Kamala Harris 2024 Odds to Win US Presidential Election: Harris Trails Trump by Wide Margin

Election Day has finally arrived. While Kamala Harris (+800) remains behind Donald Trump (-1400) in the betting odds, many electoral votes are yet to come in.

James Bisson - Contributor at Covers.com
James Bisson ? Contributor
Nov 5, 2024 ? 22:48 ET ? 4 min read
Vice President and Democratic nominee for president Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at Craig Ranch Amphitheater on Friday October 31, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo: Paul Citone/imageSPACE/Sipa USA
Photo By - SIPA

Vice President Kamala Harris remains the betting underdog but is gaining momentum in the US presidential election odds as Election Day continues.

The latest Donald Trump odds suggest the former president is the favorite to win the election, and Trump has received many of the biggest U.S. election bets. However, the VP is making inroads in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, where her odds to win the state are now at +100.

With decision day finally here, will the Democrats find a way back to pole position? Have your say in Covers' US election pick'em contest, and keep up with the latest in our US presidential election betting live blog.    

Candidate Odds to win 2024 US election at bet365 Implied probability
Republican Logo Donald Trump -1400 93.3%
Democratic Logo Kamala Harris +800 11.1%

Let's take a closer look at Kamala Harris' presidential election odds and examine the key obstacles that may stand in her path.

Kamala Harris fast facts

Date of birth October 20, 1964
Place of birth Oakland, CA
Residence Washington, DC
Political affiliation Democratic Party
Net worth $8 million USD
Education Howard University (1986); University of California, Hastings College of the Law (1989)

A true trailblazer in American politics, Harris began her career as a Deputy District Attorney in Alameda County, California, later serving as District Attorney of San Francisco and Attorney General of California, where she gained recognition for her tough stance on crime and progressive initiatives.

In 2017, Harris became just the second African American woman and the first South Asian American senator in history after being elected to represent the state of California.

Known for her tireless advocacy on racial justice, immigration reform, and healthcare, Harris gained national prominence during the 2020 presidential campaign as a candidate for the Democratic nomination. She ultimately became the first woman, first Black person, and first South Asian American to be elected Vice President of the United States, making history and inspiring millions around the world.

She continues to "fight for the people" and deliver for America as a proud member of the Biden-Harris Administration. And while she finds herself trailing in the latest Trump vs. Harris odds, observers should expect to see plenty of odds movement before the market is settled.

2024 presidential election betting odds

Candidate Odds to win 2024 US election at bet365 Implied probability
Republican Logo Donald Trump -1400 93.3%
Democratic Logo Kamala Harris +800 11.1%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Nov. 5, 2024. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.

Obstacles that stand in Harris' path

Harris faces several obstacles on her path to becoming President of the United States, including political polarization and division within the country, which can impact her ability to gather broad bipartisan support. But oddsmakers appear less concerned by the day, having the Democrats a major bump over the past two weeks and narrowing the gap between the Dems and the GOP with news that Harris has officially accepted the party nomination.

Additionally, she will need to navigate the complexities of her own political record and decisions, which may face scrutiny and criticism from opponents and the media. Her tenure as VP has had its share of ups and downs; while she’s continued to advocate for abortion rights and find solutions to the US-Mexico border crisis, both issues have seen significant setbacks under her watch.

Lastly, the historical underrepresentation of women and people of color in top political offices poses a significant barrier. Harris's identity as a woman of Black and South Asian descent brings both opportunities for representation and challenges related to systemic biases and stereotypes. Building a coalition that appeals to a diverse electorate while addressing various policy concerns will be crucial for Harris to overcome these obstacles.

That all said, her approval rating, which was as low as 36.2% just over a month ago, has surged to 44.3% as of Nov. 4 – and her outside-the-box vice presidential pick has largely helped. The Associated Press reported Aug. 6 that Harris tabbed Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to be her running mate – and Walz confirmed the news on X later that day. The closing VP odds had Walz (-300) as a hefty favorite on bet365 over Philadelphia Governor Josh Shapiro (-225).

In the key battleground states, the projections slightly favor the Republicans over the Democrats. As of Nov. 5, Nate Silver's election projections site has Harris leading in Michigan (+1.2) and Wisconsin (+1.0), but losing to Trump in Nevada (-0.6), Georgia (-1.0), North Carolina (-1.1), and Arizona (-2.4). Pennsylvania (-0.1) is a virtual toss-up. 

2024 presidential election Democratic candidate closing odds  

Nomination Winner bet365 Implied probability
Kamala Harris -10,000 99%
Michelle Obama +3,300 2.9%
Hillary Clinton +5,000 2%
Gavin Newsom +10,000 1%
Gretchen Whitmer +15,000 0.7%

Harris was never seriously challenged after she received endorsements from Michelle and Barack Obama, and Hillary and Bill Clinton. Harris' support for Biden was unflagging during their term together, and her bond with the president, and similar stance on matters of national importance, earned his unequivocal support and endorsement.

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James Bisson
Contributor

James Bisson is a contributing writer at Covers. He has been a writer, reporter and editor for more than 20 years, including a nine-year stint with The Canadian Press and more than five years at theScore. He has covered dozens of marquee events including the 2010 Winter Olympics, the 2006 Stanley Cup final and Wrestlemania 23, and his work has appeared in more than 200 publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian, Yahoo! Sports, the Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail.

His book, “100 Greatest Canadian Sports Moments”, was a hardcover best-seller in Canada in 2008 and earned him appearances on CBC Radio and Canada AM. He has written more than 50 sportsbook reviews, more than 200 industry news articles, and dozens of other sportsbook-related content articles.

A graduate of the broadcast journalism program at Ryerson University (now Toronto Metropolitan University), James has been an avid bettor since the early 2000s, and cites bet365 as his favorite sports betting site due to its superior functionality and quick payouts. His biggest professional highlight: Covering Canada's first Olympic gold medal on home soil – and interviewing Bret Hart. Twice.

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