Sunday Night Football in Week 14 features a marquee matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes always steps up in games of this magnitude, which is just one reason why I'm backing him in this primetime clash. I'm also betting on Bolts rookie receiver Ladd McConkey and fading a KC defender with my best Charger vs. Chiefs prop picks for December 8.
Chargers vs Chiefs SNF props
McConkey Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Mahomes Over 247.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)- Omenihu to record a sack — No (-200 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Chargers vs Chiefs SNF props
Prop bet #1: Ladd McConkey Over 60.5 receiving yards
Los Angeles Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey is listed as questionable due to knee and shoulder injuries that have limited him in practice this week. That said, books have released receiving props for the standout rookie, and as long as he's anywhere within the ballpark of full strength, those numbers are too low.
The O/U on McConkey's receiving yards opened at 60.5 yards, a number he's eclipsed in five of his last six games. McConkey has averaged a whopping 91.7 receiving yards per game over that span while hitting the 100-yard plateau on three occasions.
The Chiefs haven't been great at defending the pass, ranking 23rd in defensive dropback success rate and passing yards allowed per game (224.1). McConkey has the 15th-best receiving grade (81.4) in the league, per PFF, and that grade ticks up to 88.4 against man coverage, which the Chiefs play at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
Prop bet #2: Patrick Mahomes Over 247.5 passing yards
With two of his best receivers on the IR, Patrick Mahomes hasn't been racking up his usual elite stats. However, his suppressed numbers have resulted in a passing yard total that looks a tad too low.
When these teams clashed in L.A. in Week 4, Mahomes completed 65.5% of his passes for 245 yards. However, his adjusted completion percentage was significantly higher at 83.3%, and he was struggling to get on the same page with his new targets.
Since then, the Kansas City Chiefs have added Deandre Hopkins, and Mahomes has found his groove, throwing for more than 260 yards in five of his last six games.
The Chargers have a highly rated defense, but there are concerns that they benefitted from facing some terrible quarterbacks earlier in the season. They've looked far more vulnerable in recent weeks against high-end QBs like Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.
It's also worth mentioning that while wind gusts could affect downfield throws at Arrowhead Stadium, they shouldn't impede Mahomes on the shorter passes he's relied on this year.
More Sunday Night Football picks from Covers
- Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions
- Patrick Mahomes odds and props
- Chargers vs. Chiefs anytime TD picks
- Best Chargers vs. Chiefs boosts
- Free NFL picks and predictions
Prop bet #3: Charles Omenihu to record a sack — No
It's rare for me to recommend a defensive player prop at -200, but this seems mispriced when you consider the context. Chiefs defensive end Charles Omenihu tore his ACL in January and only returned to the lineup last week. He was understandably quiet in that contest, finishing with just half a tackle and one hurry without any sacks in 34 snaps.
Omenihu needs time to get back to 100%, and the Chiefs will continue to rotate him with Mike Danna at the right end. That would make me fade Omenihu on his sack total even if he was facing an average left tackle, and he'll be facing one of the best in the league this week.
Rashawn Slater has the third-best pass-blocking grade in the NFL (89.2) and should have no problem neutralizing Omenihu on the edge. Over his last eight games, Slater has only been beaten for a sack by one defender: Browns superstar Myles Garrett. Omenihu is a solid pass rusher, but he's nowhere near the level of a player like Garrett.
New Users
Choose your welcome bonus at bet365
Get in on the SNF action at bet365, which is offering new users a choice of two incredible offers:
- Up to $1,000 in bonus bets back (if your first bet doesn't win)
- Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets instantly
Sign up now to pick your offer at bet365, or learn more with our comprehensive bet365 review.
Eligible U.S. locations only.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
