No team has been a better NFL bet than the Cincinnati Bengals over the past three seasons, boasting a 36-19-1 ATS mark overall (65.5%).
Even with the Super Bowl hangover looming over the 2022 campaign, Cincinnati kept the cash flowing with a 13-6 record against the spread. Expectations — and point spreads — are higher in 2023, with the Bengals laying the points in 13 of their 17 regular season contests.
All the NFL futures markets hold Cincy to a high standard as well, with the team priced as a Top-5 Super Bowl odds contender, the third favorite in the conference, and the frontrunner to win its third straight AFC North title — a feat that no team has accomplished since the mid-90s.
Consistency could be Cincinnati’s superpower. The coaching staff stayed together, the offense has the same headlining stars, and the schedule doesn’t throw many twists and turns at the Bengals. If Lou Anarumo’s defense can continue overachieving, the Queen City will continue to be king of the sportsbook every Sunday.
Here’s my 2023 Cincinnati Bengals NFL betting preview.
Cincinnati Bengals futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1,100 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| Win conference | +600 | +500 | +500 |
| Win division | +150 | +130 | +135 |
| Make playoffs | -285 | -310 | -350 |
| O11.5 wins | +125 | +110 | +105 |
| U11.5 wins | -150 | -134 | -125 |
Best futures bet: Win AFC North (+150)
Look-ahead spreads and season win totals have Cincinnati pegged for about a dozen wins this season, which puts it past Baltimore in the division pecking order.
Not only has Cincy been dominant overall the past two seasons, but it’s held its own against a very competitive AFC North with a collective 7-5 SU count and an 8-4 ATS record.
What’s more impressive is that this roster has been snake-bitten, with aliments to the offensive and defensive lines, and keeps cranking out the victories.
The Bengals do have the toughest SOS (No. 17) among its divisional brethren but the calendar treats Cincinnati with care, void of any real tough situational spots or scheduling challenges. My initial NFL ratings have it at No. 4 in the league and well ahead of the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns.
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Cincinnati Bengals betting overview
What will win bets: Joe Burrow
Is Joe Burrow underrated?
Burrow is part of the post-Brady quarterback renaissance, along with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert, so his accomplishments can get lost in the sauce. As far as football bettors are concerned, Joe is that dude.
His stellar second-half play and best-in-class fourth-quarter fortitude (ranked No. 1 among QBs in EPA+CPOE in 4Q) secured the bag for Bengals bettors, with Cincinnati ranking No. 2 in DVOA in the final frame last season.
The Bengals also boasted the fourth-ranked DVOA in “late and close” games at Football Outsiders, anchored in the ice waters that flow through Burrow’s veins.
Keeping Burrow clean is a revamped offensive line that will do a better job than the 92 sacks allowed (holy hell) over the past two seasons. The pass protection isn’t elite but just giving Burrow a couple extra breaths would send a surge through his already impressive output.
Every Sunday, social media is flooded with, “Which QB would you want with your bet on the line?” posts. Any answer but Burrow is wrong.
What will lose bets: Defense
This is a tricky take, considering we said defense was the reason why the Bengals would win bets last year. Cincinnati’s stop unit doesn’t look elite on paper but like Shaq and the foul line, it comes through when it has to.
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has made lemonade during his tenure with the Bengals, squeezing every bit of goodness from a unit that heads into the 2023 season ranked middle of the pack. While consistency is rife in Cincy, the stop unit does have some missing pieces from last year’s squad that finished in the top third of the league in a lot of those fancy advanced stats.
Cincinnati’s secondary is looking to plug and play after losing two starting safeties. The pass rush absolutely needs to cause more chaos if it’s going to bail out any weak spots in that pass defense, recording the fourth-fewest sacks in 2022.
The rest of the division is better on offense than it was last season, with the Ravens restocked, Deshaun Watson’s first full season, and Kenny Pickett picking up where he left off. Anarumo’s schemes could be tearing at the seams this year.
Cincinnati Bengals 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Cleveland Browns |
-2.5 |
| 2 | vs  Baltimore Ravens |
-3.5 |
| 3 | vs  Los Angeles Rams |
-7.5 |
| 4 | @  Tennessee Titans |
-4.5 |
| 5 | @  Arizona Cardinals |
-7.5 |
| 6 | vs  Seattle Seahawks |
-4.5 |
| 7 | BYE | |
| 8 | @  San Francisco 49ers |
+1 |
| 9 | vs  Buffalo Bills |
-1 |
| 10 | vs  Houston Texans |
-9.5 |
| 11 | @ Baltimore Ravens |
-1 |
| 12 | vs  Pittsburgh Steelers |
-4.5 |
| 13 | @  Jacksonville Jaguars |
-1 |
| 14 | vs  Indianapolis Colts |
-9 |
| 15 | vs  Minnesota Vikings |
-5 |
| 16 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
-2.5 |
| 17 | @  Kansas City Chiefs |
+3 |
| 18 | vs Cleveland Browns |
-3.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
Cincinnati is tabbed with one of the biggest win totals on the board at 11.5 (Under -130) and the look-ahead lines have the Bengals laying the points in 13 of their 17 games with two other matchups pegged as pick’ems. Cincinnati is 15-9 ATS as a favorite over the past three seasons (62.5%).
