US Presidential Election: Bettors Going Big on Trump vs. Harris Presidential Election Betting Odds

The campaigns are over. The commercials are (almost) finished. Those lawn signs can go.

It's decision time.

Covers will be on top of all the Election Day happenings as we monitor every major move in the presidential election odds race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

As a somewhat uneventful Monday gives way to what is sure to be a chaotic Tuesday, here's what you can expect from us as the drama unfolds across the U.S.:

• Up-to-the-minute coverage of how the Donald Trump odds and Kamala Harris odds shift throughout the day
• Breakdowns of the Trump vs. Harris odds at major betting exchanges, which are expecting to shatter records for handle
• Expert commentary from Geoff Zochodne and Ryan Butler regarding how developments from Election Day will impact betting odds and exchange markets
• More action across our biggest election bets tracker, with both Kalshi and Polymarket expecting some truly massive wagers to come in before the results are settled
• Context, predictions and analysis from Butler on the results of five major gambling-related issues that will be decided at the ballot box

We'll have additional coverage as warranted ¨C so join us Tuesday as we provide the most detailed look at the election betting picture as news becomes available.

Our Tuesday blog goes live at 8 a.m. ET; until then, check out our Monday recap below for a look at odds movement, massive election bets, and notable news.

The focus across the major betting exchanges will be on the Trump vs. Harris odds, and which candidate will prevail in their quest to become President of the United States.

But amid the chaos of Election Day and the frenetic movement of the presidential election odds, it's a good time to pour one out for traders on Polymarket who have significant sums of dead money that will officially be buried once the election results are official.

Here's a look at notable positions on candidates who are out of the running courtesy Polymarket, which has been offering contracts throughout the 2024 election cycle:

Joe Biden

• Two holders have more than 15 million shares
• Six holders own more than 10 million shares

Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 in one of the most stunning developments of the election cycle.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

• Two holders own in excess of 13 million shares
• Four holders own more than 12 million shares

Kennedy suspended his presidential campaign Aug. 23 and promptly endorsed Trump.

Ron DeSantis

• Two holders have more than 15 million shares
• Five holders own 12 million or more shares

DeSantis was quickly overmatched by Trump in the primaries, ending his presidential bid Jan. 21 and throwing his support behind Trump.

Kanye West

• One trader has more than 20 million shares
• Five traders own more than 13 million shares

Yeah, we don't have anything to add here.

Things have settled down across the presidential election odds landscape as of Monday night, with the Donald Trump odds sitting in the -160 to -165 range.

That implied probability of approximately 62% puts the former president comfortably ahead of his Democratic challenger, with the Kamala Harris odds sitting around +140 (for an implied probability of 41.7%).

The majority of secondary markets have also settled in as the betting world braces for a wild Election Day.

Harris is still a hefty -350 favorite to win the popular vote over Trump (+275), and is listed at -110 to draw between 49% and 52% of the total vote tally. Trump, on the flip side, is +110 to finish at between 46% and 49% (and an identical +110 to land between 49-52%.)

The most intriguing set of state presidential odds continues to be Pennyslvania, which is widely considered to be the No. 1 option to tip the election results. As of Monday night, bet365 had Trump at -138 to prevail in PA, compared to Harris at +110.

Maybe the single biggest bet of this election was revealed late on Monday.

Polymarket announced one of the users of its crypto-based prediction market had placed a $15.2-million wager on Trump to win the election at odds of around -159. The Trump bet would pay more than $9.5 million if the Republican can retake the White House.

While that may not be the most any single Polymarket user has bet on a candidate this election ¡ª there is reportedly a French national with around $45 million riding on a Trump win ¡ª it might be the single biggest bet on a candidate.

The Trump ¡°whale¡± broke their action up into a few different wagers via a few different accounts, so a single, $15-million play could be the largest solo bet thus far. Just a bit of informed speculation there.

