Two of the top teams in the AAC will face off tonight as Memphis travels to Tulane for an important matchup.
The Tigers are playing for better bowl position, and my Memphis vs. Tulane predictions expect quarterback Seth Henigan to take the Green Wave's defense to task.
Settle in for a football feast as I break down my college football picks for Thursday, November 28.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, with the game airing on ESPN.
Memphis vs Tulane prediction and best bet
Who will win Memphis vs Tulane?
Tulane has a shot at the College Football Playoff, but it means winning out. Victories over Memphis and Army would put them in a position to possibly top the Big 12 champion and sneak in, providing we see some more chaos this week.
For that reason, I’m backing the Green Wave to get the job done. They take care of the football, have a quarterback who can make plays when needed, and have a better defense than Memphis. This won’t be an easy win by any means, but the extra motivation will help them get the job done in front of the home crowd on Senior Night.
My best bet
Seth Henigan Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This Tulane Green Wave defense has been stellar this season, ranking first nationally in late-down success rate and second in overall success rate. The Green Wave defense also ranks third in EPA/pass and Top 10 in early down EPA and yards allowed per pass. They’ve also allowed just 10 touchdown passes all season.
However, the Green Wave have also faced some teams that don’t throw the ball well to begin with. In fact, Tulane’s only gone up against one of the Top-3 passing teams in the AAC season.
That was North Texas, whom the Green Wave narrowly beat 45-37 on the road. North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 449 yards and three touchdowns in that game. And while I don’t think he’ll quite reach those numbers, Memphis Tigers quarterback Seth Henigan can similarly test this defense.
Henigan can become the 15th player in FBS history to reach 15,000 career passing yards, entering the game needing just 246 yards to do so. He’s also put together a terrific career where he’s thrown at least one touchdown in 47 of 48 career starts.
On Senior Night, he threw for 299 yards and four touchdowns in a 53-18 win over UAB. It was his second 4+ passing touchdown performance in three games and gave him seven multi-touchdown games in 11 starts.
Tulane’s defense ranks Top 30 in sack rate and interception rate, but Henigan’s thrown just six interceptions in 422 attempts this season and has been sacked just 15 times. He’s got a strong group of targets, with five different players having caught between 33 and 54 passes. And running back Mario Anderson, Jr is a bruising tailback who has rushed for over 1,100 yards and keeps the offense balanced.
It’s not going to be an easy game for Henigan by any means, but getting plus-money odds for him to throw multiple scores in what will be the final regular-season game of an excellent career is terrific value.
Memphis vs Tulane same-game parlay (SGP)
Seth Henigan 250+ passing yards
Mario Anderson anytime touchdown
Over 55.5
As we can’t parlay our best bet, we’re going to pivot a bit and look at Henigan’s passing total. He's thrown for 250+ yards in six of his 11 games this season and in three of his four road trips. In fact, he’s got a much higher output on the road than at home this season, averaging 326.5 passing yards per away contest. Look for him to clear that number as he goes for the 15K career mark.
Only Florida State has kept Mario Anderson from the endzone this season. The dynamic back has found the endzone on the ground 16 times this season, and only the Noles and USF have denied him a rushing score. He caught a touchdown against the Bulls, one of two he’s hauled in on 44 catches this year.
In ACC play, Tulane has only faced two offenses ranked in the Top 90 in EPA/play — one of which was North Texas. That game saw 82 points scored, and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair here. Memphis is running the ball very well, and both of these offenses are efficient, with few turnover issues. Take the Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Memphis vs Tulane odds
Memphis vs Tulane live odds
Memphis vs Tulane opening odds
- Memphis vs. Tulane spread: Tulane -13.5
- Memphis vs. Tulane moneyline: Memphis +390, Tulane -525
- Memphis vs. Tulane Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Memphis vs Tulane spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tulane opened as 13.5-point favorites but the line has since moved to a flat -14. The Tigers have only covered ATS twice in their last eight games with a push, while the Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight.
- This spread is tough, but I’m leaning towards taking the points. Memphis is very well-balanced offensively and will put pressure on Tulane like few teams have.
- The total sits at 55.5, where it opened, although it did sit at 56.5 for two days earlier this week. The Over is 4-1 in Memphis’ last five games. The Over and Unver have alternated in Tulane’s last eight, with the Under hitting last week.
- 64% of Covers Consensus users are backing Memphis on the spread, while 74% are taking the Over.
Memphis vs Tulane betting trend to know
The Tigers have cashed the first-half moneyline in nine of their last 10 games (+8.60 units / 20% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Memphis vs. Tulane.
Memphis vs Tulane game info
| Location: | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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