My NFL power ratings are also kind to Cincy, installing it as the No. 4 team in the league (75.0/100), behind just the Chiefs, Eagles and 49ers.
That rating not only reflects the appetite of the market but also a smooth schedule that doesn’t pinch the Bengals with any nasty situational spots. That said, Cincinnati still has some tests along the way with San Francisco, Buffalo, and Kansas City on deck — all of which also rank Top 5 in my ratings — plus the usual grind of the AFC North.
The schedule tosses the Bengals right into the divisional fires, sending them to Cleveland for a Battle of Ohio in Week 1.
Those NFL odds have Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite on the road, a role the team has relished with a 7-3 ATS mark as road chalk the past three years. Giving respect to divisional matchups, my ratings price this more in the -3 to -3.5 range.
Cincinnati Bengals schedule spot bet
Week 10: vs Houston
A tangy sandwich spot awaits the Bengals in Week 10. Cincinnati is coming off a primetime showdown with an AFC nemesis in Buffalo on Sunday Night Football in Week 9, adding an element of letdown, while also looking past Houston to a short turnaround to play the Ravens on Thursday in Week 11.
The early-bird lines are already packing on the points for this game, with the Bengals currently -9.5. However, given the trajectory of these teams (and my ratings producing a spread of -14), we’re likely dealing with a double-digit spread come November 12.
Cincinnati has been money as a fave since 2020 but is just 1-4 ATS when giving more than a touchdown (-7.5 or higher) in that span and is battling the dreaded combo of a letdown and look-ahead spot in Week 10.
Star power: Joe Burrow props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +750 | +700 | +750 |
| OPOY | +4,000 | +3,500 | +2,500 |
| Pass yards leader | +900 | +750 | +600 |
| Pass TD leader | +450 | +600 | OTB |
| O33.5 pass TD | -110 | -112* | -115 |
| U33.5 pass TD | -110 | -112* | -115 |
| Pass yards total | 4,425.5 | 4,300.5 | 4,425.5 |
*Passing TD total is 32.5 at FanDuel
Best prop: Most passing touchdowns (+450)
We’ve praised Burrow enough already, but we’ve yet to mention that he’s got the best receiving corps in the NFL on the other end of those pinpoint throws.
Ja’Marr Chase is the favorite to lead the league in touchdown catches after snagging nine in 12 games last year and Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins combined for a dozen regular season scores in 2022. Burrow closed last season with 35 touchdown passes –— tied for second behind Mahomes’ 41 TDs.
On top of that, the Bengals’ schedule sees them playing just four foes ranked Top 10 in defensive projections for 2023 while eight other opponents are 20th or worse, including the likes of Houston, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Arizona, and the L.A. Rams.
Cincinnati Bengals betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
This could easily be the best offense in football: Joe Burrow has no injuries/distractions entering this season as he has in all three of his previous years. Both he and Ja’Marr Chase are in contract years and the addition of LT Orlando Brown gives Burrow the best O-line he’s been behind in Cincinnati.
The defense lost three starters in the secondary (both starting safeties) so a weakness in the defensive middle could keep the offense aggressive for 60 minutes. Being the highest-scoring offense in football is possible in 2023.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
The Bengals are as worthy as any team in the NFL for a Super Bowl futures bet. We know about the flashy offense, which will once again be one of the best in the NFL, but don’t sleep on this defense.
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo missed out on a head coaching job, which is a major gain for the Bengals, who ranked fifth in points allowed last season. With five playoff wins in the last two seasons, a winning culture has been established for a young core that continues to build continuity.
Anything short of another conference title game appearance for the Bengals should be considered a disappointment.
Cincinnati Bengals trend to know
Bettors plunder with the Under whenever the Bengals hit the highway.
In four seasons under head coach Zac Taylor, Cincinnati is an outstanding 11-25-1 Over/Under as a visitor in both the regular season and playoffs — a 69% clip for the Under. Nice.
This Under run continued in 2022 with the Bengals finishing the season 3-7-1 O/U away from home, including a 0-2 O/U count in the postseason. Cincinnati averaged 24 points while allowing 20.8 points per game on the road last season, facing an average total of around 45 points.
This year, the Bengals’ average road total sits about the same (45.3 O/U). I’m predicting a downtick in defense and a big effort from the offense, which may snuff out one of the more lopsided team O/U trends in recent seasons.
