Instead, my latest college football picks will focus on a different Friday night conference championship game before finding value in three of Saturday’s six title matchups.
College football predictions for Week 15
- Haji-Malik Williams anytime TD (-120)
- Ashton Jeanty u171.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Texas -3 (-105)
- Miami (OH) ML (-122)
- Iowa State ML (+106)
Picks made on 12-05. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
College football Week 15 predictions
Hajj-Malik Williams anytime touchdown
Best odds: -120 at FanDuel
What do you think Matthew Sluka is doing Friday night? Based on a retweet on Wednesday evening, he has been working out in the New York/New Jersey area lately, logical given he is originally from Long Island.
That is worth noting solely because Sluka’s decision to leave UNLV after three games was once the biggest story of this college football season. It never should have been.
Sluka averaged 8.1 yards per carry on 35 attempts in his three games (sacks adjusted), scoring one touchdown. Meanwhile, was completing just 43.8% of his passes for just 6.6 yards per attempt. Sluka was a drag on the Rebels offense when he removed himself from the roster in search of more NIL compensation.
Enter Hajj-Malik Williams.
In his nine games as starting quarterback, he has taken 100 carries for 900 yards, including rushing for nine touchdowns. Against Boise State in late October, Williams took 13 carries for 144 yards and a score, adjusting for six sacks.
Why not take Williams to clear 64.5 rushing yards, set at -114 at FanDuel? Mostly because of sacks. He has been sacked 20 times in the last nine games. In three of them, he fell short of this prop, reaching exactly 65 yards in two others.
The total for Friday's Mountain West championship is also nearly a touchdown lower than October’s. Yards may come at a premium on this 30-degree night.
At that point, UNLV should turn to its best offensive piece where it matters most — the one that erased the memory of Sluka.
Ashton Jeanty Under 171.5 rushing yards
Best odds: -114 at FanDuel
This is wildly mispriced.
With all due respect to the presumptive Heisman runner-up, FanDuel simply has the wrong number posted. It is foolish.
Ashton Jeanty fell short of this number in four of his last six games. The two exceptions? Against the No. 107 and No. 102 rush defenses in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, according to cfb-graphs.
UNLV’s rush defense ranks No. 14 in EPA per rush and No. 8 in success rate. It memorably held Jeanty to 128 yards on 33 carries in late October, an average of 3.88 yards per rush, nearly a yard lower than any other game in his record-breaking season.
Most surprisingly, the Rebels kept Jeanty contained on all 33 of those carries; his longest rush was for 16 yards. In his 11 other games this season, Jeanty always had at least one rush for at least 35 yards.
Throwing all caution to the wind in the Mountain West championship game.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 5, 2024
UNLV, make me a happy man. Yes, I said me, happy. I know, that's a rarity.
But with this rush defense, Ashton Jeanty should struggle again. https://t.co/dslCmIeweB pic.twitter.com/rhQMKVRff7
In a game that should become a slog, handing off to any one back 30 times will hurt more than ever.
Cold emphasizes punishing blows. Yes, on defenders, too, but there are 11 of them and only one Ashton Jeanty.
For the third time this season, do not expect Jeanty to run for 150 yards.
Texas -3
Best odds: -105 at BetMGM
Texas has already taken Georgia’s best punch. Yes, the Longhorns lost that October matchup 30-15, but that was the absolute best performance from the Bulldogs. Nearly none of it should be expected to be replicated.
Georgia needed that win more than any other this season. It was less than a month removed from losing to Alabama, and with the remaining schedule — at Mississippi (an eventual loss) and vs. Tennessee (an eventual win) — avoiding a second loss with nearly half the season remaining was paramount.
The Bulldogs came out with more aggression than Kirby Smart typically prefers, with their defensive chaos staking them to a 23-0 lead at halftime.
And then, in the third quarter, Texas made things interesting, cutting that deficit to 23-15 before failing to produce in the final frame.
That was the best of Georgia. It has not looked that good at any other point this season and, in fact, has covered just one spread in the subsequent five games. Do not chalk that up to comfort level.
