Purdue vs Michigan State Predictions, Picks, Odds for College Football Week 13

Paul's Prediction: Points will be at a premium tonight when Purdue and Michigan State meet in prime-time.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul ? Betting Analyst
Nov 22, 2024 ? 16:57 ET ? 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Nathan Carter Michigan State Spartans Big Ten college football
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Michigan State's Nathan Carter runs for a gain.

Two of the worst teams in the Big Ten go toe-to-toe tonight when Purdue heads northeast to take on Michigan State. 

Between the Boilermakers' poor offensive play and the Spartans' respectable defense, I expect few points to be scored in my Purdue vs. Michigan State predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 22.

Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, with the game airing on FOX.  

Purdue vs Michigan State prediction

Who will win Purdue vs Michigan State?

For as bad as the Michigan State Spartans have been at times this season, the Spartans look like a bowl team in comparison to the product Purdue has put on the field. The Boilermakers are 1-9 this season and 0-7 in Big Ten play.

The Spartans haven’t been good, but they at least upset Iowa and played Michigan tough on the road. Thanks to Jonathan Smith’s team having a solid running game and defense, I don’t see Michigan State losing this one at home. I have the Spartans winning 27-17.

My best bet
Pick: Under 47.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
While I don’t trust the Purdue Boilermakers to win this game, the Michigan State Spartans covering the 13.5-point spread is a tough bet to make. I just don’t know if the Spartans can score enough to win that big, but I do think their defense can have a big performance under the Friday night lights.

For as bad as Michigan State has been — 91st in SP+ — its defense has had some bright moments and ranks 50th in SP+ this season. Against Power Four opponents, it gave up 24 or fewer points to Boston College, Iowa, and Michigan.

While none of those teams' offenses can be considered consistently capable, they’re much better than what Purdue is throwing on the field. The Boilermakers are 105th in SP+ on offense — Boston College, Iowa, and Michigan are all Top 90.

It’s gotten so bad for the Boilermakers that head coach Ryan Walters, a defensive coordinator by trade, has even been calling the offensive plays for Purdue at times. No matter who’s calling the plays or playing under center, the Boilermakers have the same result.

Purdue is ranked 129th out of 134 in points per game this season (17.2) and has scored 10 points or fewer in six of nine games against FBS teams. It’s an offense that’s 98th in EPA per rush and 121st in EPA per dropback.

And it’s not as if Michigan State’s going to hit this Over on its own. The Spartans are worse on offense than Purdue, according to SP+ (117th), and are only scoring slightly more points per game (19.4).

Obviously, Purdue’s defense is pretty terrible, but Michigan State has only scored more than 19 points in three of its 10 games this year. Plus, the Spartans want to run the football because they’re more effective on the ground, which is good for the Under.

Purdue vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 47.5

Nick Marsh Over 49.5 receiving yards

Nathan Carter anytime touchdown

Points are going to be hard to come by in this game, but Michigan State does have a few players on offense that will likely be playing on Sundays in the future. Chief among them is true freshman Nick Marsh.

Marsh leads the team in yards from scrimmage (613) and has gone Over 49.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s also Top 60 nationally in yards per route run (2.45) and will be a tough cover for Purdue.

He’s not alone on this MSU offense, either. Running back Nathan Carter leads the team in touchdowns (4) and has scored in three of his last four games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Purdue vs Michigan State odds

Purdue vs Michigan State live odds

Purdue vs Michigan State opening odds

  • Purdue vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan State -13.5
  • Purdue vs. Michigan State moneyline: Purdue +400, Michigan State -550
  • Purdue vs. Michigan State Over/Under: 47.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Purdue vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Michigan State opened between a 13 and 13.5-point favorite with little movement at most sportsbooks.

  • While the Spartans are just 4-6 ATS this season, the Boilermakers are the worst team in the country ATS at 2-8.

  • The Over/Under opened as high as 49.5 and as low as 47.5, with most books settling in at 47.5.

  • Michigan State is 5-5 betting the Over this season, while Purdue is 6-4. 67% of Covers Consensus users are backing Michigan State on the spread, while 58% are taking the Under.

Purdue vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Michigan State has cashed the Under in four of its last six games at home (+1.80 units / 27% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Purdue vs Michigan State.

How to watch Purdue vs Michigan State

Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Date: Friday, 11-22, 2024
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Purdue vs Michigan State latest injuries

Purdue vs Michigan State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob has contributed to various sports media outlets since 2018, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, but Covers is the first site he’s worked at that is dedicated solely to the sports betting industry. Before working in sports media full-time, he spent five years as a local community journalist after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history.

He’s long been involved in sports in one way or another, previously hosting a podcast focused on the NFL draft and college football. Working as a freelance podcast producer, Rob has appeared on numerous sports podcasts and college football shows. He's also been a guest on SportsTalk Mississippi, discussing the NFL draft.

One of his favorite things about the sports betting industry is the way it helps shine a light on sports that get less coverage. He’s a diehard player prop bettor who always recommends using stats and analytics to identify the best players to back before placing a bet.

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