 yards in a terrible, terrible debut in Denver.
Watson’s passing market has been a hot commodity this summer, with some books sitting as high as 3,700.5 yards O/U after adjusting to Over action.
Cleveland Browns betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
This offense is going to look a lot different in 2023. Deshaun Watson saw too many snaps under center last season and will get more looks out of the shotgun, which should increase his rush/scramble opportunities.
His rush totals plummeted to 19.5 yards a season ago and with Nick Chubb looking at a monster year rushing, Watson could leverage that into more yards on the ground himself. Kevin Stefanski, Watson, and Chubb have all mentioned getting the RB more involved in the passing game and I might be looking at some alt-receiving total Overs early in the season before the markets adjust.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
It’s a very realistic possibility that the Browns will finish the season with both the worst defense AND worst quarterback in the division. Although it was just six games, Deshaun Watson’s first season in Cleveland should be regarded as a major disappointment after the team averaged a pathetic 16.3 points per game in his starts.
While Russell Wilson was a punching bag for most of the season, Watson actually produced worse stats, but was given a pass by many due to “rust.” If Watson doesn’t quickly return to the form that earned him the most guaranteed money in NFL history, the Browns could be on a fast track to once again becoming the laughingstock of the league.
Cleveland Browns trend to know
Any long-running trends with teeth are tough to come by for Cleveland, considering the shakeup at quarterback as well as a new scheme from Schwartz on defense.
That said, divisional road games continue to be a sore spot for Browns bettors. Cleveland went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road against AFC North opponents last season and is just 2-7 SU and ATS in those situations under Stefanski.
It’s not all Stefanski’s fault either. The Browns have been pure poo-poo in divisional road games for a while now, owning a 5-19 SU and 7-16-1 ATS count (31%) when visiting AFC North rivals since 2015.
Cleveland Browns divisional road games