Nevertheless, Polymarket also highlighted later on Monday a $5-million bet that was made on a Harris victory, at odds of around +117. The wager would pay north of $5.8 million if the Democrats can hang on to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

We are tracking the biggest bets on the U.S. presidential election to the best of our ability here, so go check it out if you want to get a sense of how convinced some people are of their political opinions.

As expected, a wave of wagering is rolling over prediction markets and sportsbooks as bettors rush to get in their plays before the polls open tomorrow morning.

At Kalshi, for instance, trading volumes have shot up significantly. As of around 5:15 p.m. ET today, more than $215 million worth of Trump and Harris contracts had been traded in the operator's presidential election market. A week ago, volume in just that market alone had just passed the $87-million mark.

However, while Kalshi¡¯s presidential election market is its most popular with punters, it¡¯s not the only one the operator offers. Moreover, not all of Kalshi¡¯s contracts are single-event wagers, so to speak.

Kalshi now has a page dedicated to "parlays," such as if Harris will win the presidency but lose in Michigan, or if a candidate will win the popular vote and the Electoral College. Those markets are attracting more and more attention from bettors, including nearly $15 million that had been staked as of Monday evening on various combinations for who will win the House, Senate, and White House.

Meanwhile, at 5:30 p.m. ET, Kalshi's "yes" contract for Trump winning the election was priced at 56 cents. Harris' was 44 cents, which projected the Democrat as an underdog at odds of approximately +127.

¡°While Trump should be considered a slight favorite heading into Election Day, this is still a close race, and many market indicators show positive signs for Harris,¡± a Kalshi spokesperson said in an email Monday evening. ¡°She still has a large lead in Michigan and a solid lead in Wisconsin, and the blue wall states are more likely than not to all vote for the same candidate.¡±

The situation is similar abroad, with business picking up at sportsbooks and exchanges.

In the U.K., Betfair reported Monday morning that more than ?20 million had been bet on Trump and Trump alone to win in the past 24 hours. On Nov. 1, the operator said more than ?2.3m had been wagered over the past 24 hours on a Trump win, meaning daily wagering has increased almost tenfold.

¡°While the weekend saw a gamble on Kamala Harris, the opposite has been true of the last 24 hours,¡± Betfair said on Monday evening. ¡°Trump touched [-125] after favourable polling for the Democrats but has since been backed in to a current [-147].¡±

With Amendment 2 on Tuesday¡¯s Election Day ballot, allowing voters to determine if Missouri legalizes sports wagering, the political action committee Winning for Missouri Education recently went on a major advertising campaign. 

The NFL¡¯s Chiefs, MLB¡¯s Royals, and NWSL¡¯s Current took out a full-page ad in the Kansas City Star, urging their fans to vote ¡°Yes¡± to sports betting. 

¡°Together, as the three Kansas City, Missouri, professional sports teams, we believe that tax revenue earned from sports betting by Missourians should go to classrooms in Missouri, not ones in neighboring states,¡± the coalition stated. 

The coalition estimates that legal sports betting in Missouri can produce $100 million in tax revenue over the next five years. That money would go to Missouri¡¯s public schools. 

Read the rest of the article here.

Let¡¯s go around the horn for an update on the election betting odds. These are as of around 4 p.m. ET today.

In the U.S.

Kalshi's contract prices projected a 54% chance of Republican Donald Trump winning the presidential election and gave Democrat Kamala Harris a 46% likelihood.

However, at PredictIt, the price of a contract for Harris to win the election was 55 cents, while Trump's was 52 cents. In other words, Trump was the favorite at Kalshi but the underdog at PredictIt.

In Canada/Ontario

bet365: Trump -163, Harris +140
BetMGM: Trump -154, Harris +130
DraftKings: Trump -160, Harris +130
FanDuel: Trump -164, Harris +134

In the U.K.

