Tulane vs Army Predictions, Picks, Odds for the AAC Championship Game

Tulane's stifling defense may be able to contain the Army offense for a little while, but it won't be able to hold it down for long. Expect the Black Knights to chase the AAC Championship Game late and send it Over the total.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer ? Betting Analyst
Dec 6, 2024 ? 16:59 ET ? 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Army Black Knights NCAAF Bryson Daily
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Bryson Daily takes off with the ball.

The best season for the Army Black Knights in nearly seven decades has reached unprecedented territory, as tonight's American Athletic Conference championship game against the Tulane Green Wave may be the biggest game in Michie Stadium history.

My Tulane vs. Army predictions are not influenced by any of that history, but it should be noted in any free college football picks to underscore how electric the atmosphere should be.

Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from West Point, with the game airing on ABC.

Tulane vs Army prediction and best bet

My best bet
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
This may seem absurd. Betting on the Over in a pivotal Army Black Knights game might not be the most common approach, certainly not when it is facing a Jon Sumrall defensive scheme that held the Knights to nine points total in two meetings the last two years at Troy. That same defensive scheme led the Tulane Green Wave to shut out Navy just three weeks ago.

But Army’s offense is better this year. Better than the last two seasons, and better than Navy’s this year. To lend it some context, current SP+ rankings rate the Knights’ offense as worth 30.7 points against an average team. At the end of last season, that number was 18.3; two years ago it finished at 22.6.

Army will find some points. Senior quarterback Bryson Daily is too good not to. He has averaged 11.3 yards per pass attempt this season, the Black Knights finding a reliable explosive aspect in their offense in 2024.

Keep that in mind as we go back to discussing Tulane’s defense. It will stymie Army early, particularly given its defensive success rate of 64.4%, No. 8 in the country, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.  Stymying a triple-option offense early yields a few added offensive possessions of your own, at which point sophomore quarterback Darian Mensah should hit a couple deep passes to give the Green Wave a quick lead.

That will be when this Over comes to reality. Desperation will stir Army to bigger plays, and it is capable of them despite preconceptions.

In any other circumstance, it could be argued the Knights would stay conservative and worry more about next week’s tilt with Navy, but with a conference championship on the line for the first time in 133 years of Army football, the Knights should respond to an early deficit with quick strikes.

Tulane vs Army same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 45.5

1H Under 23.5

Tulane -5

Same-game parlays are a dicey endeavor, but when a same-game parlay is based entirely on a game script, it has more value.

Tulane’s defense setting the early terms until Mensah takes a lead should make for a one-sided first half, but Tulane alone will not threaten this first-half total of 23.5. And then Army’s aggression to catch up should propel this championship tilt past its full-game total of 45.5.

In that design, the Black Knights will be not only playing from behind, but they will also be playing in a way that is not their usual. Army should put some points on the board with explosive plays, but it will not be consistent, and that should be enough to sway the scoreboard enough toward Tulane to cover this spread.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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More Conference Championship picks from Covers


Tulane vs Army odds

Tulane vs Army live odds

Tulane vs Army opening odds

  • Tulane vs. Army spread: Army +3.5
  • Tulane vs. Army moneyline: Tulane -175, Army +145
  • Tulane vs. Army Over/Under: 48.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Tulane vs Army spread and Over/Under analysis

  • This matchup was set well before the last weekend of the regular season, which allowed sportsbooks to open this spread before last Saturday’s games even ended, first hitting the market with Tulane favored by 3.5 points.
  • The spread climbed as high as -6 late on Monday before returning to -5 or -4.5, depending on your sportsbook, on Tuesday afternoon.
  • This total hit the market at a lofty 48.5 and spent all of Monday and then Tuesday morning falling, settling at 45.5.
  • The total moving in tandem with the spread gives further credit to Tulane’s defense.
  • 53% of Covers Consensus users are backing Army on the spread, while 61% are taking the Under.

Tulane vs Army betting trend to know

This is less a betting trend and more something that should be noted in here somewhere: Jon Sumrall is under some consideration for the head coaching job at North Carolina, and some could argue he is thus distracted. A year ago, Sumrall was already being rumored for this Tulane job when Troy went ahead and easily won the Sun Belt championship, 45-26, against Coastal Carolina. Find more college football betting trends for Tulane vs Army.

How to watch Tulane vs Army game info

Location: Michie Stadium, West Point, NY
Date: Friday, 12-6-2024
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Tulane vs Army latest injuries

Tulane vs Army weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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