Win and you’re in.... the College Football Playoff.
That’s the situation in the Mountain West Championship as the No. 10 Boise State Broncos face the No. 19 UNLV Rebels on the blue turf tonight.
Such a monumental matchup brings extra attention, and we’ve got you covered with our three favorite UNLLV vs. Boise State player props and college football picks for December 6.
Looking for more? Douglas Farmer has you covered in his UNLV vs. Boise State predictions!
UNLV vs Boise State props for the Mountain West Championship
Camper Over 59.5 rec yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Thomas Over 67.5 rush yds (-115 at BetMGM)- White Over 76.5 rec yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-6.
Read full analysis of each pick.
UNLV vs Boise State college football player props
Prop bet #1: Cam Camper Over 59.5 receiving yards
The UNLV Rebels did all they could to slow down superstar running back Ashton Jeanty in the first matchup, holding the anticipated Heisman runner-up to 128 yards on 33 attempts (3.9 yards per attempt).
That’d be a season low if you exclude the blowout win over FCS school Portland State in which Jeanty took 11 carries for 127 yards in the first half before taking the night off.
Expect Barry Odom and this Rebels staff to implement a similar game plan in the rematch. This will open up opportunities for other Boise State Broncos to step up and produce.
The chief name that comes to mind is leading receiver Cam Camper. His 811 receiving yards are nearly double that of any other receiver on the roster — Latrell Caples has 406 yards — and it’s evident quarterback Maddux Madsen has a go-to guy in the air.
Camper has been peppered, with his 78 targets being 30 more than any other wideout. That’s been evident lately as he’s averaging 9.3 targets across his last three games.
Camper was hobbled in the first matchup, struggling through a knee injury while barely seeing the field. He probably would've missed the game altogether if it was a matchup against a lesser team.
Camper is healthy now and averaging 79.3 yards per game in his last three outings. He’s poised to benefit from the added attention to Jeanty and is the clear No. 1 option for a passing attack that has been might effective, ranking 11th in EPA per pass and 13th in passing success rate.
Prop bet #2: Jai'Den Thomas Over 67.5 rushing yards
Another thing that’s changed since the first matchup — other than Camper’s health — is the emergence of sophomore Jai’Den Thomas as UNLV’s workhorse running back. After not handling double-digit carries in any of his first five games while averaging just 6.2 totes per game, the starlet tailback has done so in six of his last seven games while averaging 15.6.
We always knew Thomas had the talent: he rushed for 12 touchdowns as a freshman a year ago while listed at just 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds. He packs a big punch for that seemingly little frame, and he’s clearly a back with a ton of skill.
The amount of touches he’d receive was up in the air through the first month or so of the year, but that’s now a distant memory after his torrid production to end the year.
Boise State’s defense has had troubling metrics for two straight years now, with Spencer Danielson running the show. The Broncos rank 54th in EPA per rush and 86th in rushing explosiveness, and PFF’s numbers aren’t any kinder (73rd in rush defense, 133rd in tackling).
UNLV is content to keep the ball on the ground, checking in at eighth in rush rate. The Rebels seem primed to take advantage of Boise’s tackling issues, or at least its 11th-ranked offense in terms of rushing explosiveness would seem to indicate as much.
Thomas is listed at +105 to score a touchdown, which grades out as a good play considering he’s found the end zone 20 times in 25 career games and is riding the best hot streak of his career.
My favorite play on the board for Jet is his rushing yardage prop at 67.5. He’s cleared that number in three of his last four while averaging 109.3 per game, and I’m buying as the workload trend doesn’t seem to be a fluke.
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Prop bet #3: Ricky White Over 76.5 receiving yards
Anytime a player is averaging 96 receiving yards per game across a two-season sample size yet is listed at 76.5 in the prop market, you have to consider the Over.
The player I’m alluding to is Ricky White, UNLV’s go-to target, who was held in check with five catches for 57 yards in the initial meeting. Given Boise’s troubling tackling metrics as referenced in the Thomas section before, it may be difficult to give White so much extra attention that he’s shut down again on Friday night.
White is an unstoppable force who averages 3.22 yards per route run (per PFF). He’s gone Over this number in 13 of his last 18 games, so I’d be remiss if I didn’t buy the discount.
Boise’s defensive liabilities don’t end in the tackling department. The Broncos rank 68th in EPA per pass and 102nd in passing explosiveness, failing to cover opposing passing attacks with any consistency.
We’ve seen a few teams attack this vulnerable secondary. San Jose State threw for 446 yards, while Georgia Southern (322), Washington State (327), Utah State (372), and Hawai’i (264) all found varying degrees of success.
UNLV doesn’t have a traditional passing attack, but it’s effective nonetheless. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams averages 8.4 yards per attempt, and he’s force-fed White with those passes. The Michigan State transfer has seen no fewer than seven targets in any of his last 10 games.
Combine elite volume with incredible talent and a tempting matchup, and you know which side of this prop I’m taking.
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