2024 Republican Party Presidential Nominee Odds: GOP Chooses Trump

Republican support for Donald Trump has never been stronger – at least, based on how easily the former President secured the Republican party nomination for the third consecutive time.

With former GOP nomination betting favorite Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley both pulling out of the race early in 2024, Trump enjoyed a clear path to victory (and so did bettors who struck when the Trump odds were a little less one-sided). While previous Republican candidates criticized Trump for being a tough sell in a general election, the GOP base clearly didn't agree and he's now also the favorite on the presidential election odds board.

This set up a contest between Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, who accepted the Democratic nomination after incumbent President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election. It was a strong summer for the Democrats' side, with Harris becoming the unexpected challenger and Tim Walz defying the vice president odds to become the current VP's running mate.

Here are the Republican party nominee closing odds.

2024 presidential election Republican candidates closing odds

Nomination Winner		Implied probability
Donald Trump	-5,000	98%
Nikki Haley	+1,400	6.7%
Ryan Binkley	+30,000	0.3%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 6, 2024.

Favorites to be the Republican nominee in 2024

Donald Trump

The market odds confirmed what polls, betting markets, political forecasters, and party scholars all agreed upon: The singular favorite to be the 2024 Republican Party presidential nominee could only have been Donald J. Trump. 

Trump has held sway among Republican voters for years despite losing the 2020 election to Biden. In a Pew Research Center survey conducted in December, 52% of Republican voters named Trump as their first choice for president — a whopping 38% more than second-place DeSantis and 41% higher than Haley.  

Trump dominated the first GOP primary in Iowa, earning 51% of votes compared to 21.2% for DeSantis and 19.1% for Haley. DeSantis soon shuttered his campaign and endorsed Trump. The former president then defeated Haley by 11 points in the New Hampshire primary, and the bloodletting continued until Haley's concession in March.

Nikki Haley

Haley's diplomatic credentials as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and executive experience as a former governor made her a serious candidate at one part in the process. But despite her experience and a strong showing in the GOP primary debates (which Trump didn't even bother attending), she officially suspended her campaign on March 6 after crushing defeats in 14 of 15 states on Super Tuesday.

Unlike Ron DeSantis, Haley stopped short of endorsing Trump. "It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that," she told her supporters. "At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people."

Republican party dynamics

The Republican Party remains factionalized due to differences in policy attitudes and governing styles that divide institutionalists and anti-party leader Freedom Caucus firebrands amid the unparalleled specter of Trumpism that looms over all GOP decisions, debates and electoral contests. Trump remains easily the most popular Republican political figure and leads his presidential primary competitors by 30 or more points in public opinion polling. 

Party divisions were on display most prominently in the belabored process of voting Kevin McCarthy as House speaker in January, and his removal from that position last month following an internal party revolt. This process led to rounds of maneuvering and the eventual election of Christian conservative Representative from Louisiana Mike Johnson as House speaker. 

Republican Party dynamics in 2024 will rest on resolving party factions that has left the GOP electorally weakened since the 2018 midterm elections.  As for the race for the presidency itself, unless the anti-Trump faction can successfully coalesce around and promote an alternative to the former president quickly, the question will be whether Trump can seize upon continued loyalty to him on the part of Republican identifiers to recapture the White House.

Key issues and campaign strategies

Spending cuts, taxes, immigration and identity politics issues—including the so-called “war on woke,” as popularized by Ron DeSantis, which plays to the overwhelmingly white Republican electorate’s grievances arising from the diversification of American society and accommodation of alternative lifestyles—will likely define the nomination contest. The candidates have been mostly aligned in adopting hardline immigration policies (following Trump’s lead from 2016 onward) and abortion positions (Haley supports federal 15-week abortion bans, and Trump’s Supreme Court nominees were instrumental in overturning Roe v. Wade, even as his own expressed attitudes toward abortion have been inconsistent over time).  

Haley has claimed to be the most serious candidate in terms of her plans to cut government spending, whereas Ron DeSantis’ economic blueprint largely mirrored Trump’s populist protectionism and promises to makes the former president’s signature 2017 tax cuts permanent. One issue on which Haley has distinguished herself is climate change, as she has acknowledged that the phenomenon is “real” and caused by humans, and even supports carbon-capture technology. Trump, of course, routinely mocks climate change as a “hoax.”

On the issue of the war in Ukraine, Trump has promised to end the conflict within 24 hours of assuming the presidency if he were to win in 2024. Haley, meanwhile, has adopted a position most opposed to the anti-Ukraine Trump faction in calling for a need to support Ukraine stridently in promotion of freedom and democracy.  

Still, after Trump was re-nominated in 2020 on an issue-free, one-page party platform simply pledging allegiance to him and everything for which he stands, highlighting policy differences is unlikely to bear electoral fruit for Trump’s rivals. Instead, Haley is more likely to attempt to tout her executive experience and commitment to movement conservatism, as well as to attack Trump’s character, temperament, and electability following the former president’s false claim that the freely and fairly decided 2020 presidential election was fraudulent. 

Haley has broken with most Republican candidates for federal office by refusing to endorse Trump’s lie that the election was stolen from him. This issue, however, remains the signature litmus test for many Republican voters who believe that Trump should be restored to his rightful office. Mike Pence’s early withdrawal from the primary race highlights in part the perils of Republican political hopefuls contesting Trump’s 2020 election denialism, and Haley is likely to experience the same fate when GOP adherents begin caucusing and voting in primaries in January.

Past Republican presidential nominees

Past Republican nominee trends

1. Republicans have historically favored their apparents

Before the ascension of insurgent Donald Trump in 2016, the contemporary Republican Party had been dominated by heir apparent candidates with extensive governing experience who “waited their turn” in the GOP hierarchy. In 2012, for example, Mitt Romney was the institutionalist choice as the former Massachusetts governor, and in 2008, decorated war hero and Senator John McCain of Arizona was nominated after losing the primary contest to political aristocrat and former Texas Governor George W. Bush in 2000. Before G.W. Bush, longtime Republican Senate leader Bob Dole from Kansas served as the Republican nominee in 1996. Of course, George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid to Bill Clinton in 1992 after serving one term as president and two terms as vice president, as well as serving in the House, as U.S. ambassador to the U.N., C.I.A. director and as chair of the Republican National Committee.

2. Republicans love businesspeople  

Donald Trump represents the archetype of this affinity, but Mitt Romney was also a private equity tycoon, and George W. Bush owned an oil exploration company and later the Texas Rangers Major League Baseball team.

3. Republicans have tended to favor governors over members of Congress or senators

McCain and Dole are exceptions to this rule in that they established their reputations as American war heroes in Vietnam and in World War II, respectively. Romney (Massachusetts), George W. Bush (Texas), and Ronald Reagan (California) before them all served as governors. In fact, the electorate generally has favored governors over senators, as Barack Obama in 2008 was the first sitting senator to be elected president since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Joe Biden was of course a longtime U.S. senator, but he also served more recently as vice president under Obama.

Can you bet on the election in the United States?

No. Legal betting sites U.S. bettors are familiar with do not offer odds on the Republican nomination or the 2024 U.S. Election. However, bettors in other countries can legally bet on the U.S. election. Canadians in particular have several legitimate options courtesy of the top political betting sites when it comes to wagering on the U.S. election. For instance, legal Ontario sports betting sites are permitted to offer election odds, while bettors in other provinces can also place bets via sports betting Canada sites.

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