The best season for the Army Black Knights in nearly seven decades has reached unprecedented territory, as tonight's American Athletic Conference championship game against the Tulane Green Wave may be the biggest game in Michie Stadium history.
My Tulane vs. Army predictions are not influenced by any of that history, but it should be noted in any free college football picks to underscore how electric the atmosphere should be.
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from West Point, with the game airing on ABC.
Tulane vs Army prediction and best bet
My best bet
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This may seem absurd. Betting on the Over in a pivotal Army Black Knights game might not be the most common approach, certainly not when it is facing a Jon Sumrall defensive scheme that held the Knights to nine points total in two meetings the last two years at Troy. That same defensive scheme led the Tulane Green Wave to shut out Navy just three weeks ago.
But Army’s offense is better this year. Better than the last two seasons, and better than Navy’s this year. To lend it some context, current SP+ rankings rate the Knights’ offense as worth 30.7 points against an average team. At the end of last season, that number was 18.3; two years ago it finished at 22.6.
Army will find some points. Senior quarterback Bryson Daily is too good not to. He has averaged 11.3 yards per pass attempt this season, the Black Knights finding a reliable explosive aspect in their offense in 2024.
Keep that in mind as we go back to discussing Tulane’s defense. It will stymie Army early, particularly given its defensive success rate of 64.4%, No. 8 in the country, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Stymying a triple-option offense early yields a few added offensive possessions of your own, at which point sophomore quarterback Darian Mensah should hit a couple deep passes to give the Green Wave a quick lead.
That will be when this Over comes to reality. Desperation will stir Army to bigger plays, and it is capable of them despite preconceptions.
In any other circumstance, it could be argued the Knights would stay conservative and worry more about next week’s tilt with Navy, but with a conference championship on the line for the first time in 133 years of Army football, the Knights should respond to an early deficit with quick strikes.
Tulane vs Army same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 45.5
1H Under 23.5
Tulane -5
Same-game parlays are a dicey endeavor, but when a same-game parlay is based entirely on a game script, it has more value.
Tulane’s defense setting the early terms until Mensah takes a lead should make for a one-sided first half, but Tulane alone will not threaten this first-half total of 23.5. And then Army’s aggression to catch up should propel this championship tilt past its full-game total of 45.5.
In that design, the Black Knights will be not only playing from behind, but they will also be playing in a way that is not their usual. Army should put some points on the board with explosive plays, but it will not be consistent, and that should be enough to sway the scoreboard enough toward Tulane to cover this spread.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tulane vs Army odds
Tulane vs Army live odds
Tulane vs Army opening odds
- Tulane vs. Army spread: Army +3.5
- Tulane vs. Army moneyline: Tulane -175, Army +145
- Tulane vs. Army Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tulane vs Army spread and Over/Under analysis
- This matchup was set well before the last weekend of the regular season, which allowed sportsbooks to open this spread before last Saturday’s games even ended, first hitting the market with Tulane favored by 3.5 points.
- The spread climbed as high as -6 late on Monday before returning to -5 or -4.5, depending on your sportsbook, on Tuesday afternoon.
- This total hit the market at a lofty 48.5 and spent all of Monday and then Tuesday morning falling, settling at 45.5.
- The total moving in tandem with the spread gives further credit to Tulane’s defense.
- 53% of Covers Consensus users are backing Army on the spread, while 61% are taking the Under.
Tulane vs Army betting trend to know
This is less a betting trend and more something that should be noted in here somewhere: Jon Sumrall is under some consideration for the head coaching job at North Carolina, and some could argue he is thus distracted. A year ago, Sumrall was already being rumored for this Tulane job when Troy went ahead and easily won the Sun Belt championship, 45-26, against Coastal Carolina. Find more college football betting trends for Tulane vs Army.
How to watch Tulane vs Army game info
| Location: | Michie Stadium, West Point, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 12-6-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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