Betfair: Trump -150, Harris +150
Ladbrokes: Trump -150, Harris +130
Star Sports: Trump -143, Harris +120

Presidential betting odds can fluctuate wildly on Election Day. Two House of Representatives races could jump-start the chaos.

Virginia's Second and Seventh House districts will be among the first close races reported in any jurisdiction Tuesday evening. The two competitive districts have received attention from both parties and could be an early indicator of national moods. If either party overperforms expectations by starting to pull away not long after polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time, it could begin shifting presidential betting odds.

Of course, two Congressional races in Virginia are not direct indicators of voters in the other 49 states, or the seven swing states that will likely determine the election. But as presidential races have become increasingly nationalized, both parties will be focusing outsized attention on any early developments that go against expectations.

Every vote counts, but in Pennsylvania, they are really gonna count.

Case in point: at Kalshi, there is a "tipping point" market that has Pennsylvania as the favorite by a wide margin.

In other words, Kalshi users are betting that Pennsylvania, more so than any other state, will be the one that finally gets a candidate to the 270 Electoral College votes they need to win the White House.

As of Monday afternoon, the price of Pennsylvania's contract in the "tipping point" market was up to 43 cents apiece. Wisconsin was second at 17 cents, or a 17% likelihood that it will be the state to clinch the election for a candidate. North Carolina was the third-highest-priced state at 13 cents.

The candidates themselves are highlighting the importance of Pennsylvania by spending a lot of time today in the Keystone State, Harris especially. The vice president is scheduled to be in Pennsylvania all day on Tuesday ¡ª her grand finale will be a rally at the "Rocky Steps" in Philadelphia ¡ª but Trump is supposed to make stops in Reading and Pittsburgh as well.

So a lot of eyes will be on PA tomorrow and with good reason. It could be Pennsylvania that decides a lot of bets tomorrow ¡­ or whenever this election is officially settled.

Quick PA odds update: in Ontario, bet365 has the Republicans favored at -138 to win Pennsylvania and the Democrats at +110. In the U.K., Betfair has the Republicans priced at -120 to take Pennsylvania and the Democrats at +120.

More than 130 billionaires have contributed to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, with plenty of money given to both the Republican candidate, former president Donald Trump, and Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris. While Harris has seen more overall support from billionaires, according to a breakdown by Forbes, some prominent figures in the gambling industry are among the ultra-wealthy donors backing her opponent.

Four billionaires working in the gambling industry in some capacity, including Miriam Adelson, Steve Wynn, Phil Ruffin, and Kenny Troutt, have all donated to Donald Trump's reelection campaign.

The gambling leaders backing the Trump campaign have all contributed at least $1 million to the cause. 

Read the rest of the article here.

I write about betting for a living but that doesn¡¯t mean I¡¯m a great or even good bettor. That said, I made my first bet for this year¡¯s presidential election last night and I feel like it¡¯s worth noting.

The bet, placed at bet365 in Ontario (where I live), was that Democrat Kamala Harris would win Iowa. It was a 4/1 shot when I made the wager, or +400. The market has since moved to Republicans -450/Democrats +333.

Now, what possessed me to do this? Polling, naturally. As my colleague Ryan Butler noted earlier, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll published over the weekend had Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa. It's a projection I took seriously enough to make a (small) bet.

The same poll projected Trump would beat Joe Biden by seven percentage points in 2020; the Republican won by 8.2 points. In 2016, the poll predicted Trump over Hillary Clinton by seven points as well; Trump triumphed by 9.4 points.

However, in 2012, the Register's survey projected that Democrat Barack Obama was leading Mitt Romney by five points; the president won Iowa by 5.8 points. In 2008, the poll also pointed toward Obama, giving him a 17-point lead; he'd win by 10.

You have to go back to 2004 to find a year in which the Register's poll and the result disagreed with each other. That year, the final Iowa Poll showed Democrat John Kerry up five points going into Election Day; incumbent President George W. Bush won Iowa by 0.7 points.

