The college basketball season is back, and Ohio State’s Jake Diebler opens his tenure as full-time head coach against a ranked Texas team at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Both of these teams leaned on explosive guards to carry their offenses last season, and I’m expecting much of the same in my Ohio State vs. Texas predictions and college basketball picks for Monday, November 4.
My best bet
Over 146 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Despite both teams bringing a new look to the floor this season with the Ohio State Buckeyes having Jake Diebler as the full-time coach and the Texas Longhorns loading up via the transfer portal, neither team should be fundamentally different.
Last season, both programs were among the best Over bets in the power conferences with the Buckeyes hitting it in 22 of 36 games (61.1%) and Texas in 20 of 34 games (58.8%). And both programs closed out the year even better — the Buckeyes hit the Over in 13 of their last 18 and the Longhorns in 15 of their last 21.
Diebler was the Buckeyes’ interim bench boss for the last 11 of those games, and during that stretch Ohio State averaged 77.9 points per game — up from their season average of 75.5. He also managed to bring back the Buckeyes leading scorer from last season, Bruce Thornton.
Thornton put up 15.7 points per game last year and got away from playing iso ball once Diebler took over, which is a large reason why the offense started to blossom. Diebler also managed to bring in a few key portal pieces, including Meechie Johnson Jr.
Johnson, who began his career at Ohio State, spent the last two seasons at South Carolina averaging double-digit points. He and Thornton give the Buckeyes a talented scoring backcourt, which is a large reason why Ohio State’s offense is ranked 24th in KenPom’s preseason rankings.
However, the defense does remain a question — ranked 39th by KenPom — and the Longhorns should be able to exploit it with their new additions.
Though last year’s leading scorers Max Abmas and Dylan Disu are gone, Rodney Terry brought in the perfect replacements. Guard Tramon Mark (Arkansas) and forward Arthur Kaluma (Kansas State) should fill their roles well.
And those weren’t the only talented new additions, with Oregon State’s Jordan Pope and Indiana State’s Jayson Kent and Julian Larry giving Terry several scorers he can lean on. Those five all averaged double-digits last season at their previous schools.
That depth should create problems for an Ohio State rotation that rarely went deeper than seven last season.
This neutral site opener featuring several skilled scorers should see enough points for the Over to hit.
Texas vs Ohio State same-game parlay
Over 145.5
Meechie Johnson Jr. Over 9.5 points
Tramon Mark Over 12.5 points
Rarely do you see a rotational player transfer out of a program just to transfer back a few seasons later after establishing himself as a star scorer at another program. But that’s exactly what Johnson is doing, which speaks to how much he respects Diebler, the coach who initially recruited him to Columbus.
Johnson put up 14.1 points per game for the Gamecocks last season and there’s no reason to think he’ll have a reduced role in Columbus. The senior scored 10-plus points in 22 of 33 games last season (66.7%).
Another transfer set to shine on the other side of the court is Tramon Mark. The former Houston and Arkansas guard put up 16.2 last season with the Razorbacks and managed at least 13 points in 19 of 31 games (61.2%).
With Abmas gone, there’s a large scoring role available in Terry’s backcourt, and Mark is the perfect player to fill it.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs Ohio State odds
Texas vs Ohio State live odds
Texas vs Ohio State opening odds
- Spread: Texas -3 | Ohio State +3
- Moneyline: Texas -155 | Ohio State +130
- Over/Under: Over 146 | Under 146
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Texas has hit the game total Over in 15 of its last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Ohio State.
How to watch Texas vs Ohio State
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Monday, 11-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Texas vs Ohio State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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