The Sun Belt Championship is on the line tonight as the Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3) head to Lafayette to face the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-2).
Marshall is looking for its first-ever Sun Belt title and is also seeking to become the first road team to come away victorious in this contest. Louisiana is looking for its second championship since Billy Napier departed for Florida.
Read on for my Marshall vs. Louisiana predictions and college football picks for Saturday, December 7.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Cajun Field in Lafayette, with the game airing on ESPN.
Marshall vs Louisiana prediction and best bet
Who will win Marshall vs Louisiana?
The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns will win this game because a home team has never before been defeated in this contest. The Marshall Thundering Herd ran hot at 10-1-1 ATS this season, but they were also outgained in conference play and hold a 0.4 yards per play differential compared to +1.6 for the Cajuns.
Louisiana’s offense will be the best unit on the field, ranking fourth nationally in EPA per play on standard downs, led by a dominant offensive line and an efficient passing attack paired with a deadly ground game.
My best bet
Pick: Under 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
I’m taking the Under in a game between two offenses that prefer to keep the ball on the ground while facing opposing defenses that have had issues stopping the run. This should keep the chains moving and the clock ticking, paving the way for a close game that stays Under the total.
The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns will be led by a backup quarterback after starter Ben Wooldridge injured his collarbone. Chandler Fields is a microcosm of the Cajuns’ ability to keep a veteran roster together — he offers more experience than just about any backup in the country, having spent six years in the program while featuring in 34 career games.
Don’t expect the offense to drop off much with Fields in charge, but also don’t expect a sudden increase in production. The Marshall Thundering Herd offers a tough test, ranking 15th in PFF’s defensive grade (91.7) while excelling in tackling (80.3), pass rush (81.6), and coverage (92.2).
The Herd has some concerning efficiency metrics on the ground, ranking 108th in EPA per rush, 93rd in rushing success rate, and 117th in rushing explosiveness. Louisiana ranks 17th in EPA per rush and churns out 180 rushing yards per game, led by a three-headed backfield of Elijah David, Zylan Perry, and Dre’lyn Washington.
The Herd is led by defensive lineman Mike Green, who was named Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year after racking up 21 tackles for loss and 16 sacks. Marshall loves to get in the backfield and create havoc (31st), making this a strength-on-strength matchup as Louisiana’s offensive line has been superb (fifth in havoc, fourth in front-seven havoc).
The Cajuns likely move the ball and possess it long enough to keep the clock ticking, but they’re usually methodical in their approach and rank just 118th in plays per minute. Marshall’s defense has been good enough that I don’t expect it to get exposed here.
On the flip side, Louisiana’s defense has been a bend, but don’t break defense. The Cajuns rank 128th in success rate but third in explosiveness, bottling up big plays and making opponents work their way downfield with long and sustained drives.
Marshall is 7-0 with dual-threat Braylon Braxton as quarterback, preferring to keep the ball on the ground (16th in rush rate) while gaining 200 rushing yards per game. The Cajuns can be had on the ground (122nd in EPA per rush, 134th in rushing success rate), so expect the Herd to have a solid day on the ground led by running back A.J. Turner (4.54 yards after contact per attempt, conference-leading 54.6% breakaway percentage per PFF).
I’ll take the Under in a game where the surest bet is both teams finding success on the ground. Tick, tick, tick.
Marshall vs Louisiana same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 57.5
Marshall +5.5
Marshall is a program that just finds ways to win football games. The Herd have reached a bowl game for eight straight years, the ninth-longest streak in the country.
The Herd finds themselves as 5.5-point underdogs, and that’s understandable when taking a look at the all-Sun Belt teams, where Marshall placed six players compared to 11 for the Ragin’ Cajuns. That being said, this is a close game, and the margins are thin enough that I’d prefer to be catching points rather than laying them.
Louisiana has been soft along the defensive front, ranking 113th in line yards, 104th in stuff rate, 121st in power success rate, and 118th in front-seven havoc. I can’t trust a team with those numbers to lay close to a touchdown when going against a rush-first offense, especially not when the other metrics are so close.
Marshall has been a covering machine at 10-1-1 ATS and I’m riding with the Herd until given a good reason not to.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Marshall vs Louisiana odds
Marshall vs Louisiana live odds
Marshall vs Louisiana opening odds
- Marshall vs. Louisiana spread: Louisiana 3.5 (-110)
- Marshall vs. Louisiana moneyline: Marshall (+150), Louisiana (-185)
- Marshall vs. Louisiana Over/Under: 58.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Marshall vs Louisiana spread and Over/Under analysis
- The home team is 5-0 straight up in previous Sun Belt championship games.
- Marshall is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as the underdog.
- Louisiana is 4-12 O/U in its last 16 games against an East Division opponent.
- 53% of Covers Consensus users are backing Louisiana on the spread, while 57% are taking the Over.
Marshall vs Louisiana betting trend to know
Louisiana is 1-4 O/U in its last five games, with a total above 57. Find more college football betting trends for Marshall vs Louisiana.
How to watch Marshall vs Louisiana game info
| Location: | Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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