The 2024 US election was blown wide open with Joe Biden's shocking withdrawal. While Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic presidential nomination, another familiar name is technically still in the mix: Michelle Obama.
Although the wife of former president Barack Obama is ostensibly not in the running, she currently has the fourth-best odds of winning the presidency at +10,000. This is a decline from earlier in the election cycle when she sat as a distant No. 3 option relative to both the Trump odds and Harris odds, as the former First Lady now trails JD Vance (+6,600). Is there anything tangible to this line movement or is it a mix of conspiracy theory and wish fulfillment?
Let's take a closer look at Michelle Obama's presidential election odds and examine the key obstacles that may stand in her path.
Michelle Obama fast facts
| Date of birth | January 17, 1964 |
| Place of birth | Chicago, IL |
| Residence | Washington, DC |
| Political affiliation | Democratic Party |
| Net worth | $70 million USD |
| Education | Princeton University and Harvard University |
A graduate of Princeton and Harvard, Michelle Obama began her career as a lawyer but transitioned to the public sector soon after. While supporting her husband in his political career she was under plenty of scrutiny from the media but saw her popularity rise during her time in the White House.
While Obama has avoided direct involvement in politics, she often advocated for her husband's policies and helped promote his bills. She has also been active in philanthropy, receiving national attention for her advocacy on education and her public health campaign "Let's Move!" which encourages a healthy lifestyle for children.
2024 presidential election betting odds
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at  |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
 Donald Trump |
-138 | 58% |
 Kamala Harris |
+110 | 47.6% |
| JD Vance |
+6,600 | 1.5% |
| Michelle Obama |
<+10,000> | 1% |
| Nikki Haley |
+12,500 | 0.8% |
| Tim Walz |
+15,000 | 0.7% |
| Hillary Clinton |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Oct. 14, 2024. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.
Obamas endorse Harris
There has been plenty of movement on the 2024 presidential election odds board over the last few years but perhaps the biggest move has been Michelle Obama surging from +6,600 to as high as +550 over the last few months before tumbling back down by the end of July.
The most shocking thing about that line movement is that the former First Lady isn't even a candidate, and has always claimed that a career in politics doesn't appeal to her. Seeing Obama listed higher than Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer is a testament to her popularity and the enduring shine of her husband's presidency.
All the speculation can cease, however, as the Obamas officially endorsed Harris for president in late July and again at the DNC in August. With Harris earning the backing of both the Obamas and the Clintons, America is heading for a Trump v. Harris showdown.
Michelle Obama US presidential odds over time
Covers US presidential election betting tools
2024 presidential election Democratic candidate odds
| Nomination Winner | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -10,000 | 99% |
| Michelle Obama | +3,300 | 2.9% |
| Hillary Clinton | +5,000 | 2% |
| Gavin Newsom | +10,000 | 1% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +15,000 | 0.7% |
Obama is still a massive long-shot
Although Michelle Obama was a natural choice to lead the Democratic party, the probability of her winning the presidency is a long shot of epic proportions at this point in the election cycle, and the current odds of +10,000 still don't accurately reflect that.
Smarkets gives Obama a 0.3% chance of winning the upcoming election. In fact, political analyst and former chief strategist for Barack Obama, David Axelrod has said that a Michelle Obama candidacy is just as likely as him dancing in the Bolshoi Ballet.
