Vice President Kamala Harris remains the betting underdog but is gaining momentum in the US presidential election odds as Election Day continues.
The latest Donald Trump odds suggest the former president is the favorite to win the election, and Trump has received many of the biggest U.S. election bets. However, the VP is making inroads in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, where her odds to win the state are now at +100.
With decision day finally here, will the Democrats find a way back to pole position? Have your say in Covers' US election pick'em contest, and keep up with the latest in our US presidential election betting live blog.
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at  |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
 Donald Trump |
-1400 | 93.3% |
 Kamala Harris |
+800 | 11.1% |
Let's take a closer look at Kamala Harris' presidential election odds and examine the key obstacles that may stand in her path.
Kamala Harris fast facts
| Date of birth | October 20, 1964 |
| Place of birth | Oakland, CA |
| Residence | Washington, DC |
| Political affiliation | Democratic Party |
| Net worth | $8 million USD |
| Education | Howard University (1986); University of California, Hastings College of the Law (1989) |
A true trailblazer in American politics, Harris began her career as a Deputy District Attorney in Alameda County, California, later serving as District Attorney of San Francisco and Attorney General of California, where she gained recognition for her tough stance on crime and progressive initiatives.
In 2017, Harris became just the second African American woman and the first South Asian American senator in history after being elected to represent the state of California.
Known for her tireless advocacy on racial justice, immigration reform, and healthcare, Harris gained national prominence during the 2020 presidential campaign as a candidate for the Democratic nomination. She ultimately became the first woman, first Black person, and first South Asian American to be elected Vice President of the United States, making history and inspiring millions around the world.
She continues to "fight for the people" and deliver for America as a proud member of the Biden-Harris Administration. And while she finds herself trailing in the latest Trump vs. Harris odds, observers should expect to see plenty of odds movement before the market is settled.
2024 presidential election betting odds
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump |
-1400 | 93.3% |
| Kamala Harris |
+800 | 11.1% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Nov. 5, 2024. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.
Obstacles that stand in Harris' path
Harris faces several obstacles on her path to becoming President of the United States, including political polarization and division within the country, which can impact her ability to gather broad bipartisan support. But oddsmakers appear less concerned by the day, having the Democrats a major bump over the past two weeks and narrowing the gap between the Dems and the GOP with news that Harris has officially accepted the party nomination.
Additionally, she will need to navigate the complexities of her own political record and decisions, which may face scrutiny and criticism from opponents and the media. Her tenure as VP has had its share of ups and downs; while she’s continued to advocate for abortion rights and find solutions to the US-Mexico border crisis, both issues have seen significant setbacks under her watch.
Lastly, the historical underrepresentation of women and people of color in top political offices poses a significant barrier. Harris's identity as a woman of Black and South Asian descent brings both opportunities for representation and challenges related to systemic biases and stereotypes. Building a coalition that appeals to a diverse electorate while addressing various policy concerns will be crucial for Harris to overcome these obstacles.
That all said, her approval rating, which was as low as 36.2% just over a month ago, has surged to 44.3% as of Nov. 4 – and her outside-the-box vice presidential pick has largely helped. The Associated Press reported Aug. 6 that Harris tabbed Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to be her running mate – and Walz confirmed the news on X later that day. The closing VP odds had Walz (-300) as a hefty favorite on bet365 over Philadelphia Governor Josh Shapiro (-225).
In the key battleground states, the projections slightly favor the Republicans over the Democrats. As of Nov. 5, Nate Silver's election projections site has Harris leading in Michigan (+1.2) and Wisconsin (+1.0), but losing to Trump in Nevada (-0.6), Georgia (-1.0), North Carolina (-1.1), and Arizona (-2.4). Pennsylvania (-0.1) is a virtual toss-up.
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2024 presidential election Democratic candidate closing odds
| Nomination Winner | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -10,000 | 99% |
| Michelle Obama | +3,300 | 2.9% |
| Hillary Clinton | +5,000 | 2% |
| Gavin Newsom | +10,000 | 1% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +15,000 | 0.7% |
Harris was never seriously challenged after she received endorsements from Michelle and Barack Obama, and Hillary and Bill Clinton. Harris' support for Biden was unflagging during their term together, and her bond with the president, and similar stance on matters of national importance, earned his unequivocal support and endorsement.
