The AFC Wild Card race is a logjam that will get less congested after Thursday Night Football. The Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16, with these AFC West rivals fighting to stay in the playoff hunt.
My early Broncos vs. Chargers predictions are laying the points with L.A. Find out why in my NFL picks for December 19 below.
Broncos vs Chargers predictions
Early spread lean
Chargers -3 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
These divisional foes come into the short week with mixed momentum. The Denver Broncos picked up an important win over Indianapolis at home on Sunday, while the Los Angeles Chargers laid an egg against Tampa Bay. That has the AFC Wild Card race as tight as this 3-point spread.
The Chargers were lucky that quarterback Justin Herbert survived that beating from the Bucs. He was constantly hounded and suffered three sacks in the 40-17 defeat. Herbert is obviously the key to the Chargers attack and very much the X-factor in this Thursday matchup.
Denver has played excellent football in the second half of the season, winning six of its last eight games. However, digging deep into those wins, we find one of the softest QB strength of schedules in the league. The Broncos have beaten Anthony Richardson, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Bryce Young, and Spencer Rattler in that span.
Herbert & Co. downed Denver 23-16 as 3-point road favorites in Week 6, with the Chargers nearly blowing a 23-0 lead in the fourth quarter. Herbert finished with 237 yards passing and a touchdown.
I’m going to discount the Chargers’ loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday due to a bad situational spot for Los Angeles. It was coming off a crushing loss to Kansas City and got caught looking ahead to this short turnaround.
As for Denver, the 31-13 win over the Colts should have looked a little tighter, considering Jonathan Taylor carelessly gave away a touchdown, and the Broncos turned another bonehead call from Indy into a pick-six.
I was hoping to see this spread shrink below the key number, as public perception is higher on the Broncos, but I’ll side with the home team as a short favorite on Thursday night.
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Early Over/Under lean
Under 42.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Thursday’s game will have playoff-like intensity between two of the stronger defenses in the NFL. I’m leaning Under the total of 42.5 points.
The Broncos enter Week 16 as the No. 1 stop unit in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per snap. The Chargers own the No. 8 spot in those respective advanced metrics.
L.A. has given up some bigger scores at home to strong offenses, but the Denver attack doesn’t compare to the likes of Baltimore or Cincinnati. The Broncos have hung some big scores in the past three weeks but have boosted those outputs thanks to defensive touchdowns.
The Bolts won’t hand over any extra possession, sitting second lowest in giveaways and running one of the more methodical offensive paces in the NFL. They chewed up more than 37 minutes of possession against Denver in Week 6, thanks in part to two turnovers from the Broncos.
Denver’s defense will also keep Herbert hearing footsteps, with the fourth-highest pressure rate per dropback in the league. The Broncos lead the NFL with 49 sacks behind the No. 3 pass rush win rate at ESPN. Los Angeles’ pass protection has allowed 38 sacks on Herbert, including three to Denver in Week 6.
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