The Detroit Lions head to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon.
Indianapolis' passing game woke up last week, which is why my Lions vs. Colts predictions are betting on a big game from wide receiver Josh Downs.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 12 clash on November 23.
Lions vs Colts prediction
My best bet
Josh Downs Over 52.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Wide receiver Josh Downs leads the Indianapolis Colts with 50 receptions for 567 yards, and the sophomore has racked up 60+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight games. The one game where he went below that number came against the Dolphins in Week 7 when he was questionable with a toe injury and was nowhere near 100%.
Downs seems to be at full strength now and he's fresh off an 84-yard performance against the Jets stingy secondary in Week 11. It's impressive that Downs has been so consistent despite poor play at quarterback.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen had some puzzling play-calling with Anthony Ricardson earlier in the year. He rarely passed, and when he did throw, the sophomore pivot attempted deep shots at an unsustainable rate. The play-calling was much better last week, with Richardson throwing more short and intermediate throws to keep the chains moving.
Richardson easily led the NFL with an average depth of target of 13.4 yards through his first five starts, but he finished with an ADOT of 9.6 last week. That should lead to more throws to Downs, who runs 72% of his snaps out of the slot. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions surrender 188.7 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers — the second-highest number in the league.
It's also worth mentioning that Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. struggles against man coverage and the Lions play man at the league's highest rate. With Pittman's target share shrinking to 13.8% against man coverage, expect even more targets for Downs.
Lions vs Colts same-game parlay
Josh Downs Over 52.5 receiving yards
Colts +7.5
Over 50.5
While the Lions have been terrific, it won't be easy to cover more than a touchdown on the road against the Colts, who are 5-4 straight up and 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games. Detroit also just placed middle linebacker Alex Anzalone on the IR and could get gashed on the ground by Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor.
With the Colts running the ball with Taylor and their passing game trending in the right direction, they should be able to move the ball. However, they'll also give up plenty of points to a highly efficient Lions offense that has averaged an incredible 39.1 points per game over their last seven contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Lions vs Colts odds
Lions vs Colts live odds
Lions vs Colts opening odds
- Spread: Detroit -7.5 | Indianapolis +7.5
- Moneyline: Detroit -370 | Indianapolis +290
- Over/Under: Over 51 | Under 51
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Lions vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
- The look-ahead line had the Lions at -6.5, but the spread reopened at -7.5 despite the Colts beating the Jets on the road last week.
- The lookahead total was 49 but reopened at 50.5 due to the Lions dropping 52 points last week and the Colts scoring 28.
- The Lions are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and have gone an incredible 34-13 ATS (72.3%) since the start of the 2022 season.
- The Colts have ruled out LT Bernhard Raimann for the second-straight game, while Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries also remain on the IR.
Lions vs Colts betting trend to know
Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games and has gone 4-1 ATS at home this year. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Colts.
Lions vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-24, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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