UNLV vs Boise State Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for the Mountain West Championship Game

The UNLV Rebels and Boise State Broncos gave us an underappreciated thriller at the end of October. It has been largely forgotten because, for much of the next month, it looked like we would never get a rematch.

This rematch in the Mountain West title game should not go underappreciated or largely forgotten as the winner will enjoy a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff.

And my UNLV vs. Boise State predictions are looking at a different winner than has been expected all season long. Tonight's college football picks may want to default to trusting Jeanty, but when kickoff comes at 8 ET on Friday, December 6, more trust should be put in the Rebels’ rush defense.

UNLV vs Boise State predictions and best bet

• Spread pick: UNLV +4 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Moneyline pick: Boise State (-190 at BetMGM)
• Over/Under pick: Under 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Best bet: UNLV moneyline (+160 at BetMGM)

UNLV vs Boise State spread prediction

The UNLV Rebels' upset bid in late October was undone by a telegraphed interception just before halftime, and only three plays after a Boise State Broncos touchdown took a 13-10 lead.

What could have been a tight game before the break was instead a 20-10 worry. The Rebels ended up losing 29-24. That interception and the touchdown it created were the only reasons UNLV did not cover that +4 spread.

Since then, Rebels quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has thrown just one interception in four games and 106 pass attempts. Do not bet on him making that mistake again. Instead, bet on UNLV +4.

UNLV vs Boise State moneyline prediction

Boise State is the home team on a cold December night. The -190 Broncos moneyline is the safe bet. The offense that relies on the rushing game should, logically, fare better in the cold air. Friday evening forecasts expect 30 degrees, not quite delightful weather. That -190 may not be the best value bet, but if looking simply to pick a winner, the logic points to Boise State. 

UNLV vs Boise State Over/Under prediction

Those chilly temperatures are one of a few reasons to target the Under 57.5. Another is that late October tilt, topping out at 53 points despite the regrettable short-field touchdown that cost UNLV the game.

UNLV vs Boise State best bet

Pick: UNLV moneyline (+160 at BetMGM)

Boise State is the safe bet. It's the correct answer to the generic “Who will win?” wonder. And that is the folly of asking those questions.

The correct question to ask is: What bet presents the best value? And that answer is, inarguably, UNLV at +160. Why? Well, for one thing, because the Rebels just might win the Mountain West and land the No. 12 seed in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.

While Ashton Jeanty is the most productive running back in the country, Boise State’s rushing attack is not necessarily the most dynamic. The Rebels held the Broncos to 185 yards on 40 carries in late October, an average of 4.6 yards per rush. Lauded for his explosive rushes, Jeanty’s longest gain was 16 yards.

Expect that again. UNLV has the No. 14 defense in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, complementing the No. 8 success rate against the rush. The Rebels do not need to sell out against the run to stop Jeanty. Their defense is solid enough to do it within its usual structure.

And that ability worries Boise State. The Broncos run the ball 6.2% more often than the average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, No. 49 in the country. If the ground game is taken away, Boise State will struggle, particularly in the colder temperatures.

UNLV runs even more often, 10.8% more often than the average team, and turns to a handful of ball carriers to do so. The cold hits should wear out Jeanty faster than they will the trio of Jai’Den Thomas (11.6 attempts per game), Hajj-Malik Williams (11.8), and Kylin James (6.7).

Boise State’s defense is not up for that cause, certainly not given the multi-faceted nature of the Go-Go offense.

The obvious bet may be on Boise State, but the value is on UNLV. This moneyline is too steep when the primary Broncos want is a Rebels strength.

UNLV vs Boise State same-game parlay (SGP)

UNLV moneyline

Hajj-Malik Williams anytime touchdown

Under 57.5

+625 at BetMGM

Stalling Boise State’s rush offense will doom this game to an Under. Despite having a historically productive running back, the Broncos have cashed the Under in three of their last four games and five of their last seven.

As for a touchdown from Rebels quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, know he's enjoyed at least one in seven of his nine games as the UNLV starter since Matthew Sluka’s controversial departure from the program. Williams has averaged 13.3 carries in that stretch, leading the Rebels’ Go-Go offense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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UNLV vs Boise State odds

UNLV vs Boise State live odds

UNLV vs Boise State opening odds

• UNLV vs. Boise State spread: Boise State -4.5
• UNLV vs. Boise State moneyline: UNLV +165, Boise State -200
• UNLV vs. Boise State Over/Under: 59.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

UNLV vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis

• Boise State opened as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday, a number that's only moved downward this week, some books falling as low as -3.5 in the late week.
• The Broncos were 4-point favorites at UNLV in late October. Homefield advantage alone would have moved that spread by six points, suggesting the gap between these two teams has closed by six points in the last six weeks.
• The total opened at a lofty 59.5 on Sunday before ticking down to 58.5 that afternoon and then to 57.5 on Wednesday.|
• The October total closed at 63.5. Chalk up this 6-point difference to a combination of faith in UNLV’s defense and an acknowledgment of the cold.

UNLV vs Boise State betting trend to know

In Barry Odom’s two seasons as UNLV head coach, the Rebels have gone 4-2 outright as one-possession underdogs. Find more college football betting trends for UNLV vs Boise State.

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