The race to the MAC Championship is as wide open as any conference in the country, making Western Michigan and Bowling Green’s MACtion matchup a critical game for both teams.
With the Falcons having arguably the two most talented playmakers in the conference, I expect them to make a statement against the Broncos in my Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, November 12.
Tune into ESPN2 at 7:30 p.m. ET for kickoff at Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
For more, Eric Rosales has a trio of Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green props for tonight's game.
Western Michigan vs Bowling Green prediction and best bet
My best bet
Bowling Green -8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Both these teams sit 5-4 with 4-1 records in conference play, but they’ve had far from similar seasons. The Western Michigan Broncos ran up a 4-0 MAC record against lesser programs in the conference, before being blown out by Northern Illinois last week.
Meanwhile, the Bowling Green Falcons put up a legitimate fight against top-tier programs like Penn State and Texas A&M and knocked off perennial MAC power Toledo with ease. That’s a huge reason why Scot Loeffler’s team is the favorite to win the MAC.
While these teams are both firmly positioned to make a push for the MAC Championship game, Western Michigan’s record is misleading. The 14-point loss to Northern Illinois, a team of similar talent to Bowling Green, was eye-opening.
The Broncos have major issues on defense and sit 127th out of 134 teams in SP+ on that side of the ball. They’re allowing the 13th-most points per game in the country (34.7) and have given up 41-plus in three of five MAC games.
So while 8.5 points may seem like a lot in a MACtion matchup between teams with identical records, Bowling Green is built perfectly to take advantage of this defense. Not only do the Falcons have the best playmaker in the entire conference in Harold Fannin Jr., but they also have arguably the best running back in Terion Stewart.
Asking the Broncos to slow them both for four quarters would be like asking Purdue to stop Ohio State’s offensive talent. Fannin might be the best tight end in the country, and he put up 19 receptions for 282 yards and two scores against Penn State and Texas A&M.
He also sits third in the nation in receiving yards (1,033), fourth in receptions (73), and fourth in yards per route run (3.78). How is a defense that’s 119th in EPA per dropback going to stop him?
The Broncos won’t even have the ability to sell out to slow him down either with Stewart in the Falcons’ backfield. Despite dealing with injuries this season, he’s top 50 in the country in rushing yards after contact (679), top 30 in 10-plus-yard runs (22), and top 10 in missed tackles forced (55), per PFF.
Western Michigan doesn’t have the defense to stop them, or the offense to keep up.
Western Michigan vs Bowling Green same-game parlay (SGP)
Bowling Green -8.5
Under 58.5
This is a sky-high game total for a MAC matchup between two teams that rank outside the top 70 in SP+ on offense. Obviously it’s inflated because of Western Michigan’s poor defensive play against MAC opponents, but I have a hard time seeing these teams hit the Over on a total so high.
Neither team ranks top 60 in EPA per rush or EPA per dropback. Plus, both teams lean heavily on their talented running backs, which should keep the clock moving. I think Bowling Green wins this one 31-21.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Western Michigan vs Bowling Green odds
Western Michigan vs Bowling Green live odds
Western Michigan vs Bowling Green opening odds
- Western Michigan vs Bowling Green spread: Bowling Green -7.5
- Western Michigan vs Bowling Green moneyline: Western Michigan +225, Bowling Green -275
- Western Michigan vs Bowling Green Over/Under: 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Western Michigan vs Bowling Green spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bowling Green opened as a 7.5-point favorite and the line moved as far as -9 Falcons before shifting to -8.5.
- Bowling Green is just 4-5 ATS this season while Western Michigan isn’t much better at 4-4.
- The Over/Under opened between 56 and 56.5 and has ballooned to as high as 58 at some sportsbooks.
- The Falcons are just 3-6 betting the Over this season, but the Broncos are among the best Over teams in the country at 6-2.
Western Michigan vs Bowling Green betting trend to know
Bowling Green has only hit the game total Under in two of its last five games at home (-1.30 Units / -24% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green.
Western Michigan vs Bowling Green game info
| Location: | Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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