Voters will soon head to the polls in the United States, but bettors are already making their opinions known, sometimes with wagers of five, six, and even seven figures.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is indeed fast approaching, and the exchanges and sportsbooks that are able to take action on the race are reporting serious action. Keep up with the latest in our US presidential election betting live blog.
While Republican Donald Trump is the favorite to win on Nov. 5, there have been some considerable wagers on his opponent, Democrat Kamala Harris. U.S. election odds continue to move.
So, given the interest among bettors and voters, Covers is keeping track of the biggest wagers reported thus far for the 2024 election.
(See something we should know about? Email me at geoff.zochodne@l1.com.)
Biggest Election Bets
Nov. 4 Election Eve action
With polls set to open in hours now, not days, we could soon see a surge of election wagering by stick-and-ball bettors.
Indeed, prediction markets and sportsbooks are preparing for a wave of wagering as we get closer and closer to Election Day.
"With weekend wires and bank transfers clearing this morning, trading on Kalshi is going to ramp up dramatically," a spokesperson for the exchange said Monday morning.
Kalshi also reported on Monday another major wager on the election. The $122,131 bet was placed on Trump to win at odds of around -129, and would pay $94,869.
This may not be the last big bet we see today, so stay tuned!
Update (1:15 p.m. ET): Narrator: it was not the last big bet they saw that day.
Kalshi reported early Monday afternoon that a $697,348 bet had come in on Harris to lose the presidential election at odds of -138.
Meanwhile, the U.K.'s Star Sports reported a £50,000 bet on Harris to win at odds of +120. Both wagers have been added to our table of biggest bets below.
Update (7:00 p.m. ET): Two absolutely massive wagers were reported later in the day by Polymarket, one a $15.2-million bet on Trump to win and the other a $5-million wager on Harris.
Nov. 3 Kamala-mania 2.0
The odds and polls have recently become much more agreeable.
At prediction markets like Kalshi, and sportsbooks like bet365, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are again within arm's length in the race for the White House.
The shortening of the odds now makes them look a lot more like public opinion polling, which suggests a close contest that could come down to the swing states.
It's polling that's helping to spur the shift on the oddsboard as well, such as a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey that put Harris ahead of Trump in Iowa.
The buyback on Harris has become apparent over the past few days, as the vice president's chances of winning on Nov. 5 have gone from 35% or so at Kalshi last week to 49% on Sunday night. One user even wagered $633,056 on Nov. 1 for Harris to win the election, a bet that would pay $773,737.
Oct. 29: Bettors hop on the Trump train
Betting markets and polls are showing a big difference of opinion in who will win the White House in a week.
While polls are predicting a near-run thing in either direction, the betting markets are leaning decidedly in Trump's direction.
Case in point: On Tuesday, someone was willing to wager more than $1.2 million at Kalshi that Trump will win the presidential election, and at a price of approximately 63 cents per contract.
Trump's price at the prediction market also hit an all-time high on Tuesday, at 65 cents.
Bettors at Polymarket and Betfair see the situation similarly. The two companies, which cater to customers outside the U.S., projected Trump's chances of winning at around 67% and 65%, respectively, as of Tuesday evening. Those forecasts are drawn from the latest betting odds.
One Polymarket user in particular could be the most confident person on Earth when it comes to Trump's prospects, the candidate excluded. According to reports, a French national has staked around $45 million on Trump winning and Harris losing come Nov. 5. That wager is by far the largest reported to date this election cycle.
All that said, there have been some significant bets made on Harris as well, including around $2.2 million staked by a Polymarket user earlier this month.
Moreover, as Election Day draws nearer, the whales will doubtlessly continue to make a splash.
| Amount | To Win | Bet | Exchange/Sportsbook | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~$45,000,000 | ~$80,000,000+ | Trump to win, Harris to lose | Polymarket | Multiple wagers |
| $15,212,534 | $9,540,238.22 | Trump (-159) | Polymarket | Nov. 4 |
| $5,020,021.58 | $5,851,308.73 | Harris (+117) | Polymarket | Nov. 4 |
| $3,792,003.06 | $3,864,324.73 | Trump (+102) | Polymarket | Oct. 7 |
| $2,229,598.92 | $2,361,255.45 | Harris (+106) | Polymarket | Oct. 16 |
| $1,227,071 | $752,076 | Trump (-163) | Kalshi | Oct. 29 |
| $1,015,000 | $1,240,550 | Trump to lose (+122) | Kalshi | Oct. 15 |
| $697,348 | $504,977 | Harris to lose (-138) | Kalshi | Nov. 4 |
| $633,056 | $773,737 | Harris (+127) | Kalshi | Nov. 1 |
| $514,955 | $687,370 | Harris (+133) | Kalshi | Oct. 18 |
| $424,800 | $295,200 | Trump (-144) | Kalshi | Oct. 23 |
| $302,470.74 | $11,523,417.40 | Kanye West (seriously) (+3810) | Polymarket | Oct. 23 |
| $246,090 | $193,358 | Trump (-122) | Kalshi | Oct. 16 |
| $175,621 | $286,542 | Harris (+163) | Kalshi | Oct. 28 |
| $162,770 | $162,771 | Harris to lose (+100) | Kalshi | Oct. 8 |
| $142,500 | $107,500 | Harris to lose (-133) | Kalshi | Oct. 21 |
| $135,229 | $158,748 | Harris (+122) | Kalshi | Oct. 15 |
| $132,055 | $103,758 | Trump (-127) | Kalshi | Oct. 15 |
| $125,000 | $86,975 | Trump (-133) | Kalshi |
(Placed by comedian Theo Von) |
| $122,131 | $94,869 | Trump (-129) | Kalshi | |
| ~$114,470 | ~$114,470 | Harris (+100) | Betfair | Sept. 10 |
| $90,000 | $140,769 | Harris to lose (+156) | Kalshi | Oct. 26 |
| $65,228 | $60,211 | Trump (-108) | Kalshi | Oct. 11 |
| ~$64,740 | ~$77,688 | Harris (+120) | Star Sports | Nov. 4 |
| $63,700 | $66,300 | Trump (+104) | Kalshi | Oct. 7 |
| $42,900 | $87,100 | Trump to win popular vote (+203) | Kalshi | Oct. 22 |
Where can I bet on the election?
It depends on where you live.
You can bet on U.S. election odds in the Canadian province of Ontario through Canadian political betting sites in Canada or the U.K. at regulated exchanges and sportsbooks such as bet365, Betfair, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Bettors outside the U.S. are also wagering on the election using Polymarket.
Stateside, it's more complicated. Sportsbooks in the U.S. can't offer election wagering, but exchanges and prediction market operators such as Kalshi, PredictIt, and Robinhood can. Those are your best options for a little legal wagering.
There's also no need to risk your hard-earned money if you want to have a little fun. Covers is running a free-to-play election pick'em contest for bragging rights and a $500 Amazon gift card. You can sign up for that here.
