The Memphis Tigers will look to put a cap on a successful season as they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers tonight in the Frisco Bowl.
The Tigers have the talent edge and should be the more motivated team in this postseason matchup, which is why I’ll be taking them to cover in my Memphis vs. West Virginia predictions.
Read on to see where I’m placing my Frisco Bowl bets in my free college football picks for Tuesday, December 17, with kick-off slated for 9:00 p.m. live on ESPN.
Memphis vs West Virginia prediction and best bet
Who will win Memphis vs West Virginia?
Memphis has been the better team this year, even after accounting for their weaker AAC schedule. Tigers quarterback Seth Henigan will want to go out on a high note after an excellent four-year college career and has the chance to break even more conference records on Tuesday. I’m taking Memphis to get the win and finish off an impressive 11-win season with a victory over West Virginia.
My best bet
Memphis -4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
West Virginia may have had a better season if they could have stopped any of their opponents from scoring. That’s going to be a serious problem in the Frisco Bowl, where the Mountaineers will be facing off against a quality Memphis offense that’s averaging 35.2 ppg on the season.
That’s bad news for West Virginia, which allows 31.1 ppg and has seen other prolific offenses go well above that number this year. But the troubles for the Mountaineers will go well above and beyond the raw numbers.
The Memphis offense is powered by senior quarterback Seth Henigan, who has quietly been one of the best four-year quarterbacks in the nation throughout his career. Henigan threw for 23 touchdowns and 3,208 yards this year and has the AAC record for career passing yards at 13,972 yards, and is just two passing touchdowns behind the career conference record of 104.
He’ll have every opportunity to do that against the Mountaineers. West Virginia has been among the worst teams in the nation against the pass, allowing 9.0 yards per attempt (132nd amongst BCS teams) and a 158.1 passing rating to opposing quarterbacks (125th). While the Mountaineers have been solid enough against the run, chances are that the pass-heavy Memphis offense will lean even more into that mold on Tuesday.
Can West Virginia keep up in a shootout? The Mountaineers probably can’t rely on their own passing attack, as quarterback Garrett Greene threw for just 13 touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the year. They’d much prefer to keep the ball on the ground, where they averaged 4.7 yards per rush and have found paydirt 24 times this year. But the Memphis defense has shut down opposing runners all season long, giving up just 103.9 yards per game on the ground.
This looks like a poor matchup for West Virginia on both sides of the ball. Both teams are bringing their normal lineups into the game, so I’m going with the better team with the better game plan to win this one. I’m taking the Tigers to cover.
Memphis vs West Virginia same-game parlay (SGP)
Memphis -4.5
Over 58.5
Seth Henigan 2+ passing TDs
Memphis should win this one based on the strength of its offense, and that’s how I’ll be playing this same-game parlay. That means throwing in a bet on the Over as well. Memphis has hit the Over in five of its last six games, while West Virginia has allowed at least 21 points in each of its last seven games, including three games in which opponents scored 45+ points.
That will give plenty of opportunities for Henigan to add to his college numbers one last time. I’m taking the Tigers' senior quarterback to throw for at least two passing touchdowns, something he did in eight of his 12 regular season games this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Memphis vs West Virginia odds
Memphis vs West Virginia live odds
Memphis vs West Virginia opening odds
- Memphis vs. West Virginia spread: West Virginia +4.5
- Memphis vs. West Virginia moneyline: Memphis -190, West Virginia +160
- Memphis vs. West Virginia Over/Under: 58.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Memphis vs West Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis
- Memphis is 6-5-1 against the spread this season, with West Virginia going 5-7 ATS on the year.
- The Tigers were 4-5-1 ATS as a favorite this season, while the Mountaineers were 4-5 ATS as an underdog.
- The Over has an 8-4 record in West Virginia’s games this season. Memphis is an even 6-6 against the total for the year.
- The Tigers are averaging a total of 58.0 ppg this year, with the Mountaineers playing to an average total of 59.6 ppg.
- According to Covers consensus, 67% of bets are on the Memphis Tigers, with 70% of bets on the Over.
Memphis vs West Virginia betting trend to know
Memphis is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Memphis vs West Virginia.
Memphis vs West Virginia game info
| Location: | Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-17-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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