The Kansas City Chiefs’ quest for an unbeaten season is over, but they’ll look to start a new win streak on Sunday as they visit the Carolina Panthers.
Though Carolina strung together back-to-back wins before its bye week, my Chiefs vs. Panthers predictions have the hosts on the end of a Kansas City backlash.
Check out my NFL picks for this November 24 matchup, centered around a major rebound for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.
Chiefs vs Panthers prediction
My best bet
Chiefs team total Over 27.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
"You can use it as fuel."
"We'll get back to work and try to use this as a spark."
Everything about Patrick Mahomes’ post-game comments after the Week 11 loss to Buffalo felt ominous for the rest of the NFL.
Sure, the three-time Super Bowl MVP is in the middle of a below-par season by his lofty standards, but I expect the Kansas City Chiefs’ first loss since last December to prompt an immediate response this weekend.
Even with some of the Carolina Panthers' improvements after a 1-7 start, this feels like a dream matchup for Kansas City. The Panthers are giving up 387 yards of offense per game this year — and while they’ve struggled against the pass, they’ve been truly miserable against the run (160 rushing yards allowed per game, the worst mark in the league).
Make no mistake, Mahomes was outplayed by Josh Allen last weekend, so it’s hard to imagine a competitor like No. 15 coming back with pedestrian numbers in Carolina. It’s equally tough to think that Travis Kelce will have another two-catch day.
Instead, I like the plus-odds Over on 27.5 points for the Chiefs at Bank of America Stadium, especially with JuJu Smith-Schuster expected to be healthier alongside Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, and Xavier Worthy.
Kansas City has scored first in three of its last five road games, while the Panthers have hit the 1H Over in 12 of their past 19 contests. Despite better defensive efforts in its last two outings, Carolina is still giving up 31 points per game this year.
That suggests the scoreboard will be ticking along on Sunday. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes the last time these teams squared off, and I’m backing the visitors to rediscover some of their offensive juice.
Chiefs vs Panthers same-game parlay
Chiefs team total Over 27.5
Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown
Bryce Young Under 175.5 passing yards
Isiah Pacheco is inching towards a return from his fractured fibula, so the days of Kareem Hunt as the Chiefs’ feature back are dwindling. But even if Pacheco takes a share of the snaps in Week 12, I still see value in the Hunt anytime touchdown prop.
Despite only playing in seven games so far this year, Hunt is tied with Derrick Henry for carries inside the five-yard line (15). He’s found the end zone five times already and I expect more opportunities on Sunday against this shaky Carolina run defense.
I’m also fading Bryce Young’s passing yards prop. This has been one of my favorite picks in prior weeks too, with the Panthers rolling out an inexperienced receiving corps.
Young has fallen short of this 175.5 passing yards O/U line in all but one of his starts this season, including a 126-yard effort last time out against the Giants. Even with the bye-week prep, I don’t like his chances of getting the better of Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive game plan.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Chiefs vs Panthers odds
Chiefs vs Panthers live odds
Chiefs vs Panthers opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -11.5 | Carolina +11.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -700 | Carolina +500
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chiefs vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Chiefs enter as double-digit favorites, despite failing to cover the spread in any of their last four contests. However, the visitors have covered the 4Q spread in 13 of their past 20 outings.
- The Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games and have only covered the 1H spread in four of their last 19 contests.
- The Over is 7-3 in Carolina’s 10 games this season, and it’s been a winning ticket in three of Kansas City’s past four games.
- The Panthers have allowed 34+ points five times this year.
Chiefs vs Panthers betting trend to know
The Chiefs have cashed in the 2H moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Panthers.
Chiefs vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-24, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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