In the final game of the first round of the College Football Playoff, Ohio State hosts Tennessee on Saturday night from Ohio Stadium in Columbus.
Despite both teams having plenty of talent on offense, our Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions expect this matchup to be a low-scoring, tight, bloodbath between two of the best defenses in college football.
Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, December 21.
Tennessee vs Ohio State predictions
Early spread lean
Tennessee +7.5(-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While Ohio State does have home-field advantage, being a 7.5-point favorite is about as shocking as Ryan Day losing to Michigan for the fourth straight time.
These teams are far too equally matched for the Tennessee Volunteers to be such a heavy underdog, even on the road. I ultimately have Ohio State winning this one, but by more than a touchdown is a large ask, especially based on how the Buckeyes looked the last time they were on the field.
Both teams rank top eight in SP+, with Tennessee’s defense posing a massive challenge for an Ohio State offense that’s been uncharacteristically bland when taking on top-tier opponents.
Despite averaging 35.5 points per game this season, the Buckeyes were far less productive against the top defenses they played. In five games against defenses that rank top 15 in SP+ - Oregon, Nebraska, Michigan, Indiana, and Iowa — Day’s team scored 21 or fewer three times.
And those struggles may be even worse going forward. After losing potential first-round left tackle Josh Simmons for the season earlier this year, the Buckeyes lost Rimington Trophy winner Seth McLaughlin to a torn Achilles in practice ahead of the Michigan game.
His absence was apparent when Ohio State scored just 10 points and Wolverines defensive tackle Mason Graham spent the majority of the game in the backfield. While the Vols don’t have a player as disruptive as Graham on the interior, their defensive line is still loaded.
James Pearce Jr., Omarr Norman-Lott, and Joshua Josephs all have a pass rush win rate of 15.1% or better and should give Will Howard a difficult evening.
Obviously, Tennessee will need to score some points to cover, too. While Nico Iamaleava has taken his lumps, he’s surrounded by talented playmakers.
Running back Dylan Sampson just won SEC Offensive Player of the Year and ranks sixth in the country in missed tackles forced (71). Meanwhile, wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. leads the country in average yards per reception (25.9) and third in yards per route run (4.13).
Those two are capable of creating enough explosives for Tennessee to lose somewhere in the range of 24-20. However, I don’t think this line will see much movement given the public's love to back a blue blood like Ohio State.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 46.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While Tennessee’s dominant defense will keep the Vols in this game, it’s Jim Knowles’ defense in Columbus that’s been the best in the country for much of the season.
That spells some trouble for Iamaleava, who has struggled with consistency throughout his redshirt freshman campaign. The 20-year-old has accounted for just one big-time throw with three turnover-worthy plays in his last three games.
The Vols haven’t lit up the scoreboard against teams with actual College Football Playoff talent this season, averaging just 20.5 points against Alabama and Georgia. While those two programs have similar blue-chip defensive talent as the Buckeyes, it’s Ohio State’s defense that’s No. 1 in SP+.
With a defensive line full of future NFL players, Ohio State should be able to beat up on Tennessee’s offensive line and be all over Iamaleava. The Buckeyes are No. 3 in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback on defense this season.
I’d be shocked if Tennessee can score more than 20 points against an Ohio State defense that’s allowing the fewest points per game in the country (10.9) and has given up more than 17 just once this season (in its loss to No. 1 Oregon).
But the Volunteers will need to do their part to keep this total Under 46.5, and they’re more than capable of doing it given Ohio State’s injuries up front. Ohio State is No. 9 in SP+ on offense this season, and this Tennessee defense held Alabama (No. 3 in SP+ on offense) to just 17 points.
The Volunteers’ defensive line is a wrecking crew, but there’s talent everywhere on Tim Banks’ side of the ball. That’s why Tennessee is No. 1 in EPA per rush and No. 4 in EPA per dropback on defense.
Given how destructive both of these defenses are, I think we could see this total drop to as low as 45.5 by Saturday night.
Tennessee vs Ohio State State live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
