The NFL playoff push begins in earnest in Week 14 with the calendar flipped to December, and the first SNF game of the month is must-see TV.
My Chargers vs. Chiefs anytime NFL touchdown prop picks will back two of the game's biggest stars to find paydirt in Justin Herbert and DeAndre Hopkins.
Chargers anytime touchdown pick
Justin Herbert anytime touchdown
+450 at bet365
The Kansas City Chiefs' calling card this year has been their defense, which ranks eighth in both points allowed per game and yards allowed per game. The Chiefs have been particularly stingy when it comes to opposing rushing attacks, ranking second in yards allowed per run and eighth in rushing TDs allowed.
With the Los Angeles Chargers down to second-string RB Gus Edwards as their go-to back following the injury to J.K. Dobbins, it's easy to see Jim Harbaugh putting the ball in Justin Herbert's hands more often on Sunday night.
Ladd McConkey has been Herbert's first read for the majority of the season, but he's battling an injury and may be at less than 100% for SNF, assuming he suits up. Will Dissly is next on the Chargers in terms of targets, but K.C. has allowed only four touchdowns to tight ends all year.
With the Chiefs ranking fifth in pressure rate, I think Herbert will be on the run at Arrowhead Stadium. He's been a little more active than usual across the last four weeks, averaging nearly six carries per tilt, breaking the plane twice in that span.
The Bolts will be in tough tonight, so my Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions demand value from their anytime touchdown props, and I think I'm getting it with No. 10.
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Chiefs anytime touchdown pick
DeAndre Hopkins anytime touchdown
+240 at bet365
I'm not keen on playing either Isiah Pacheco (+110) or Kareem Hunt (+125) in this market after they shared the carries evenly last week, and Travis Kelce (+162) also looks like a poor bet with fellow tight end Noah Gray outpacing him in TD grabs over the last three weeks (4-0).
The Chargers present some brutal matchups, allowing only four TDs to running backs all year and only one TD to tight ends.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 40 passes per game across his last six contests, looking DeAndre Hopkins' way 36 times. The mid-season acquisition has hauled in 26 of those targets for 325 yards and four touchdowns.
QB and WR have clearly developed a rapport, and +240 is a more-than-fair price for Hopkins to tally another touchdown tonight.
Not intended for use in MA.
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