The slumping Toronto Blue Jays have lost eight of their last 11 games, and the pressure is building as they face the Washington Nationals today.
My Blue Jays vs Nationals for May 4 are targeting the Under as a way to fade the Jays' putrid offense, and my MLB picks go into more detail on why you should too.
Blue Jays vs Nationals prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-122 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Despite yesterday’s showdown racing to the Over down the stretch, I’m locked in on the Under today. For all the assurances from Toronto Blue Jays skipper John Schneider that his lineup is going to turn things around, there’s not much evidence that an uptick in production is around the corner.
It was a familiar story last night as the Blue Jays were blanked in eight of the nine innings and managed just three runs. They’ve only scored more than three runs in one of their past 10 contests — and George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette combined to go 1-for-12 last night.
Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals entered this series after managing just two runs across a three-game series with the Texas Rangers and they didn’t get much going offensively until the eighth frame yesterday.
That makes the Under an attractive play this afternoon. It’s 7-3 in the visitors’ past 10 outings and 20-13 overall for Toronto this season. Though the Over has hit in five of the last six meetings between these teams, I see the pitchers having the upper hand in this latest battle at Nationals Park.
Kevin Gausman is another factor in liking the Under here. He’s found his footing after looking rusty in his first two starts of 2024, and he gave up just a single run in seven innings of work against the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend. His strikeouts are down, but he hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his past three starts.
Washington starter Jake Irvin is more of a wild card in his second season, but he’s an unknown for a Toronto team that’s never faced him. He threw six steady innings on Monday against the Miami Marlins, and I see him continuing that form this afternoon.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at PROLINE+)
While Guerrero Jr.’s .232 batting average has contributed to the Blue Jays’ sluggish start to the season, he’s had a strong week at the plate and is one of the few Toronto hitters showing signs of life.
Vladdy has strung together eight hits over the last six games, including three doubles, and seems to be putting a disappointing April behind him.
I’m taking the Over and banking on Guerrero Jr. to figure out Irvin and drive in a run today.
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Blue Jays vs Nationals odds
Blue Jays vs Nationals live odds
Blue Jays vs Nationals opening odds
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+100) | Washington +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Toronto -175 | Washington +145
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-125) | Under 8 (-105)
Blue Jays vs Nationals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nationals are underdogs this afternoon, but they’re 7-3 in their last 10 games and can get back to .500 with a win here.
- It’s a little surprising to see Toronto as a favorite today after falling to three straight losses, including yesterday’s bullpen meltdown from Erik Swanson and Tim Mayza — but those moneyline odds are likely prompted by Gausman’s edge in the pitching matchup against the less experienced Irvin.
- The Blue Jays have only scored 111 runs this season — the fourth lowest mark in the majors — and their .225 batting average is another indication of the subpar at bats from a line-up that’s short on power hitters.
- Irvin has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his last four outings — and he’s picked up the win in two of his past three starts.
Blue Jays vs Nationals trend
The Blue Jays have hit the first five innings (F5) team total Under in 18 of their last 26 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Nationals
Blue Jays vs Nationals game info
| Location: | Nationals Park, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (1-3, 4.50 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | Jake Irvin (2-2, 4.28 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Nationals latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Nationals weather
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