Iowa State vs Iowa Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s College Basketball Game

Ponnaiya's best bet: Cyclones/Hawkeyes struggle for points.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya ? Betting Analyst
Dec 12, 2024 ? 14:22 ET ? 4 min read

NCAAB

Match starts: 2 hrs
IOWA
69 %
ISU
31 %
Read Analysis
Curtis Jones Iowa State Cyclones NCAAB
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Iowa Hawkeyes host the No. 3 ranked Iowa State Cyclones in college basketball action tonight.

The total for this game opened at 159.5 and has ticked up to 161 but my Iowa State vs. Iowa predictions are going against the line movement.

Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash between rivals on December 12.

Iowa State vs Iowa prediction

My best bet
Under 161.5 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

This total is too high when you consider that the Iowa State Cyclones are eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. This is a Cyclones squad that led the country in adjusted defense last year while holding foes to just 61.5 points per game. They returned four of five starters including high-end defenders Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, and Curtis Jones so they should be able to keep the Iowa Hawkeyes offense in check. 

The Hawkeyes are 7-2 thanks to an efficient offense but they haven't faced anybody with the on-ball defense that the Cyclones possess. It's also worth mentioning that when they faced ISU on the road last year with many of the same players, they were held to 65 points on 39% shooting. 

On the other side of the floor, the Cyclones have been shooting far better than last year, with their EFG% climbing from 52% to 57.2%. However, that number is inflated by four contests against teams outside the Top 275 of the KenPom ratings and their shooting should see regression in their first true road contest of the season. 

The Cyclones have been playing at a speedy pace this season, ranking 14th in the country in average possession length (15.2 seconds) and 89th in adjusted tempo. That said, I'm expecting them to significantly slow down their pace as we get into the meat of their schedule. Keep in mind that with the same ball-handlers and coach last season, they ranked 144th in offensive possession length (17.3 seconds) and 201st in adjusted tempo. 

With their relentless ball pressure, they did a great job of slowing down opponents and that will be crucial to their success against a Hawkeyes side that likes to push the pace. The Hawkeyes also do a good job of forcing turnovers so expect both offenses to take their time setting up in the half-court and look to minimize mistakes. 

Iowa State vs Iowa same-game parlay

Under 161.5

Iowa State Moneyline

Curtis Jones Over 4.5 rebounds

Hawkeye-Carver Arena is an extremely tough venue for visitors which is why I'm wary of laying 5.5 points with ISU. That said, the Cyclones are the better defensive team and have the more athletic lineup. The Hawkeyes are outside the Top 300 in opponent 2-point percentage (56.7%) while the Cyclones are 15th in 2-point percentage (59.9%) and should be able to get the buckets they need to win outright.

Jones is coming off a one-rebound performance in a blowout win against Jackson State. However, he had grabbed 5+ boards in six of his first seven games this season and faces an Iowa side that ranks just 289th in rebounding rate (46.9%).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!

Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Iowa State vs Iowa odds

Iowa State vs Iowa live odds

Iowa State vs Iowa opening odds

  • Spread: Iowa State -6.5 | Iowa +6.5
  • Moneyline: Iowa State -280 | Iowa +230
  • Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Iowa State vs Iowa betting trend to know

The Under is 18-8 in Iowa State's last 26 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Iowa.

How to watch Iowa State vs Iowa

Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA
Date: Thursday, 12-12-2024
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

Iowa State vs Iowa key injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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