So the poll isn¡¯t perfect, but it does a pretty good job of predicting the winner. And at +400, I¡¯ll take my chances that it's right again.

Anyway, that's the first of what could be a few bets from me. We'll have some betting analysis tomorrow from our actual expert on the subject, Rohit Ponnaiya.

Iowa, the state best know in political circles for its early role in the primary process, may have upended the presidential race - or at least the election betting odds.

A stunning Des Moines Register poll released Saturday showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in Iowa, a state that had voted for him by more than 8 points in 2020 and nearly 10 points in 2016. Even if Harris weren't to win Iowa, the unexpected result indicated she could have unexpected strength in other key Midwestern states, including Michigan and Wisconsin. 

This sent odds shooting over from Trump and to Harris late Saturday night. Though the US election odds had edged back slightly toward Trump by Monday morning, the poll has already altered sportsbooks' and betting market's telemetries ahead of Election Day.

Donald Trump is seeing significant positive movement across a pair of notable exchange sites Monday morning.

As of 10 a.m. ET, Kalshi had Trump back at 56% to win the U.S. presidential election, with Kamala Harris back down to 44%. The vice president actually led briefly Saturday night following the release of a stunning Iowa poll that had her ahead by three points. But the candidates have once again drifted apart.

A Trump win is now trading at $0.57, with a loss at $0.44. Conversely, a Harris victory is priced at $0.44 while a defeat is set at +0.57.

Business is picking up at Kalshi, which has seen more than $55 million in action since Friday.

Polymarket is even more bullish toward the former president who sits at 57.7% to win in the latest Trump vs Harris odds. A Trump "Yes" is trading at 58.8 cents, while a Harris "Yes" is back down to 41.4 cents.

Polymarket has seen a staggering $3.13 billion in action over the course of the 2024 election cycle, with Trump doing more than $1.23 billion in value and Harris at $783.1 million.

We¡¯re officially on upset watch.

Kalshi just sent out their Election Day eve update, noting Trump remains the favorite and that the presidential election could come down to who wins Pennsylvania, among other things.

However, the prediction market also said that ¡°[w]e should be on the lookout for a dramatic surprise,¡± as markets for Trump and Harris winning states that historically lean toward the other party have ¡°spiked¡± over the past few days.

¡°With both trading around 20-25%, it¡¯s unlikely but entirely possible that we have a huge upset on election night,¡± a Kalshi spokesperson said in an email Monday morning.

The ¡°leading candidates¡± for such a flip are Ohio and Iowa for Harris. Recent polling in the latter state indeed suggested Iowa could return to the Democratic fold for the first time since 2012. Meanwhile, Trump¡¯s best shots for a shock are New Hampshire and, to a lesser extent, Virginia, Kalshi says.

¡°With weekend wires and bank transfers clearing this morning, trading on Kalshi is going to ramp up dramatically,¡± the prediction market added.

It¡¯s been said that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Let¡¯s not make that mistake, shall we?

Monday, Nov. 2, 2020, was the day before Election Day in the U.S. By all accounts, the Democratic challenger Joe Biden was the favorite at that point in the campaign.

On the Betfair Exchange, for example, Biden's price sat at around -192 on Nov. 2, and Republican President Donald Trump was trading in the range of +188.

Biden, of course, would go on to win the election. What¡¯s more, Betfair reported a massive, ?1-million wager on the former vice president to take the White House, the cherry on top of what was a record-breaking election.

"The (?1m) bet is the biggest political bet of all time on the Betfair Exchange and returns a handsome ?1,540,000 if Biden wins the keys to the White House,¡± Betfair Spokesman Sam Rosbottom said at the time. "The 2016 US election's record for being the biggest single betting event of all time was broken by last week and the ?271m bet on the 2020 election means it remains on-course to hit ?400m."

The signals for this election are a bit more mixed.