Certainly, once the Bulldogs lost at Mississippi, any subsequent loss would have knocked them out of the Playoff. They then proceeded to give up 21 points to UMass and needed eight incompetent extra frames to get by Georgia Tech in a home game.
Let's be clear, today's value play was not on Georgia.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 3, 2024
If you go 2-of-7 on do-or-die 2-point conversions against Georgia Tech, you are no longer a national title contender, though @Covers_Caley disagrees. Your offense is too flawed. https://t.co/gqTApXfcHI pic.twitter.com/oZKCiSTx7J
Georgia ginned up exactly one impressive half this season. Yes, that discounts beating Tennessee, but at this point, Kirby Smart embarrassing Josh Heupel’s offense is as expected.
Meanwhile, Texas’s defense has only improved, certainly while quarterback Quinn Ewers’ has worked his way back toward full health after battling through numerous injuries.
In their five games since that Georgia tilt, only Vanderbilt and Florida exceeded their team totals against the Longhorns, both doing so only in garbage time. Remove those touchdowns and the Commodores pushed their team total while the Gators fell 3.5 points short. Across those five games, ignoring those garbage-time tallies, Texas has held opponents an average of 6.3 points below their team totals.
The Longhorns are rising while the Bulldogs peaked in Austin six weeks ago.
More College football Week 15 predictions
- Clemson vs. SMU: Clemson moneyline
- Penn State vs. Oregon: Over 49.5
- Ohio vs. Miami (OH): Ohio +2
- Marshall vs. Louisiana: Under 57.5
- Iowa State vs. Arizona State: Iowa State moneyline
- Georgia vs. Texas: Under 50.5
Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast
Join Douglas, and co-host Andrew Caley, on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the Covers YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m.
Check out the latest Tuesday episode below:
Miami (OH) moneyline vs. Ohio
Best odds: -122 at DraftKings
Ohio can thank its schedule for this MAC title game appearance. The Bobcats faced Akron, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, and Ball State — en route to a 7-1 conference record. According to the most recent SP+ ratings, those are the five worst teams in the MAC, and the best of them (Eastern Michigan) is considered the No. 116 team in the country.
Admittedly, Miami (OH) played four of those wretched five as well, but its seven-game winning streak has featured an average margin of victory of 19 points. Playing better teams and performing that well against them should be enough to give the RedHawks your faith here.
Look at the one Ohio loss in MAC play to assure your faith.
Miami beat Ohio 30-20 in mid-October, and the reality is that the game was nowhere near that close. The RedHawks led 30-6 with six minutes remaining. Ohio scored its final touchdown with six seconds remaining.
Miami will have the two best units on the field. It has the veteran quarterback Brett Gabbert intent on a championship coda to his career after an injury cost him the final month of last season. It also has a coach who has won the MAC twice before, including last season.
Do not overthink the MAC title game.
Iowa State moneyline vs. Arizona State
Best odds: +106 at FanDuel
This is a bet on Iowa State’s defense. Getting it at plus money emboldens the thought. Plus, what kind of “best bets” column would reach conference championship week without a moneyline underdog?
Arizona State should end up more one-dimensional than usual, as star receiver Jordyn Tyson was ruled out on Wednesday with an upper-body injury.
You may have heard of only running back Cam Skattebo when discussing the Sun Devils’ skill-positon players, but Tyson has been a consistent and needed piece. In the five-game surge that propelled Arizona State into the Big 12 championship game, he averaged 8.8 catches for 104.8 yards per game, scoring six times.
Without him, the Sun Devils’ passing attack may fall off the face of the field. Their next leading pass-catcher of late is Chamon Metayer, averaging 2.8 catches per game in the last five for 29.8 yards, scoring three times.
Losing one receiver usually doesn't warrant a massive move in the spread or change a game plan, but when the rest of the receivers corps is this lackluster, it likely will. Arizona State already runs 2.1% more often than an average team would in a given game state. Turning to Skattebo will be predictable and something a quality Cyclones defense will be ready for.
Furthermore, being this dependent on the run is often a losing strategy in a game with this thin a margin of error. As soon as Skattebo is stopped behind the chains on a crucial drive, the Sun Devils will be in desperation mode.
That is a recipe to take the value on the underdog.
Not intended for use in MA.
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