As of this Monday, Trump was still the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, but his odds lengthened over the past few days before shortening again. Meanwhile, the biggest bet on Betfair this time around has been placed on Democrat Kamala Harris, an approximately $114,470 wager at even money. We're tracking all of the biggest bets on the U.S. election here.

So will Trump triumph, or does a whale know something the market doesn¡¯t? The lesson this time around has yet to reveal itself fully, but there are signs that the outcome is less certain than 2020. Stay tuned!

If you haven¡¯t already gotten invested in this U.S. election ¡ª you know, in addition to everyone having a stake in democracy and politics and policy and whatnot ¡ª there¡¯s still time.

However, depending on where you live, the options for legally wagering on U.S. election odds this year could be limited.

In the U.S., those legal avenues are limited to prediction markets such as Kalshi, PredictIt, and Robinhood. Regulated sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel can¡¯t take bets on the election.

Now, should that be the case? I spent some time last week arguing for the widespread legalization of election betting in the U.S., similar to sports betting. Frankly, not enough people yelled at me about the story, so here¡¯s your chance.

Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom and Canada, regulated sportsbooks can take bets on politics.

For example, in the Canadian province of Ontario, which has a competitive market for online gambling, DraftKings, FanDuel, and other political betting sites are taking action on the 2024 campaign, even though they cannot in their home country.

I'm not going to lie to you: the first draft of this post was all about Donald Trump continuing to enjoy a comfy lead over Kamala Harris on the oddsboard.

But, over the weekend, the race for the White House got much closer. As of this morning, it's widened again.

In short, we went from a 60/40ish election at prediction markets and sportsbooks to a 50/50 proposition. Now it's more like a 55/45 split.

So buckle up. Election Day is just hours away, and the pace and volume of wagering on the 2024 presidential campaign are expected to increase.

As a result, U.S. election odds remain on the move. Let¡¯s take a look at the latest:

U.S.

Just after 7 a.m. ET this morning, prediction market Kalshi was projecting, based on the prices of its election-related contracts, that Republican Donald Trump remains the favorite to win the White House with an approximately 54% likelihood of victory.

While Democrat Kamala Harris' price on the exchange has surged recently, her projected chances sat at around 46% at Kalshi.

Those odds have indeed seen another significant shift in recent days. For example, Trump's forecasted chances of winning reached as high as 65% at Kalshi last week, and Harris' as low as 35%. There was also a brief moment over the weekend where Harris was a 50.8% favorite and Trump a 49.2% underdog.

PredictIt's prices tell a different story this morning. The "yes" contracts for Trump at the "experimental" prediction market were trading at around 51 cents apiece while the "yes" for Harris sat at 55 cents, making her the favorite.

So we've got a difference in opinion, at least for now. There are also differences in how Kalshi and PredictIt operate, including an $850 limit for contracts at the latter market.

Canada

Regulated sportsbooks in the Canadian province of Ontario continue to take action on the presidential election, something some of those same operators can¡¯t do in the U.S.

As of Monday morning, bet365 had Trump priced as a -143 favorite and Harris a +125 underdog. Those odds have been all over the place during the campaign, but more recently, they have trended like those of U.S. prediction markets. Trump had been a -175 favorite at bet365 on Friday, for instance.

Some other odds from Ontario:

BetMGM: Trump -143, Harris +120
DraftKings: Trump -140, Harris +120
FanDuel: Trump -150, Harris +126

Abroad

A huge amount of wagering on the U.S. election is happening overseas, particularly in the United Kingdom. Some of the odds there this morning:

Betfair Exchange: Trump -138, Harris +138
Ladbrokes: Trump -138, Harris +120
Star Sports: Trump -143, Harris +120

And, of course, the massive prediction market over at Polymarket continues to hum along. Based on the latest prices there, Trump is still favored, albeit at a smaller margin than a week ago, with the site projecting an approximately 58% chance of the Republican winning.

Nevertheless, the odds will continue to move as the money pours in. We'll keep you updated before, during, and after Election Day.